Abstract
The multidecadal regulation of wintertime extreme cold temperatures over Eurasia by the change of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from 1950–1983 (P1) to 1984–2017 (P2) is examined in this paper. The warm Arctic–cold Siberia (WACS) trend pattern shows a distinct interdecadal transition from P1 to P2, which has a footprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The positive trend of the WACS pattern during P2 coincides with the transition of AMO from its negative phase (AMO−) to positive phase (AMO+). The sea-ice reduction in Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) owing to AMO+ contributes to the BKS warming in the WACS pattern trend, while it also reduces the meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) over Eurasia and increases the persistence of Ural blocking (UB), thus favoring a positive WACS trend, especially a Siberian cooling trend during P2. During P1, when the AMO changes from AMO+ to AMO−, a reversed WACS pattern trend is seen because UB shows a shortened duration due to intensified PVy over Eurasia caused by increased BKS sea ice. In addition, the North Atlantic SST forcing on the WACS also shows a multiple time-scale feature. Embedded in the multidecadal timescale (≥ 50 years) of AMO, the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT) pattern can also significantly influence the Siberian cold anomaly on decadal (10–30 years) time scales not by the BKS sea-ice decline. Even during the suppressed WACS trend period (P1) from AMO+ to AMO−, a positive WACS pattern is still seen during 1960–1970, which is mainly dominated by the NAT pattern through generating a negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation with UB.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Årthun M, Eldevik T, Smedsrud LH (2019) The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. J Clim 32:3327–3341. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0750.1
Chylek P, Folland CK, Lesins G, Dubey MK, Wang M (2009) Arctic air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 36:L14801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl038777
Dai XG, Wang P (2018) Identifying the early 2000s hiatus associated with internal climate variability. Sci Rep 8:13602. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31862-z
Dai A, Fyfe JC, Xie SP, Dai X (2015) Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nat Clim Change 5:555–560. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605
Davini P, Cagnazzo C, Gualdi S, Navarra A (2012) Bidimensional diagnostics, variability, and trends of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J Clim 25(19):6496–6509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00032.1
Duchon C (1979) Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions. J Appl Meteorol 18(8):1016–1022. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<1016
Easterling DR, Wehner MF (2009) Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys Res Lett 36:L08706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037810
Emery WJ, Thomson RE (2004) Data analysis methods in physical oceanography, 3rd edn. Elsevier Science, New York, pp 533–539
Fyfe JC, Meehl GA, England MH, Mann ME, Santer BD, Flato GM, Hawkins E, Gillett NP, Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Swart NC (2016) Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nat Clim Change 6(3):224–228. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938
Guan X, Huang J, Guo R, Lin P (2015) The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere. Sci Rep 5:12669. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345
Hegerl GC, Brönnimann S, Schurer A, Cowan T (2018) The early 20th century warming: anomalies, causes, and consequences. WIREs Clim Change 9:e522. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.522
Huang J, Xie Y, Guan X, Li D, Ji F (2017) The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 48(1):429–446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3085-8
Jin C, Wang B, Yang Y-M, Liu J (2020) “Warm Arctic‐cold Siberia” as an internal mode instigated by North Atlantic warming. Geophys Res Lett 47:e2019GL086248. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086248
Johannessen OM, Kuzmina SI, Bobylev LP, Miles MW (2016) Surface air temperature variability and trends in the Arctic: new amplification assessment and regionalisation. Tellus A 68(1):28234. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.28234
Kosaka Y, Xie SP (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501(7467):403–407. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534
Kravtsov S, Wyatt MG, Curry JA, Tsonis AA (2014) Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century. Geophys Res Lett 41(19):6881–6888. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061416
Lean JL, Rind DH (2008) How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophys Res Lett 35:L18701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034864
Li F, Orsolini YJ, Wang H, Gao Y, He S (2018) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation modulates the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline. Geophys Res Lett 45:2497–2506. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076210
Luo D, Xiao Y, Diao Y, Dai A, Franzke CLE, Simmonds I (2016a) Impact of ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part II: the link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim 29(11):3949–3971. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0612.1
Luo D, Xiao Y, Yao Y, Dai A, Simmonds I, Franzke CLE (2016b) Impact of ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: blocking-induced amplification. J Clim 29(11):3925–3947. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0611.1
Luo D, Chen Y, Dai A, Mu M, Zhang R, Simmonds I (2017) Winter Eurasian cooling linked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Environ Res Lett 12:125002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8de8
Luo D, Chen X, Overland J, Simmonds I, Wu Y, Zhang P (2019) Weakened potential vorticity barrier linked to recent winter Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude cold extremes. J Clim 32:4235–4261. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0449.1
Mann ME, Steinman BA, Miller SK (2014) On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO. Geophys Res Lett 41:3211–3219. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059233
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Fasullo JT, Hu A, Trenberth KE (2011) Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nat Clim Change 1(7):360–364. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229
Meehl GA, Hu A, Arblaster JM, Fasullo JT, Trenberth KE (2013) Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J Clim 26:7298–7310. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
Peings Y, Magnusdottir G (2014) Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean. Environ Res Lett 9:034018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018
Santer B, Bonfils C, Painter J, Zelinka M, Mears C, Solomon S, Schmidt G, Fyfe J, Cole J, Nazarenko L, Taylor K, Wentz F (2014) Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat Geosci 7:185–189. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098
Scherrer SC, Croci-Maspoli M, Schwierz C, Appenzeller C (2006) Two-dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region. Int J Climatol 26:233–249. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1250
Schlichtholz P (2011) Influence of oceanic heat variability on sea ice anomalies in the Nordic Seas. Geophys Res Lett 38:L05705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045894
Schmidt G, Shindell D, Tsigaridis K (2014) Reconciling warming trends. Nat Geosci 7:158–160. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2105
Shepherd TG (2016) Effects of a warming Arctic. Science 353(6303):989–990. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349
Smith TM, Peterson TC, Lawrimore JH, Reynolds RW (2005) New surface temperature analyses for climate monitoring. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14712. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023402
Steinman BA, Mann ME, Miller SK (2015) Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Science 347(6225):988–991. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257856
Sung M, Kim S, Kim B, Choi Y (2018) Interdecadal variability of the warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia pattern and its North Atlantic Origin. J Clim 31:5793–5810. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0562.1
Tibaldi S, Molteni F (1990) On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus 42A:343–365. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x
Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79(1):61–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2013) An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earths Future 1:19–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000165
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Branstator G, Phillips AS (2014) Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat Clim Change 4:911–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341
Tyrlis E, Bader J, Manzini E, Ukita J, Nakamura H, Matei D (2020) On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia pattern. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:2138–2153. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784
Wyatt MG, Kravtsov S, Tsonis AA (2012) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability. Clim Dyn 38:929–949. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8
Yao Y, Luo D, Dai A, Simmonds I (2017) Increased Quasi stationarity and persistence of winter ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming. Part I: insights from observational analyses. J Clim 30(10):3549–3568. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0261.1
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0601802), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41790473) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (XDA 19070403) for their funding.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, Y., Luo, D. & Zhong, L. North Atlantic multidecadal footprint of the recent winter warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern. Clim Dyn 57, 121–139 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05698-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05698-9