Skip to main content

Understanding the East Asian winter monsoon in 2018 from the intraseasonal perspective

Abstract

The East Asian winter monsoon in 2018 winter is characterized by below-normal surface air temperature (SAT) over central Siberia and eastern China when the winter mean is considered and by three cold waves when the intraseasonal variability, whose timescale is shorter than a season, is concerned. The three cold waves only consist of approximately 2 weeks, but they play a primary role in shaping the SAT pattern in the winter mean field. Nevertheless, the atmospheric circulation anomalies that shape the SAT pattern during the cold waves cannot be reflected well in the winter mean fields. It leads to insufficiencies to explain the winter mean SAT pattern by examining the winter mean circulation alone. In contrast, the SAT pattern formation can be better interpreted when the role of cold waves is considered. These results suggest that the common approach in climate science to examine the seasonal mean variables alone in understanding the seasonal behaviors of climate misses some crucial aspects, at least for this particular winter, and that the intraseasonal variability should be taken into account to supplement these missing aspects. It is recommended that the influences of intraseasonal variability on the climatic behavior of the East Asian winter monsoon be studied comprehensively in the future to portrait a complete picture of this issue.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

References

  1. Chang CP, Lu MM (2012) Intraseasonal predictability of Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon and its interdecadal variability. J Clim 25:1773–1778

    Google Scholar 

  2. Chang CP, Harr PA, Chen HJ (2005) Synoptic disturbances over the equatorial South China Sea and western Maritime Continent during boreal winter. Mon Weather Rev 133:489–503

    Google Scholar 

  3. Chang CP, Wang Z, Hendon H (2006) The Asian winter monsoon. In: Wang B (ed) The Asian monsoon. Springer Praxis Books. Springer, Berlin, pp 89–127

    Google Scholar 

  4. Chang CP, Lu MM, Wang S (2011) The East Asian winter monsoon. In: Chang CP, Ding YH, Lau NC, Johnson RH, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 99–109

    Google Scholar 

  5. Chen W, Li T (2007) Modulation of Northern hemisphere wintertime stationary planetary wave activity: East Asian climate relationships by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. J Geophys Res 112:D20120. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008611

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Chen W, Graf HF, Huang R (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 17:48–60

    Google Scholar 

  7. Chen W, Yang S, Huang R (2005) Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J Geophys Res 110:D14110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. National Climate Center (2018) China climate impact assessment. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration. Report No. 12. 14

  9. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ (1994) An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman and Hall/CRC, New York

    Google Scholar 

  10. Fan H, Wang L, Zhang Y, Tang Y, Duan W, Wang L (2020) Predictable patterns of wintertime surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere and their predictability sources in the SEAS5. J Clim 33:10743–10754

    Google Scholar 

  11. Gong Z, Feng G, Ren F, Li J (2014) A regional extreme low temperature event and its main atmospheric contributing factors. Theor Appl Climatol 117:195–206

    Google Scholar 

  12. Hartmann DL (2002) Climate. In: Holton JR, Pyle J, Curry JA (eds) Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, New York, pp 403–411

    Google Scholar 

  13. Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S (2009) Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 36:L08707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Hu K, Huang G, Wu R, Wang L (2018) Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate. Clim Dyn 51:4123–4137

    Google Scholar 

  15. Inoue J, Hori ME, Takaya K (2012) The role of Barents sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian anomaly. J Clim 25:2561–2568

    Google Scholar 

  16. Jian Y, Lin X, Zhou W, Jian M, Leung MYT, Cheung PKY (2020) Analysis of record-high temperature over Southeast coastal China in winter 2018/19: the combined effect of mid- to high-latitude circulation systems and SST forcing over the north Atlantic and tropical western Pacific. J Clim 33:8813–8831

    Google Scholar 

  17. Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 93:5–48

    Google Scholar 

  18. Lau NC, Holopainen EO (1984) Transient eddy forcing of the time-mean flow as identified by geopotential tendencies. J Atmos Sci 41:313–328

    Google Scholar 

  19. Lee JY, Lee SS, Wang B, Ha KJ, Jhun JG (2013) Seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian winter temperature variability. Clim Dyn 41:573–587

    Google Scholar 

  20. Li X, Wen Z, Huang WR (2020) Modulation of south Asian jet wave train on the extreme winter precipitation over Southeast China: comparison between 2015/16 and 2018/19. J Clim 33:4065–4081

    Google Scholar 

  21. Liu Y, Wang L, Zhou W, Chen W (2014) Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns: spatial structures, temporal variability, and associated winter climate anomalies. Clim Dyn 42:2817–2839

    Google Scholar 

  22. Liu Q, Chen G, Wang L, Kanno Y, Iwasaki T (2021) Southward cold airmass flux associated with the East Asian winter monsoon: diversity and impacts. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0319.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Luo D, Xiao Y, Diao Y, Dai A, Franzke CLE, Simmonds I (2016a) Impact of ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-Cold Eurasian anomalies. Part II: the link to the North Atlantic oscillation. J Clim 29:3949–3971

    Google Scholar 

  24. Luo D, Xiao Y, Yao Y, Dai A, Simmonds I, Franzke CLE (2016b) Impact of ural blocking on winter Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: blocking-induced amplification. J Clim 29:3925–3947

    Google Scholar 

  25. Ma S, Zhu C (2019) Extreme cold wave over East Asia in January 2016: a possible response to the larger internal atmospheric variability induced by Arctic warming. J Clim 32:1203–1216

    Google Scholar 

  26. Miyazaki C, Yasunari T (2008) Dominant interannual and decadal variability of winter surface air temperature over Asia and the surrounding oceans. J Clim 21:1371–1386

    Google Scholar 

  27. Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H, Inoue J, Kimoto M (2014) Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat Geosci 7:869–873

    Google Scholar 

  28. Nakamura H, Nishii K, Wang L, Orsolini YJ, Takaya K (2016) Cold-air outbreaks over East Asia associated with blocking highs: mechanisms and their interaction with the polar stratosphere. In: Li J, Swinbank R, Grotjahn R, Volkert H (eds) Dynamics and predictability of large-scale high-impact weather and climate events. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 225–236

    Google Scholar 

  29. Oldenborgh GJV, Mitchell-Larson E, Vecchi GA, Vries HD, Vautard R, Otto F (2019) Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes. Environ Res Lett 14:114004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Shen H, Zhao J, Cheung KY, Chen L, Yu X, Wen T, Gong Z, Feng G (2021) Causes of the extreme snowfall anomaly over the northeast Tibetan plateau in early winter 2018. Clim Dyn 56:1767–1782

    Google Scholar 

  31. Song L, Wang L, Chen W, Zhang Y (2016) Intraseasonal variation of the strength of the East Asian trough and its climatic impacts in boreal winter. J Clim 29:2557–2577

    Google Scholar 

  32. Sun C, Yang S, Li W, Zhang R, Wu R (2016) Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 47:481–496

    Google Scholar 

  33. Takaya K, Nakamura H (2005) Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian High. J Atmos Sci 62:4423–4440

    Google Scholar 

  34. Takaya K, Nakamura H (2013) Interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and related modulations of the planetary waves. J Clim 26:9445–9461

    Google Scholar 

  35. Tian B, Fan K, Yang H (2018) East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP’s climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 51:2793–2805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4045-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Wang L, Chen W (2014a) The East Asian winter monsoon: re-amplification in the mid-2000s. Chin Sci Bull 59:430–436

    Google Scholar 

  37. Wang L, Chen W (2014b) An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 27:2361–2374

    Google Scholar 

  38. Wang L, Feng J (2011) Two major modes of the wintertime precipitation over China. Chin J Atmos Sci 35:1105–1116

    Google Scholar 

  39. Wang L, Lu MM (2017) The East Asian winter monsoon. In: Chang CP, Kuo HC, Lau NC, Johnson RH, Wang B, Wheeler MC (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 3rd edn. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 51–61

    Google Scholar 

  40. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Google Scholar 

  41. Wang L, Huang R, Gu L, Chen W, Kang L (2009) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. J Clim 22:4860–4872

    Google Scholar 

  42. Wei W, Wang L, Chen Q, Liu Y (2014) Interannual variations of early and late winter temperatures in China and their linkage. Chin J Atmos Sci 38:524–536

    Google Scholar 

  43. Wei W, Wang L, Chen Q, Liu Y, Li Z (2020) Definition of early and late winter and associated interannual variations of surface air temperature in China. Chin J Atmos Sci 44:122–137

    Google Scholar 

  44. Wu R, Hu ZZ, Kirtman BP (2003) Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in East Asia. J Clim 16:3742–3758

    Google Scholar 

  45. Wu B, Su J, Zhang R (2011) Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High. Chin Sci Bull 56:3220–3228

    Google Scholar 

  46. Wu J, Liu Q, Cui QY, Xu DK, Wang L, Shen CM, Chu GQ, Liu JQ (2019) Shrinkage of East Asia winter monsoon associated with increased ENSO events since the mid-Holocene. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:3839–3848

    Google Scholar 

  47. Xiao D, Zuo Z, Zhang R, Zhang X, He Q (2018) Year-to-year variability of surface air temperature over China in winter. Int J Climatol 38:1692–2170

    Google Scholar 

  48. Yang S, Li T (2016) Intraseasonal variability of air temperature over the mid-high latitude Eurasia in boreal winter. Clim Dyn 47:2155–2175

    Google Scholar 

  49. Yao Y, Luo D, Dai A, Simmonds I (2017) Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming. Part I: insights from observational analyses. J Clim 30:3549–3568

    Google Scholar 

  50. Žagar N, Zaplotnik Z, Karami K (2020) Atmospheric subseasonal variability and circulation regimes: spectra, trends and uncertainties. J Clim 33:1–42

    Google Scholar 

  51. Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the ’86/87 and ’91/92 events. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:49–62

    Google Scholar 

  52. Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1999) A diagnostic study of the impact of El niño on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci 16:229–241

    Google Scholar 

  53. Zhou B, Gu L, Ding Y, Shao L, Wu Z, Yang X, Li C, Li Z, Wang X, Cao Y, Zeng B, Yu M, Wang M, Wang S, Sun H, Duan A, An Y, Wang X, Kong W (2011) The great 2008 Chinese ice storm: its socioeconomic-ecological impact and sustainability lessons learned. Bull Am Meteor Soc 92:47–60

    Google Scholar 

  54. Zuo Z, Zhang R, Huang Y, Xiao D, Guo D (2015) Extreme cold and warm events over China in wintertime. Int J Climatol 35:3568–3581

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925020, 41721004) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDY-SSW-DQC024).

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lin Wang.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, L., Zheng, C. & Liu, Y. Understanding the East Asian winter monsoon in 2018 from the intraseasonal perspective. Clim Dyn 57, 2053–2062 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05793-x

Download citation

Keywords

  • Asian monsoon
  • Intraseasonal variability
  • Seasonal variability
  • Climate variability