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Asymmetry of probabilistic prediction skills of the midsummer surface air temperature over the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River valley

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Abstract

Using the prediction data from the Global Seasonal Forecast version 5 (GloSea5) during the 1993–2016 period, the probabilistic prediction skills of the midsummer (July and August) surface air temperature (SAT) over the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River valley (MLYR) are evaluated by the ranked probabilistic skill score. We found that the GloSea5 better predicts below-normal (BN) events than above-normal (AN) events at a long lead time, as well as the associated western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) anomaly. This result reveals the asymmetry of the probabilistic prediction skills of the midsummer MLYR SAT, which is related to the asymmetric effect of predictability sources: the warm midsummer ENSO favors BN events via promoting the eastward retreat of the WPSH, whereas the cold midsummer ENSO exhibits weak effect on AN events due to the induced southwestward expansion of the WPSH; the warm mid-latitude North Atlantic (MNA) promotes AN events via projecting its influence onto the atmospheric teleconnections such as the CGT, but not vice versa. The GloSea5 exhibits strong response to both two predictability sources, but fails to reproduce the asymmetric effect of predictability sources especially for ENSO, which limits the prediction skills of AN events. On the other hand, the worse (better) simulations of the warm MNA (warm midsummer ENSO) lead to the lower (higher) prediction skills of AN (BN) events. These results are useful for better understanding the predictability of the midsummer SAT over the MLYR.

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Acknowledgements

This study acknowledges the support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1502303), the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41905057, 41975088, 41975098, 41875101), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (2021T140757), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University, Sun Yat-sen University (2021qntd29), and the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (No. 311021009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

    Shankai Tang, Taichen Feng, Yu Wang & Guolin Feng

  2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China

    Shaobo Qiao & Yang Yang

  3. College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China

    Guolin Feng

  4. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

    Shaobo Qiao & Guolin Feng

  5. National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Zhisen Zhang

  6. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Guolin Feng

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  1. Shankai Tang
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Tang, S., Qiao, S., Feng, T. et al. Asymmetry of probabilistic prediction skills of the midsummer surface air temperature over the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River valley. Clim Dyn 57, 3285–3302 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05866-x

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