Abstract
This study based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble finds that models with lesser (larger) summer mean precipitation wet bias over the equatorial eastern Atlantic (EEA) Ocean tend to project larger (lesser) increase in summer monsoon precipitation over central India (CIND) under increased greenhouse gas forcing. This excessive summer precipitation error over the equatorial Atlantic is physically consistent with the present understanding of the cold tongue error over the EEA and its teleconnection with Indian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 models. The present analysis applied an observational constraint of the EEA precipitation on this present–future emergent relationship to reduce the inter-model spread in the projected summer monsoon precipitation over CIND. This proposed emergent constraint resulted in more robust magnitude of projected increases in future summer monsoon precipitation over CIND.
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Acknowledgements
The Director, IITM is gratefully acknowledged for extending full support to carry out this research work. IITM receives full support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. The authors thank Dr. R. Krishnan, Executive Director, CCCR, IITM for guidance and constructive comments on this study. We wish to thank two anonymous reviewers as well as the Editor for their valuable comments and suggestions, which improved the manuscript. The World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, responsible panel for CMIP5 and CMIP6 are sincerely acknowledged. The climate modelling groups (listed in Table S1 and S2) are sincerely thanked for producing and making available their model output for global and regional climate research. The Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure (ESGF; http://esgf.llnl.gov/index.html) is also acknowledged for archiving and providing access to the CMIP dataset. The HadISST data were obtained from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. The GPCP precipitation data were obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html. The Climate Data Operators software (CDO; https://code.zmaw.de/projects/cdo/), the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS; http://cola.gmu.edu/grads/grads.php) and the NCAR Command Language (NCL; https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/) were extensively used throughout this analysis.
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Shamal, M., Sanjay, J. An observational equatorial Atlantic Ocean constraint on Indian monsoon precipitation projections. Clim Dyn 57, 209–221 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05703-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05703-1