Abstract
Recent work has emphasized the important role of midlatitude moisture fluxes in enhancing Arctic warming and sea ice loss. Conversely, less attention has been paid to the impact of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on midlatitude moisture fluxes. Analysis of an atmosphere-only general circulation model indicates that sea ice loss promotes changes in the large-scale midlatitude atmospheric circulation that have a substantial impact on moisture transport into and out of the Arctic. While poleward moisture transport into the Arctic does increase in a reduced sea ice climate, the increase in equatorward moisture transport out of the Arctic is larger, particularly in boreal winter over the North Pacific. A decomposition of the meridional moisture transport reveals that this increase in equatorward moisture transport is driven, at least in part, by changes in the background circulation. Specifically, sea ice loss drives a series of large-scale tropospheric circulation changes, including an increase in cyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the North Pacific that results in a preferential enhancement of equatorward moisture transport out of the Arctic in the days following the peak of the Rossby wave breaking event.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ayarzagüena B, Screen J (2016) Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett 43:2801–2809
Baggett C, Lee S (2017) An identification of the mechanisms that lead to Arctic warming during planetary-scale and synoptic-scale wave life cycles. J Atmos Sci 74(6):1859–1877
Baggett C, Lee S, Feldstein S (2016) An investigation of the presence of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific during planetary-scale wave life cycles and their role in Arctic warming. J Atmos Sci 73(11):4329–4347
Barnes EA (2013) Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880
Barnes EA, Hartmann DL (2012) Detection of Rossby wave breaking and its response to shifts of the midlatitude jet with climate change. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D09,117. https://doi.org/10.1002/2012JD017469
Barnes EA, Screen JA (2015) The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: can it? Has it? Will it? WIREs Clim Change 6:277–286. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337
Blackport R, Kushner PJ (2017) Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the coupled climate system. J Clim 30:2163–2185
Blackport R, Screen J (2019) Influence of Arctic sea ice loss in autumn compared to that in winter on the atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 46:2018GL081,469
Burt MA, Randall DA, Branson MD (2016) Dark warming. J Clim 29(2):705–719
Butler AH, Thompson DWJ, Heikes R (2010) The steady-state atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J Clim 23:3474–3496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3228.1
Cattiaux J, Peings Y, Saint-Martin D, Trou-Kechout N, Vavrus SJ (2016) Sinuosity of mid-latitude atmospheric flow in a warming world. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070309
Cohen J, Screen JA, Furtado JC, Barlow M, Whittleston D, Coumou D, Francis J, Dethloff K, Entekhabi D, Overland J, Jones J (2014) Recent Arctic amplification and extreme midlatitude weather. Nat Geosci 7:627–637. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234
Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski W, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver A, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
Deser C, Terray L, Phillips AS (2016) Forced and internal compoments of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: mechanisms and implications. J Clim 29:2237–2258. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1
Deser C, Tomas RA, Alexander M, Lawrence D (2010) The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J Clim 23:333–351. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1
Dufour A, Zolina O, Gulev S (2016) Atmospheric moisture transport to the Arctic: assessment of reanalyses and analysis of transport components. J Clim 29:5061–5081
Feldstein SB, Lee S (2014) Intraseasonal and interdecadal jet shifts in the Northern Hemisphere: the role of warm pool tropical convection and sea ice. J Clim 27(17):6497–6518
Francis JA, Hunter E (2006) New insight into the disappearing Arctic sea ice. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 87:509–511. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO460001
Francis JA, Vavrus SJ (2015) Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-8326/10/1/014005
Franzke C, Woollings T, Martius O (2011) Persistent circulation regimes and preferred regime transitions in the North Atlantic. J Atmos Sci 68:2809–2825
Franzke CLE, Lee S, Feldstein SB (2016) Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1107/s00382-016-3263-9
Gan B, Wu L, Jia F, Li S, Cai W, Nakamura H, Alexander MJ, Miller AJ (2017) On the response of the Aleutian low to greenhouse gas warming. J Clim 30:3907–3925
Ghatak D, Miller J (2013) Implications for Arctic amplification of changes in the strength of the water vapor feedback. Geophys Res Lett 118:7569–7578. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50578
Goss MS, Feldstein SB, Lee S (2016) Stationary wave interference and its relation to tropical convection and Arctic warming. J Clim 29:1369–1389. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0267.1
Graversen RG (2006) Do changes in the midlatitude circulation have any impact on the Arctic surface air temperature trend? J Clim 19:5422–5438
Graversen RG, Burtu M (2016) Arctic amplification enhanced by latent energy transport of atmospheric planetary waves. Q J R Meteorol Soc 142:2046–2054. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2802
Hansen J, Lacis A, Rind D, Russell G, Stone P, Fung I, Ruedy R, Lerner J (1984) Climate sensitivity: analysis of feedback mechanisms. American Geophysical Union. AGU geophysical monographs, no. 29, Maurice Ewing vol 5
Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699
Holland MM, Bitz CM (2003) Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim Dyn 21:221–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6
Kapsch ML, Graversen RG, Tjernstroöm M, Bintanja R (2016) The effect of downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation on Arctic summer sea ice. J Clim 29:1143–1158. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0238.1
Kim BM, Son SW, Min SK, Jeong JH, Kim SJ, Zhang X, Shim T, Yoon JH (2014) Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss. Nat Commun 5:4646
Kretschmer M, Coumou D, Donges JF, Runge J (2016) Using causal effect networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation. J Clim 29:4069–4081
Kug JS, Jeong JH, Jang YS, Kim BM, Folland CK, Min SK, Son SW (2017) Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia. Nat Geosci 8:759–762. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2517
Labe Z, Peings Y, Magnusdottir G (2018) Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss. Geophys Res Lett 45:2018GL078,158
Lang A, Yang S, Kaas E (2017) Sea ice thickness and recent Arctic warming. Geophys Res Lett 44:2016GL071,274
Langen PL, Alexeev VA (2007) Polar amplification as a preferred response in an idealized aquaplanet GCM. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0221-x
Lee S (2014) A theory for polar amplification from a general circulation perspective. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 50:31–43
Liu C, Barnes EA (2015) Extreme moisture transport into the Arctic linked to Rossby wave breaking. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:3774–3788. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022796
Liu C, Ren X, Yang X (2014) Mean flow-storm track relationship and Rossby wave breaking in two types of El-Niño. Adv Atmos Sci 31(1):197
Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1980) Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO\(_2\) concentration in the atmosphere. J Geophys Res 85:5529–5554
Manabe S, Wetherald RT (1975) The effects of doubling the \(CO_{2}\) concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J Atmos Sci 32(1):3–15
McCusker K, Fyfe J, Sigmond M (2016) Twenty-five witners of unexpected Eurasian cooling unilkely due to Arctic sea-ice loss. Nat Geosci 9:838–842. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2820
McCusker KE, Kushner PJ, Fyfe JC, Sigmond M, Kharin VV, Bitz CM (2017) Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing. Geophys Res Lett L074327:7955–7964
McGraw MC, Barnes EA (2016) Seasonal sensitivity of the eddy-driven jet to tropospheric heating in an idealized AGCM. J Clim 29:5223–5240. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0723.1
McKenna CM, Bracegirdle TJ, Shuckburgh EF, Haynes PH, Joshi MM (2018) Arctic sea ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern Hemisphere impacts. Geophys Res Lett L076433:945–954
Messori G, Woods C, Caballero R (2018) On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the high Arctic. J Clim 31:1597–1618. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0386.1
Mortin J, Svensson G, Graversen RG, Kapsch ML, Stroeve JC, Boisvert LN (2016) Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport. Geophys Res Lett 43(12):6636–6642
Mundhenk BD, Barnes EA, Maloney ED, Nardi KM (2016) Modulation of atmospheric rivers near Alaska and the U.S. West Coast by northeast Pacific height anomalies. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:12,751–12,765. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025350
Newman M, Kiladis GN, Weickmann KM, Ralph FM, Sardeshmukh PD (2012) Relative contributions of synoptic and low-frequency eddies to time-mean atmospheric moisture transport, including the role of atmospheric rivers. J Clim 25:7341–7361. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00665.1
Oudar T, Sanchez-Gomez E, Chauvin F, Cattiaux J, Terray L, Cassou C (2017) Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Clim Dyn 49:3693–3713
Overland J, Francis JA, Hall R, Hanna E, Kim SJ, Vihma T (2015) The melting Arctic and midlatitude weather patterns: are they connected? J Clim 28:7917–7932
Park DSR, Lee S, Feldstein SB (2015) Attribution of the recent winter sea ice decline over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean. J Clim 28:4027–4033. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.1
Park HS, Lee S, Son SW, Feldstein SB, Kosaka Y (2015) The impact of poleward moisture and sensible heat flux on Arctic winter sea ice variability. J Clim 28:5030–5040. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0074.1
Payne AE, Magnusdottir G (2014) Dynamics of landfalling atmospheric rivers in the North Pacific in 30 years of MERRA reanalysis. J Clim 27:7133–7150. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00034.1
Peings Y, Cattiaux J, Vavrus S, Magnusdottir G (2017) Late twenty-first-century changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in the CESM large ensemble. J Clim 30:5943–5960. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0340.1
Peings Y, Magnusdottir G (2014) Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline: a numerical study with CAM5. J Clim 27:244–264. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00272.1
Peixóto JP, Oort AH (1992) Physics of climate. American Institute of Physics, US. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7287064
Riviére G (2011) A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios. J Atmos Sci 68:1253–1272
Ronalds B, Barnes E, Hassanzadeh P (2018) A barotropic mechanism for the response of jet stream variability to Arctic amplification and sea ice loss. J Clim 31:7069–7085. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0778.1
Ryoo JM, Kaspi Y, Waugh DW, Kiladis GN, Waliser DE, Fetzer EJ, Kim J (2013) Impact of Rossby wave breaking on U.S. West Coast winter precipitation during ENSO events. J Clim 26:6360–6382. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00297.1
Screen J (2014) Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes. Nat Clim Change 4:577–582. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2268
Screen J (2017) Simulated atmospheric response to regional and pan-Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 30:3945–62
Screen JA, Deser C, Smith DM, Zhang X, Blackport R, Kushner PJ, Oudar T, McCusker KE, Sun L (2018) Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models. Nat Geosci 11:155–163
Screen JA, Deser C, Sun L (2015) Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006
Screen JA, Francis JA (2016) Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability. Nat Clim Change 6:856–860. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3011
Screen JA, Simmonds I (2010) Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification. Geophys Res Lett 37:L16,707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044136
Serreze MC, Barrett AP, Stroeve J (2012) Recent changes in tropospheric water vapor over the Arctic as assessed from radiosondes and atmospheric reanalyses. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017421
Serreze MC, Barry RG (2005) The Arctic climate system. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Serreze MC, Barry RG (2011) Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: a research synthesis. Glob Planet Change 77:85–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004
Smith DM, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Fiedler EK, Copsey D, Hardiman SC (2017) Atmospheric response to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice: the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling and the background state. J Clim 30:4547–4565
Sorteberg A, Walsh J (2008) Seasonal cyclone variability at 70 \(^\circ\) N and its impact on moisture transport into the Arctic. Tellus 60A:570–586
Strong C, Magnusdottir G (2008) Tropospheric Rossby wave breaking and the NAO/NAM. J Atmos Sci 65(9):2861–2876
Sun L, Deser C, Tomas RA (2015) Mechanisms of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 28:7824–7845. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1
Sun L, Perlwitz J, Hoerling M (2016) What caused the recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern in winter temperatures? Geophys Res Lett 43:5345–5352. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069024
Sung MK, Kim BM, Baek EH, Lim YK, Kim SJ (2016) Arctic–North Pacific coupled impacts on the late autumn cold in North America. Environ Res Lett 11:084,016
Thorncroft C, Hoskins B, McIntyre M (1993) Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour. Q J R Meteorol Soc 119:17–55
Tyrlis E, Hoskins BJ (2008) The morphology of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J Atmos Sci 65:1653–1665. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2338.1
Walsh J (2014) Intensified warming of the Arctic: causes and impacts on middle latitudes. Glob Planet Change 117:52–63
Woods C, Caballero R (2016) The role of moist intrusions in winter Arctic warming and sea ice decline. J Clim 29:4473–4485. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0773.1
Woods C, Caballero R, Svensson G (2013) Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter. Geophys Res Lett 40:4717–4721. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50912
Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic Eddy-driven jet stream. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:856–868. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625
Wu Y, Smith K (2016) Response of Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation to Arctic amplification in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 29(6):2041–2058
Zappa G, Pithan F, Shepherd T (2018) Multimodel evidence for an atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Geophys Res Lett 45:L076,096. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076096
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Lantao Sun of the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, CO, for providing us with the model simulations, and to Elizabeth Barnes for support and feedback. The model data used in this paper are available from the corresponding author upon request. This research was supported by the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation under Grant AGS-1419818. This research has also been conducted as part of the NOAA MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force and supported by NOAA Grant NA16OAR4310064. Analysis was performed in Python V2.7.8, MATLAB Release 2016b, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Command Language (NCL) version V6.4.0.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
McGraw, M.C., Baggett, C.F., Liu, C. et al. Changes in Arctic moisture transport over the North Pacific associated with sea ice loss. Clim Dyn 54, 491–506 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05011-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05011-9