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Impact of soil moisture on the dominant modes of North American temperature variability

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Abstract

North American temperature variability and its link with soil moisture is examined in observational/reanalysis datasets and in carefully designed model experiments. The model experiments consist of a control simulation, where soil moisture is allowed to interact (coupled) with the atmosphere at each model time step, and an uncoupled simulation, where soil moisture is prescribed with climatological annual cycle values. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveals that the first three dominant modes of temperature variability, which span synoptic to inter-annual time scales, are very similar in both the observations and the coupled simulation, suggesting that the coupled model successfully reproduces the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of temperature variability. Comparison of the coupled and uncoupled simulations indicates that damping soil moisture variability leads to a clear and robust reduction in temperature variability associated with one of these leading modes, and modest changes to the other two. To explore the underlying feedback processes, the principal component time series of this mode is correlated with the circulation, radiation and turbulent fluxes. This analysis suggests that soil moisture modulates the turbulent fluxes and regional circulation patterns, which in turn modifies the net shortwave radiation pattern to affect the spatio-temporal variability of temperature. Considering the long memory of soil moisture anomalies and the above role it played in modulating one of the leading modes of North Americas temperature variability, the results presented here can have implications for improving sub-seasonal to seasonal temperature forecast skill over North America.

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Acknowledgements

This research was carried out within the framework of the Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council’s (NSERC) Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) program of Canada. ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim land reanalysis datasets are obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

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  1. G. T. Diro

    Present address: Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval, QC, Canada

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics and Trottier Institute for Sustainability in Engineering and Design, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

    G. T. Diro & L. Sushama

  2. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada

    J. Scinocca & Y. Jiao

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  1. G. T. Diro
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  2. L. Sushama
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Correspondence to G. T. Diro.

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Diro, G.T., Sushama, L., Scinocca, J. et al. Impact of soil moisture on the dominant modes of North American temperature variability. Clim Dyn 56, 1359–1370 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05537-3

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