Abstract
The spatio-temporal variations of the significant wave height (SWH) in the Western North Pacific and South China Sea (WNP-SCS) region, as well as their driving mechanisms, are investigated based on the long-term (1981–2014) simulation by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model and a WAVEWATCH III model. The Empirical Orthogonal Function modes of SWH anomalies show different patterns in the cold and warm seasons. In winter, the first mode (explaining 40.63% of the variance) shows a monopole pattern with large loadings lying in SCS and the WNP to the east of the Philippine Islands, which is primarily associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. The second mode (explaining 19.62% of the variance) shows a dipole pattern with negative loadings in the northeastern SCS and positive loadings to the east of Japan, which is prominently connected with the intensity variation and longitudinal shift of Aleutian Low on decadal time scales. In summer, the first leading mode (explaining 73.47% of the variance) presents large loadings located mainly in the WNP region between 10° N and 30° N and secondarily in the central SCS, which is associated with the ENSO-affected tropical cyclone activities and South China Sea summer monsoon, respectively.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alves J-H, Campos RM, Soares CG, Parente CE (2017) Improving surface wind databases for extreme wind-wave simulation and analysis in the South Atlantic Ocean. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5/ON-NCEP-491
Atlas R, Hoffman RN, Ardizzone J, Leidner SM, Jusem JC, Smith DK, Gombos D (2011) A cross-calibrated multiplatform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:157–174. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010bams2946.1
Bell GD et al (2000) Climate assessment for 1999. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:S1–S50. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)81[S1:Caf]2.0.Co;2
Belmonte Rivas M, Stoffelen A (2019) Characterizing ERA-Interim and ERA5 surface wind biases using ASCAT. Ocean Sci 15:831–852. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-831-2019
Bernstein L et al. (2008) Climate change 2007: synthesis report: an assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC
Bruno MF, Molfetta MG, Totaro V, Mossa M (2020) Performance assessment of ERA5 wave data in a Swell dominated region. J Mar Sci Eng 8:214–232. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8030214
Caires S, Sterl A, Bidlot JR, Graham N, Swail V (2004) Intercomparison of different wind-wave reanalyses. J Clim 17:1893–1913. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c1893:IODWR%3e2.0.CO;2
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18:2996–3006. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli3457.1
Cavaleri L, Sclavo M (2006) The calibration of wind and wave model data in the Mediterranean Sea. Coast Eng 53:613–627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.006
Chan JCL (2000) Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J Clim 13:2960–2972. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c2960:Tcaotw%3e2.0.Co;2
Chan JCL (2016) Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity. Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 59:455–460. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00241.x
Chen Z, Wu R, Chen W (2014) Distinguishing interannual variations of the Northern and Southern modes of the East Asian Winter Monsoon. J Clim 27:835–851. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00314.1
Chu PS (2004) ENSO and tropical cyclone activity Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. Clim Dyn 2004:297–332
Craig PD, Banner ML (1994) Modeling wave-enhanced turbulence in the ocean surface layer. J Phys Oceanogr 24:2546–2559. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024%3c2546:MWETIT%3e2.0.CO;2
Fan Y, Fan K, Xu Z, Li S (2018) ENSO–South China Sea summer monsoon interaction modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J Clim 2018:31. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0448.1
Fang GH, Chen HY, Wei ZX, Wang YG, Wang XY, Li CY (2006) Trends and interannual variability of the South China Sea surface winds, surface height, and surface temperature in the recent decade. J Geophys Res-Oceans 2006:111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jc003276
Feng J, Chen W (2014) Interference of the East Asian Winter monsoon in the Impact of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in decaying phases. Adv Atmos Sci 2014:31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-3118-8
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Graham NE, Diaz HF (2001) Evidence for intensification of North Pacific winter cyclones since 1948 B Am Meteorol Soc 82:1869–1893. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1869:Efionp>2.3.Co;2
Hanawa K, Yoshikawa Y, Watanabe T (1989) Composite analyses of wintertime wind stress vector-fields with respect to SST anomalies in the Western North Pacific and the Enso Events Part 2. Enso composite. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 67:833–845. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.67.5_833
Hersbach H et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Hodges K, Cobb A, Vidale PL (2017) How well are tropical cyclones represented in reanalysis datasets? J Clim 30:5243–5264. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0557.1
Holland GJ (1980) An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon Weather Rev 108:1212–1218. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108%3c1212:Aamotw%3e2.0.Co;2
Holthuijsen LH (2007) Description of ocean waves. In: Holthuijsen LH (ed) Waves in oceanic and coastal waters. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 24–55. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511618536.004
Jiang L, Yin Y, Cheng X, Zhang Z (2018) Interannual variability of significant wave height in the northern South China Sea. Aquat Ecosyst Health Manage 21:82–92. https://doi.org/10.1080/14634988.2017.1344455
Kalourazi MY, Siadatmousavi SM, Yeganeh-Bakhtiary A, Jose F (2020) Simulating tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico using analytical models. Oceanologia 62:173–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2019.11.001
Lau N-C, Wang B (2006) Interactions between the Asian monsoon and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In: Wang B (ed) The Asian Monsoon. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 479–512. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-37722-0_12
Lau N-C, Narth MJ, Wang H (2004) Simulations By A GFDL GCM Of ENSO-related variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in the east asian monsoon region. In: East Asian Monsoon, pp 271–300. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812701411_0007
Li JP, Zeng QC (2002) A unified monsoon index. Geophys Res Lett 29:115–116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl013874
Li JP, Zeng QC (2003) A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons. Adv Atmos Sci 20:299–302
Li S, Lu J, Huang G, Hu K (2008) Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and east asian summer monsoon: a multiple AGCM study. J Clim 21:6080–6088. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2433.1
Li YN, Peng SQ, Wang J, Yan J (2014) Impacts of nonbreaking wave-stirring-induced mixing on the upper ocean thermal structure and typhoon intensity in the South China Sea. J Geophys Res-Oceans 119:5052–5070. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009956
Lian T, Chen DK (2012) An evaluation of rotated EOF analysis and its application to tropical pacific SST variability. J Clim 25:5361–5373. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00663.1
Lin N, Chavas D (2012) On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling. J Geophys Res Atmos 2012:117. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd017126
Liu G, Perrie W, Hughes C (2017) Surface wave effects on the wind-power input to mixed layer near-inertial motions. J Phys Oceanogr 47:1077–1093. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-16-0198.1
Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera S, Shingu S, Yamagata T (2005) Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J Clim 18:4474–4497. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3526.1
Mahmoodi K, Ghassemi H, Razminia A (2019) Temporal and spatial characteristics of wave energy in the Persian Gulf based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Energy 187:115991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.115991
Mirzaei A, Tangang F, Juneng L, Mustapha MA, Husain ML, Akhir MF (2013) Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea. Ocean Dyn 63:961–977. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0640-2
Monahan AH, Fyfe JC, Ambaum MHP, Stephenson DB, North GR (2009) Empirical Orthogonal functions: the medium is the message. J Clim 22:6501–6514. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3062.1
Murakami H (2014) Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets. Geophys Res Lett 41:2133–2141. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059519
Osinowo A, Lin X, Zhao D, Wang Z (2016) Long-term variability of extreme significant wave height in the south china sea. Adv Meteorol 2016:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2419353
Palmer TN et al (2004) Development of a european multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (demeter). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:853–872. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-6-853
Pan Y, Chen Y-p, Li J-x, Ding X-l (2016) Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones. Water Sci Eng 9:58–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2016.02.002
Reistad M, Breivik Ø, Haakenstad H, Aarnes OJ, Furevik BR, Bidlot J-R (2011) A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea. J Geophys Res Oceans 2011:116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jc006402
Sasaki W, Toshiyuki H (2007) Interannual variability and predictability of summertime significant wave heights in the western north pacific. J Oceanogr 63:203–213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-007-0022-9
Sasaki W, Iwasaki SI, Matsuura T, Iizuka S (2005) Recent increase in summertime extreme wave heights in the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 2005:32. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023722
Sasaki W, Iwasaki SI, Matsuura T, Iizuka S (2006) Quasi-decadal variability of fall extreme wave heights in the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 2006:33. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026094
Schneider N, Cornuelle BD (2005) The forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J Clim 18:4355–4373
Semedo A, Sušelj K, Rutgersson A, Sterl A (2011) A global view on the wind sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40. J Clim 24:1461–1479. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3718.1
Si K, Kubota M (2006) Relationship between an El niño event and the interannual variability of significant wave heights in the north pacific. Atmos Ocean 44:377–395. https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.440404
Signell RP, Carniel S, Cavaleri L, Chiggiato J, Doyle JD, Pullen J, Sclavo M (2005) Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins. J Mar Syst 53:217–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.03.006
Sugimoto S, Hanawa K (2009) Decadal and interdecadal variations of the aleutian low activity and their relation to upper oceanic variations over the north pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 87:601–614
Swail VR, Cox AT (2000) On the use of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface marine wind fields for a long-term North Atlantic wave hindcast. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 17:532–545. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2000)017%3c0532:otuonn%3e2.0.co;2
Tolman HL (2009) User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14 vol 166.
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00204745
Valcke S (2013) The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software. Geosci Model Dev 6:373–388. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013
Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109%3c0784:TITGHF%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the Western North Pacific. J Clim 15:1643–1658. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1643:Hseeat%3e2.0.Co;2
Wang XLL, Swail VR (2001) Changes of extreme wave heights in Northern Hemisphere oceans and related atmospheric circulation regimes. J Clim 14:2204–2221. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c2204:coewhi%3e2.0.co;2
Wang B, Zhang Q (2002) Pacific-east Asian teleconnection Part II: How the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Nino development. J Clim 15:3252–3265. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c3252:Peatpi%3e2.0.Co;2
Wang B, Wu RG, Fu XH (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c1517:Peathd%3e2.0.Co;2
Wang Y, Wang B, Oh J (2001) Impact of the preceding El Nino on the East Asian Summer atmosphere circulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79:575–588. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.79.575
Wang B, Huang F, Wu Z, Yang J, Fu X, Kikuchi K (2009) Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon: a review. Dyn Atmos Oceans 47:15–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2008.09.004
Wang B, Wu Z, Chang C-P, Liu J, Li J, Zhou T (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian Winter monsoon: the Northern and Southern temperature modes. J Clim 23:1495–1512. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3243.1
Wang B, Xiang B, Lee J-Y (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:2718–2722
Wu X, Li S (2014) Automatic sea fog detection over Chinese adjacent oceans using Terra/MODIS data. Int J Remote Sens 35:7430–7457
Xie S-P, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific Climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2544.1
Yan Z, Liang B, Wu G, Wang S, Li P (2020) Ultra-long return level estimation of extreme wind speed based on the deductive method. Ocean Eng 197:106900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106900
Young IR (2017) A review of parametric descriptions of tropical cyclone wind-wave generation. Atmosphere 2017:8. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100194
Young I, Babanin A (2020) Ocean Wave Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1142/11509
Young IR, Zieger S, Babanin AV (2011) Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 332:451–455. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197219
Young IR, Vinoth J, Zieger S, Babanin AV (2012) Investigation of trends in extreme value wave height and wind speed. J Geophys Res Oceans 2012:117. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007753
Zhang Y, Li J, Wang Q, Xue J (2019) Variations in atmospheric perturbation potential energy associated with the South China Sea summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 53:2295–2308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04845-7
Zheng CW, Li CY (2015) Variation of the wave energy and significant wave height in the China Sea and adjacent waters. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 43:381–387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.11.001
Zheng CW, Pan J, Li JX (2013) Assessing the China Sea wind energy and wave energy resources from 1988 to 2009. Ocean Eng 65:39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.03.006
Zheng CW, Wu GX, Chen X, Wang Q, Gao ZS, Chen YG, Luo X (2019) CMIP5-Based Wave Energy Projection: Case Studies of the South China Sea and the East China Sea. IEEE Access 7:82753–82763. https://doi.org/10.1109/Access.2019.2924197
Zhu G, Lin W, Zhao S, Cao Y (2015) Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ocean waves in the South China Sea during the boreal winter. Acta Oceanol Sin 34:23–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-015-0592-0
Acknowledgements
This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant no. 2018YFC1406206), the Major projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos. 41890851 and 41931182), Guangdong Special Support Program (Grant no. 2019BT2H594), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (Grant no. GML2019ZD0303), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos. 41606007, 41676016 and 41776028), Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant nos. XDA15020901, XDA13030103 and XDA19060503) and Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant nos. ZDRW-XH-2019-2, ISEE2018PY05 and 133244KYSB20180029). The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of the HPCC at the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the buoys observation from the National Ocean Technology Center. Thanks also to the graphic software packages, i.e., MATLAB, which were employed to plot the figures.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Li, S., Li, Y., Peng, S. et al. The inter-annual variations of the significant wave height in the Western North Pacific and South China Sea region. Clim Dyn 56, 3065–3080 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05636-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05636-9