Abstract
The leading mode of the atmospheric background flow over the North Atlantic–Arctic Ocean (i.e., 300-hPa meridional wind; V300-EOF1) exhibited notable decadal variations during 1979–2019, with intensified V300-EOF1 since the early-2000s. The modulation of the interdecadal change in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by the V300-EOF1 mode and its link with the concurrently warmer North Atlantic and low Arctic sea ice was explored through observational analysis and numerical simulations. The results indicated that the intensified V300-EOF1 mode enhanced the modulation of Rossby wave trains propagating from the North Atlantic–Arctic region to East Asia, which interfered with the climatological quasi-stationary waves to induce a stronger EAWM. The widespread North Atlantic–Arctic warming tended to modulate and interact with this V300-EOF1 background flow, which further enhanced the quasi-stationary Rossby waves along the midlatitude and sub-polar waveguides, resulting in a strengthened EAWM and cold East Asia. This finding was further verified by numerical experiments conducted with an atmospheric model. The model responses generally captured the observed physical processes, albeit weaker in magnitude, suggestive of a modulating role played by external forcings in the enhancement of the V300-EOF1 mode and the EAWM. Noting also the large internal variability in the atmospheric responses, with approximately half of the model years capturing a stronger-than-average East Asian cooling along with deep and strong Arctic warming. This further indicates the importance of atmospheric internal variability in the development of the V300-EOF1 mode. These results have implications for future changes in the EAWM and concomitant East Asian cooling on interdecadal timescales.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Årthun M, Eldevik T, Smedsrud LH et al (2012) Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. J Clim 25(13):4736–4743. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00466.1
Barnes EA (2013) Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett 40:4728–4733. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880
Blackport R, Kushner PJ (2018) The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 31:9193–9206. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0192.1
Blackport R, Screen JA, van der Wiel K et al (2019) Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nat Clim Change 9:697–704
Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12:1990–2009. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3c1990:TENOSD%3e2.0.CO;2
Chang C, Wang Z, Hendon H (2006) The Asian winter monsoon. In: Wang B (ed) The Asian monsoon. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 89–127
Chen W, Wang L, Feng J et al (2019) Recent progress in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Adv Atmos Sci 36(9):887–901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8230-y
Chen L, Zhang R, Pryor SC, Li X, Wang H (2020) Influence of wintertime surface sensible heat flux variability over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 54:4589–4603. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05246-x
Chen YD, Luo L, Zhong L (2021) North Atlantic multidecadal footprint of the recent winter warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern. Clim Dyn 57:121–139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05698-9
Chowdary JS, Hu K, Srinivas G et al (2019) The Eurasian jet streams as conduits for east Asian monsoon variability. Curr Clim Change Rep 5:233–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00134-x
Chylek P, Klett JD, Lesins G et al (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate. Geophys Res Lett 41:1689–1697. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059274
Cohen JL, Furtado JC, Barlow MA et al (2012) Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett 7:14007–14014
Cohen J, Zhang X, Francis J, Francis J, Jung T, Kwok R et al (2020) Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nat Clim Change 10:20–29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y
Davini P, von Hardenberg J, Corti S (2015) Tropical origin for the impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on the Euro-Atlantic climate. Environ Res Lett 10:094010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094010
Day JJ, Hargreaves JC, Annan JD et al (2012) Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environ Res Lett 7:034011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011
Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S, Phillips AS (2012) Communication of the role of natural variability in future north american climate. Nat Clim Change 2(12):775–779
Deser C, Coauthors (2020) Insights fromEarth systemmodel initialcondition large ensembles and future prospects. Nat Clim Change 10:277–286. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2
Ding Y, Coauthors (2014) Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change. J Meteorol Res 28:693–713. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4046-y
Eichelberger SJ, Hartmann DL (2007) Zonal jet structure and the leading mode of variability. J Clim 20:5149–5163. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4279.1
Fan S, Yang X (2017) Arctic and east Asia winter climate variations associated with the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. J Clim 30:573–583
Francis JA, Chan W, Leathers DJ (2009) Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36:L07503. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037274
Gastineau G, Frankignoul C (2015) Influence of the North Atlantic SST variability on the atmospheric circulation during the twentieth century. J Clim 28:1396–1416. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00424.1
Gerber EP, Vallis GK (2009) On the zonal structure of the North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes. J Atmos Sci 66:332–352
Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28:2073–2076
Graff LS, LaCasce JH (2012) Changes in the extratropical storm tracks in response to changes in SST in an AGCM. J Clim 25:1854–1870
Guo Z, Liu T, Guiot J et al (1996) High frequency pulses of East Asian monsoon climate in the last two glaciations: link with the North Atlantic. Clim Dyn 12:701–709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050137
Han Z, Li SL, Mu M (2011) The role of warm North Atlantic SST in the formation of positive height anomalies over the Ural Mountains during January 2008. Adv Atmos Sci 28:246–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-0069-1
Hao X, He SP, Wang HJ (2016) Asymmetry in the response of central Eurasian winter temperature to AMO. Clim Dyn 47:2139–2154. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2955-9
Harada Y, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Onoda H, Onogi K, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2016) The JRA-55 reanalysis: representation of atmospheric circulation and climate variability. J Meteorol Soc Japan 94:269–302. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-015
He S, Xu X, Furevik T, Gao Y (2020) Eurasian cooling linked to the vertical distribution of Arctic warming. Geophys Res Lett 47:e2020GL087212. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087212
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteor Soc 146:1999–2049
Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S (2009) Influence of low Arctic sea ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 36:262–275
Hoskins BJ, James IN, White GH (1983) The shape, propagation and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J Atmos Sci 40:1595–1612
Huang R, Coauthors (2012) Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system. Adv Atmos Sci 29:910–942. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2015-x
Huang R, Chen J, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:993–1023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x
Huang D, Dai A, Yang B et al (2019) Contributions of different combinations of the IPO and AMO to recent changes in winter east Asian Jets. J Clim 32:1607–1626. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0218.1
Inoue J, Hori ME, Takaya K (2012) The role of Barents sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly. J Clim 25:2561–2568. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00449.1
Jacobeit J, Wanner H, Luterbacher J et al (2003) Atmospheric circulation variability in the North-Atlantic-European area since the mid-seventeenth century. Clim Dyn 20:341–352. https://doi.org/10.1007/s0382-002-0278-0
Jhun JG, Lee EJ (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726
Jiang ZH, Yang H, Liu ZY et al (2014) Assessing the influence of regional SST modes on the winter temperature in China: the effect of tropical Pacific and Atlantic. J Clim 27:868–879. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00847.1
Jung O, Sung MK, Sato K, Lim YK, Kim SJ, Baek EH et al (2017) How does the SST variability over the western north Atlantic ocean control Arctic warming over the Barents-Kara Seas? Environ Res Lett 12(3):034021
Karoly D, Hoskins B (1982) Three-dimensional propagation of planetary waves. J Meteorol Soc Japan 60:109–123. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.60.1_109
Kay JE, Coauthors (2015) The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1333–1349. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
Li SL, Bates GT (2007) Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the winter climate of East China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:126–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0126-6
Li SL, Wang YM, Gao YQ (2009) A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and its climate influence. Trans Atmos Sci 32:458–465
Li F, Orsolini YJ, Wang H, Gao Y, He S (2018) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation modulates the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline. Geophys Res Lett 45:2497–2506. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076210
Liu Y, Wang L, Zhou W et al (2014) Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns: spatial structures, temporal variability, and associated winter climate anomalies. Clim Dyn 42:2817–2839. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2163-z
Luo D, Chen Y, Dai A et al (2017) Winter Eurasian cooling linked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Environ Res Lett 12:125002
Maher N, Coauthors (2019) The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability. J Adv Model Earth Syst 11:2050–2069. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639
Marsh D, Mills M, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF (2013) Climate change from 1850 to 2005 simulated in CESM1(WACCM). J Clim 26:7372–7391. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1
Meehl GA, Hu A (2006) Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multidecadal pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 19:1605–1623
Meehl GA, Hu AX, Castruccio F et al (2021) Atlantic and Pacific tropics connected by mutually interactive decadal-timescale processes. Nat Geosci 14:36–42
Miao J, Jiang D (2021) Multidecadal variations in the East Asian winter monsoon and their relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1850. J Clim 34:7525–7539
Miao J, Wang T (2020) Decadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon in recent decades. Atmos Sci Lett 21(4):e960. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.960
Miao J, Wang T, Wang H, Zhu Y, Sun J (2018) Interdecadal weakening of the east Asian winter monsoon in the mid-1980s: the roles of external forcings. J Clim 31(21):8985–9000
Miles MW, Divine DV, Furevik T et al (2014) A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice. Geophys Res Lett 41:463–469. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058084
Minobe S, Kuwano-Yoshida A, Komori N et al (2008) Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere. Nature 452:206–209. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06690
Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H et al (2014) Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2277
Msadek R, Frankignoul C, Li L (2011) Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study. Clim Dyn 36:1255–1276
Nakamura T, Yamazaki K, Iwamoto K et al (2015) A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:3209–3227. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022848
Nakanowatari T, Sato K, Inoue J (2014) Predictability of the barents sea ice in early winter: remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the north atlantic. J Clim 27(23):8884–8901
North G, Bell T, Cahalan F, Moeng J (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110%3c0699:SEITEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Overland JE, Francis JA, Hall R et al (2015) The melting Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns: are they connected? J Clim 28:7917–7932. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1
Peings Y, Magnusdottir G (2014) Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean. Environ Res Lett 9:034018
Rayner NA, Coauthors (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Robson J, Sutton R, Lohmann K et al (2012) Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s. J Clim 25:4116–4134
Robson J, Ortega P, Sutton R (2016) A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005. Nat Geosci 9:513–517
Sampe T, Nakamura H, Goto A et al (2010) Significance of a midlatitude SST frontal zone in the formation of a storm track and an eddy-driven westerly jet. J Clim 23:1793–1814. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3163.1
Sardeshmukh PD, Hoskins BJ (1988) The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J Atmos Sci 45:1228–1251. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045,1228:TGOGRF.2.0.CO;2
Sato K, Inoue J, Watanabe M (2014) Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter. Environ Res Lett 9:084009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084009
Schlesinger ME, Ramankutty N (1994) An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367:723–726
Screen JA, Simmonds I, Deser C, Tomas R (2013) The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 26:1230–1248. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1
Sun C, Yang S, Li W, Zhang R (2016a) Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 47:481–496
Sun J, Wu S, Ao J (2016b) Role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability. Clim Dyn 46:3793–3805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2805-9
Sun C, Zhang R, Li W et al (2019) Possible impact of North Atlantic warming on the decadal change in the dominant modes of winter Eurasian snow water equivalent during 1979–2015. Clim Dyn 53:5203–5213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04853-7
Sung MK, Kim SH, Kim BM et al (2018) Interdecadal variability of the warm Arctic and cold Eurasia pattern and its North Atlantic origin. J Clim 31:5793–5810. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0562.1
Sutton RT, Dong B (2012) Atlantic ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat Geosci 5(11):788–792
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2001) A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58:608–627
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2005a) Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian high. J Atmos Sci 62:4423–4440
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2005b) Geographical dependence of upper-level blocking formation associated with intraseasonal amplification of the Siberian High. J Atmos Sci 58:4441–4449
Teng H, Branstator G (2012) A zonal wavenumber 3 pattern of Northern Hemisphere wintertime planetary wave variability at high latitudes. J Clim 25:6756–6769. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00664.1
Wang B (1992) The vertical structure and development of the ENSO anomaly mode during 1979–1989. J Atmos Sci 49(8):698–712
Wang L, Chen W (2014) An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1
Wang L, Lu MM (2017) The East Asian winter monsoon. In: Chang CP (ed) The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 3rd edn. World Scientific, pp 51–61
Wang SW, Zhu JH, Cai JN (2004) Interdecadal variability of temperature and precipitation in China since 1880. Adv Atmos Sci 21:307–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915560
Wang L, Huang RH, Gu L et al (2009a) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. J Clim 22:4860–4872
Wang YM, Li SL, Luo DH (2009b) Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J Geophys Res 114:D02112. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010929
Wang B, Wu ZW, Chang CP et al (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: the Northern and Southern Temperature Modes. J Clim 23:1495–1512
Watanabe M, Nitta T (1999) Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J Clim 12:494–510
Wei FY (2007) Modern Technology of Statistics, diagnosis and forecast for climate. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Woollings T, Hoskins B, Blackburn M et al (2008) A new Rossby Wave breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 65:609–626
Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins BJ (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Q J R Meteorol Soc 649:856–868
Wu MC, Chan JCL (1997) Upper-level features associated with winter monsoon surges over south China. Mon Weather Rev 125:317–340. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3150.1
Wu B, Su JZ, Zhang RH (2011) Effects of autumn–winter arctic sea ice on winter Siberian high. Chin Sci Bull 56:3220–3228
Wu T, Lu Y, Fang Y et al (2019) The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev 12:1573–1600. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019
Xu M et al (2021) Impact of sea ice reduction in the barents and kara seas on the variation of the East Asian trough in late winter. J Clim 34(3):1081–1097
Yao SL, Luo JJ, Huang G, Wang P (2018) Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes. Nat Clim Change 7:486–491. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3304
Yu L, Weller RA (2007) Objectively analyzed air–sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981–2005). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:527–539. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-4-527
Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33(17):123–154
Zhang RN, Screen JA (2021) Diverse Eurasian winter temperature responses to Barents–Kara Sea ice anomalies of different magnitudes and seasonality. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2021GL092726
Zhang J, Tian W, Chipperfield M et al (2016) Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades. Nat Clim Change 6:1094–1099
Zhang J, Xie F, Ma Z, Zhang C, Xu M, Wang T, Zhang R (2019a) Seasonal evolution of the quasi-biennial oscillation impact on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in winter. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:12568–12586. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030-966
Zhang RN, Sun C, Zhang RH, Li W, Zuo J (2019b) Role of Eurasian snow cover in linking winter-spring Eurasian coldness to the autumn Arctic sea ice retreat. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:9205–9221. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030339
Zhang RN, Zhang RH, Dai GK (2021) Intraseasonal contributions of Arctic sea-ice loss and Pacific decadal oscillation to a century cold event during early 2020/21 winter. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05931-5
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grants 2019YFC1509105 and 2019YFC1510104), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41790472 and 42075016), and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grants 2021Z004 and 2021Z007).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, R., Zhang, R. & Sun, C. Modulation of the interdecadal variation of atmospheric background flow on the recent recovery of the EAWM during the 2000s and its link with North Atlantic–Arctic warming. Clim Dyn 59, 561–578 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06152-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06152-0