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Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones

Climate Dynamics volume 54, pages 3907–3925 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

This study is concerned with the connections between the large-scale environment and the seasonal occurrence of rapid intensification (RI) of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Physically-motivated statistical analysis using observations and reanalysis products suggests that for tropical cyclones over the open tropical North Atlantic, the interannual variability of the probability of storms undergoing RI is influenced by seasonal large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables, but not so for storms over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. We suggest that this differentiated response is due to the former region exhibiting a strong negative correlation between the seasonal anomalies of vertical wind shear and potential intensity. Differences in the mean climatology and subseasonal variations of the large-scale environment in these regions appear to play an insignificant role in the distinctive seasonal environmental controls on RI. We suggest that the interannual correlation of vertical wind shear and potential intensity is an indicator of seasonal predictability of tropical cyclone activity (including RI) across the tropics .

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported in part by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grants NA14OAR4320106 and NA18OAR4320123. Gabriel A. Vecchi is supported by the Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) at Princeton University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS), Princeton University, 300 Forrestal Road, Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ, 08540-6659, USA

    Ching Ho Justin Ng & Gabriel A. Vecchi

  2. Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA

    Gabriel A. Vecchi

  3. Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA

    Gabriel A. Vecchi

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  1. Ching Ho Justin Ng
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  2. Gabriel A. Vecchi
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Ng, C.H.J., Vecchi, G.A. Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Clim Dyn 54, 3907–3925 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05207-4

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