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Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection

Abstract

In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and mean spectral wave period (Tm01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of Hs will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future Tm01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to everyone who supported modifications of the source code to fix the problem with the drag coefficient in SWAN v. 41.10, including (in alphabetic order) Adem Akpinar, George Lavidas, Tomoya Shimura, Gerbrant van Vledder and Marcel Zijlema. The authors are also grateful to Katherine Cox for editing the manuscript. Part of the research was supported by the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research at Kyoto University, the framework of the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program), and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research—KAKENHI—supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

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Correspondence to Bahareh Kamranzad.

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Kamranzad, B., Mori, N. Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection. Clim Dyn 53, 2391–2410 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Wave model
  • Indian Ocean
  • SWAN
  • MRI-AGCM3.2S
  • RCP8.5