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Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years

Climate Dynamics volume 55, pages 1443–1456 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

The rate of warming of the Arctic surface temperature has exceeded that of the global surface temperature in recent decades. However, the underlying process and causes of the long-term warming remain uncertain. In this paper, we explored the factors underlying variation in Arctic mean surface temperature anomalies (AMTA) using a piecewise linear model for 1920–2018. This analysis indicated that the change in AMTA during the study period could be divided into three segments, with AMTA increasing from 1920 to 1938, declining from 1939 to 1976, and finally increasing rapidly after 1977. By a newly developed rigorous formalism of information flow, we found a one-way causality from the driving forces to AMTA. Moreover, the AMTA evolution could mainly be attributed to a combined effect of anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., CO2, aerosol, and PDO). During the first warming stage (1920–1938), the PDO and aerosols are the main factors determining the change in AMTA. During the second warming stage (1977–2018), greenhouse gases, dominated by CO2, are the major factors accounting for the Arctic warming. In 1939–1976, the observed cooling may be associated with aerosols, clouds, and land use. A better understanding of the driving mechanism underlying AMTA evolution provides insight into the historical Arctic climate change, and can improve the prediction of future changes in AMTA.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing the AMO and PDO data, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, for providing the driving forces dataset. Special thanks also go to Huang et al. for proving the Arctic temperature. The authors also would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and editors for their insightful comments and suggestions, which have significantly improved this paper. This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41675003, 41775008,  and 41575040).

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Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Haixia Xiao, Kun Wu & Renqiang Liu

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China

    Feng Zhang

  3. School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Lijuan Miao

  4. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), 06120, Halle (Saale), Germany

    Lijuan Miao

  5. Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Studies, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    X. San Liang

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  1. Haixia Xiao
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  2. Feng Zhang
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Correspondence to Feng Zhang.

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Xiao, H., Zhang, F., Miao, L. et al. Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years. Clim Dyn 55, 1443–1456 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05330-2

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Keywords

  • Arctic surface temperature
  • Segments
  • Causality
  • Driving force
  • Anthropogenic forcing