Abstract
As a harbinger of anomalous weather regimes in the troposphere, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) propagates from the stratosphere to the troposphere. This fact makes understanding and predicting NAM variability of great importance. In this study, the multi-fractal behaviors of NAM variability are investigated using extended self-similarity based, multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (ESS-MF-DFA) and the NAM indices from 1000 to 10 hPa. The results show that there are contrasting multi-fractal behaviors between the stratosphere and the troposphere that have a transition band near 200 hPa. The stratospheric NAM variability is more complicated and has multiple multi-fractal regimes over different scales with marked contrasting warm–cold season features. To understand these contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors, three surrogate methods are adopted to show how temporal ordinal patterns over an annual scale contribute to these behaviors, whereas the distribution of NAM variability only plays a minor role. Further studies show that contrasting warm–cold variability may lead to these contrasting behaviors. Among them, warm–cold seasonal variations, power spectral density (PSD), and autocorrelation provide a similar conclusion. Results indicate that although predictions of the NAM index over the stratosphere are required and necessary, the complicated multi-fractal behaviors make linear prediction strategy difficult to obtain high realizable predictability of NAM variations over the stratosphere.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ambaum MH, Hoskins BJ (2002) The NAO troposphere–stratosphere connection. J Clim 15(14):1969–1978. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1969:TNTSC%3e2.0.CO;2
Badin G, Domeisen DIV (2014a) A search for chaotic behavior in Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability. J Atmos Sci 71(4):1494–1507. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0225.1
Badin G, Domeisen DIV (2014b) A search for chaotic behavior in stratospheric variability: comparison between the northern and southern hemispheres. J Atmos Sci 71(12):4611–4620. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0049.1
Badin G, Domeisen DIV (2016) Nonlinear stratospheric variability: multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis and singularity spectra. Proc R Soc A Math Phys 472(2191):20150864. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2015.0864
Baldwin MP (2001) Annular modes in global daily surface pressure. Geophys Res Lett 28(21):4115–4118. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013564
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (1999) Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J Geophys Res 104(D24):30937–30946. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900445
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294(5542):581–584. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315
Baldwin MP, Thompson DW (2009) A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135(644):1661–1672. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.479
Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DW, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O’Neill A (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301(5633):636–640. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1087143
Bamzai AS (2003) Relationship between snow cover variability and Arctic Oscillation index on a hierarchy of time scales. Int J Climatol 23(2):131–142. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.854
Cai M, Ren RC (2007) Meridional and downward propagation of atmospheric circulation anomalies. Part I: Northern Hemisphere cold season variability. J Atmos Sci 64(6):1880–1901. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3922.1
Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J (2010) Winter 2009–2010: a case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys Res Lett 37(17):L17707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044256
Domeisen DIV, Badin G, Koszalka IM (2018) How predictable are the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations? Exploring the variability and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere. J Clim 31(3):997–1014. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1
Feldstein B, Franzke CL (2017) Atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In: Franzke CL, O’Kane TJ (eds) Nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 54–104
Fu ZT, Shi L, Xie FH, Piao L (2016) Nonlinear features of northern annular mode variability. Physica A 449:390–394
Fujiwara M, Wright JS, Manney GL, Gray LJ, Anstey J, Birner T et al (2017) Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems. Atmos Chem Phys 17(2):1417–1452. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017
Gerber EP, Martineau P (2018) Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty. Atmos Chem Phys 18(23):17099–17117. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018
Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesicke P et al (2010) Stratosphere–troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013770
Gillett NP, Graf HF, Osborn TJ (2003) Climate change and the North Atlantic oscillation. Geophys Monogr Am Geophys Union 134:193–210
Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28(10):2073–2076. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012311
Gong DY, Kim SJ, Ho CH (2007) Arctic Oscillation and ice severity in the Bohai Sea, east Asia. Int J Climatol 27(10):1287–1302. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1470
Hirata Y, Shimo Y, Tanaka HL, Aihara K (2011) Chaotic properties of the Arctic oscillation index. SOLA 7:33–36. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2011-009
Hitchcock P (2019) On the value of reanalyses prior to 1979 for dynamical studies of stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Atmos Chem Phys 19(5):2749–2764. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2749-2019
Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Xu T (2001) Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change. Science 292(5514):90–92. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058582
Huang Y, Fu Z (2019) Enhanced time series predictability with well-defined structures. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02836-6
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–472. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3c0437:TNYRP%3e2.0.CO;2
Kantelhardt JW, Koscielny-Bunde E, Rego HH, Havlin S, Bunde A (2001) Detecting long-range correlations with detrended fluctuation analysis. Phys A 295(3–4):441–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00144-3
Kantelhardt JW, Zschiegner SA, Koscielny-Bunde E, Havlin S, Bunde A, Stanley HE (2002) Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series. Phys A 316(1–4):87–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01383-3
Keeley SPE, Sutton RT, Shaffrey LC (2009) Does the North Atlantic oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophys Res Lett 36(22):L22706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367
Kerr RA (1999) A new force in high-latitude climate. Science 284:241–242. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5412.241
Kerr RA (2001) Getting a handle on the North’s El Nino. Science 294:494–495. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.294.5542.494b
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H et al (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 93(1):5–48. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001
Limpasuvan V, Hartmann DL (1999) Eddies and the annular modes of climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 26(20):3133–3136. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010478
Limpasuvan V, Hartmann DL (2000) Wave-maintained annular modes of climate variability. J Clim 13(24):4414–4429. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c4414:WMAMOC%3e2.0.CO;2
Movahed MS, Jafari GR, Ghasemi F, Rahvar S, Tabar MRR (2006) Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of sunspot time series. J Stat Mech 02:P02003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2006/02/P02003
Nian D, Fu Z (2019) Extended self-similarity based multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis: a novel multi-fractal quantifying method. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 67:568–576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2018.07.034
Osprey SM, Ambaum MH (2011) Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability. Geophys Res Lett 38(15):L15702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048181
Riddle EE, Butler AH, Furtado JC, Cohen JL et al (2013) CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 41:1099–1116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1850-5
Sigeti DE (1995) Exponential decay of power spectra at high frequency and positive Lyapunov exponents. Phys D 82:136–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(94)00225-F
Sigeti D, Horsthemke W (1987) High-frequency power spectra for systems subject to noise. Phys Rev A 35(5):2276. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.35.2276
Simpson IR, Hitchcock P, Shepherd TG, Scinocca JF (2011) Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular-mode timescales. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049304
Stockdale TN, Molteni F, Ferranti L (2015) Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 42(4):1173–1179. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062681
Sun J, Ahn JB (2015) Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Arctic oscillation using a CGCM. Int J Climatol 35(7):1342–1353. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4060
Thompson DW, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1297–1300. https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00950
Thompson DW, Wallace JM (2001) Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science 293(5527):85–89. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058958
Thompson DW, Baldwin MP, Wallace JM (2002) Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: implications for prediction. J Clim 15(12):1421–1428. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1421:SCTNHW%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang J, Ikeda M (2000) Arctic oscillation and Arctic sea-ice oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 27(9):1287–1290. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002389
Wang L, Ting M, Kushner PJ (2017) A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate. Sci Rep 7(1):279. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y
Ye Z, Hsieh WW (2008) Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems. Nonlinear Processes Geophys 15:793–801. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-793-2008
Yuan N, Fu Z, Mao J (2013) Different multi-fractal behaviors of diurnal temperature range over the north and the south of China. Theor Appl Climatol 112:673–682. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0762-3
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions for improving the readability of this paper. The authors acknowledge the supports from National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 41675049, 41475048).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nian, D., Fu, Z. Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability. Clim Dyn 54, 37–52 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04981-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04981-0