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Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

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Abstract

This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.

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Acknowledgements

This paper was supported by the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES, Brazil) Finance Code 001 and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico—Brazil (CNPq, 422042/2018-8 and 420262/2018-0). Lincoln Muniz Alves acknowledges support from the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil), the DFG/FAPESP (Grant No. IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, and 2015/50122-0), and the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq Grant (465501/2014-1). All data from SAM-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX modelling groups used in this work are acknowledged. The data used in this work can be found at the following web site: http://cordexesg.dmi.dk/esgf-web-fe/. We thank the reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Bauru, SP, Brazil

    Marta Llopart

  2. Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil

    Leonardo Moreno Domingues, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha & Tércio Ambrizzi

  3. Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary

    Csaba Torma

  4. Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Filippo Giorgi & Erika Coppola

  5. Instituto de Recursos Naturais (IRN), Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI), Itajubá, MG, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita

  6. Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

    Lincoln Muniz Alves

  7. Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas, Centro de Ciência Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil

    Maria Leidinice da Silva

  8. National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

    Diego Oliveira de Souza

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  1. Marta Llopart
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Llopart, M., Domingues, L.M., Torma, C. et al. Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains. Clim Dyn 57, 1615–1628 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1

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