New real-time indices for the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

Abstract

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), with a periodicity of 10–30 days, is one of the most important modes of intraseasonal variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. Unlike the lower frequency (30–60 days) Madden–Julian Oscillation, which has had several real-time indices proposed for monitoring and predicting its state, there are very few equivalents for the QBWO. Given that extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis is arguably more suitable than empirical orthogonal function analysis for capturing the canonical spatial and temporal structure of a propagating wave system, we introduce two new indices for real-time monitoring of the QBWO over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and Indian Ocean (IO), separately, by projecting outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies onto the two leading modes of EEOF analysis for the 10–30-day-filtered OLR anomalies over the two basins during 1980–2012. The newly proposed QBWO indices faithfully represent the vigorous QBWO activities over the WNP and IO, which are underestimated and/or not necessarily well represented by existing indices. It is also shown that the indices are able to reveal the connections between the QBWO and other pronounced phenomena, such as the onset of the South China Sea and Indian monsoons, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events, and tropical cyclone genesis. Thus, monitoring and predicting the evolution of the QBWO in these two basins based on the new QBWO indices should help in the quest to mitigate future damage caused by weather-related disasters at an extended lead time.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17

References

  1. Annamalai H, Slingo JM (2001) Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 18:85–102

    Google Scholar 

  2. Broomhead DS, King GP (1986) Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data. J Phys D 20:217–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Chatterjee P, Goswami BB (2004) Structure, genesis and scale selection of the tropical quasi-biweekly mode. Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1171–1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Chen TC, Chen JM (1993) The 10–20-day mode of the 1979 Indian monsoon: its relation with the time variation of monsoon rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 121:2465–2482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chen TC, Chen JM (1995) An observational study of the South China Sea monsoon during the 1979 summer: onset and life cycle. Mon Weather Rev 123:2295–2318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Chen GH, Sui CH (2010) Characteristics and origin of quasi-biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific during boreal summer. J Geophys Res 115:D14113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Chen TC, Yen MC, Weng SP (2000) Interaction between the summer monsoons in East Asia and the South China Sea: intraseasonal monsoon modes. J Atmos Sci 57:1373–1392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Duchon CE (1979) Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions. J Appl Meteorol 18:1016–1022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Gao JY, Lin H, You LJ, Chen S (2016) Monitoring early-flood season intraseasonal oscillations and persistent heavy rainfall in South China. Clim Dyn 47:3845–3861

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Ghil M, Allen MR, Dettinger MD, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann ME, Robertson AW, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40:3-1–3-41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Giannakis D, Majda AJ (2012) Nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis for time series with intermittency and low-frequency variability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:2222–2227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS, Xavier PK, Sengupta D (2003) Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys Res Lett 30:1431

    Google Scholar 

  14. Hannachi A, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2007) Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. Int J Climatol 27:1119–1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Hsu PC, Li T, Tsou CH (2011) Interactions between boreal summer Intraseasonal oscillations and synoptic-scale disturbances over the western North Pacific. Part I: energetics diagnosis. J Clim 24:927–941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Hsu PC, Lee JY, Ha KJ (2016) Influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in southern China. Int J Climatol 36:1403–1412

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Jia XL, Yang S (2013) Impact of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific on East Asian subtropical monsoon during early summer. J Geophys Res 118:4421–4434

    Google Scholar 

  18. Jian MQ, Zhang CH (2013) Impact of quasi-biweekly oscillation on a sustained rainstorm in October 2010 in Hainan. J Trop Meteorol 29:364–373 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  19. JTWC (2017) The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Western North Pacific best track data. http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

  20. Kajikawa Y, Wang B (2012) Interdecadal change of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset. J Clim 25:3207–3218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Keshavamurty RN (1971) Power spectra of large-scale disturbances of Indian summer monsoon. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 52:796

    Google Scholar 

  22. Keshavamurty RN (1972) On the vertical tilt of monsoon disturbances. J Atmos Sci 29:993–995

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Kikuchi K, Wang B (2009) Global perspective of the quasi-biweekly oscillation. J Clim 22:1340–1359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Kikuchi K, Wang B, Kajikawa Y (2012) Bimodal representation of the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation. Clim Dyn 38:1989–2000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Kikuchi K, Kodama C, Nasuno T, Nakano M, Miura H, Satoh M, Noda AT, Yamada Y (2017) Tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated in an AMIP-type experiment by NICAM. Clim Dyn 48:2507–2528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Kiladis GN, Straub KH, Haertel PT (2005) Zonal and vertical structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Atmos Sci 62:2790–2809

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Kildadis GN, Wheeler M (1995) Horizontal and vertical structure of observed tropospheric equatorial Rossby waves. J Geophys Res 100(D11):22981–22997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Kildadis GN, Dias J, Straub KH, Wheeler MC, Tulich SN, Kikuchi K, Weickmann KM, Ventrice AJ (2014) A comparison of OLR and circulation-based indices for tracking the MJO. Mon Weather Rev 142:1697–1715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2007) Intraseasonal and seasonally persisting patterns of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 20:3–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Krishnamurti TN, Bhalme HN (1976) Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I: observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33:1937–1954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lee JY, Wang B, Wheeler MC, Fu XH, Waliser DE, Kang IS (2013) Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim Dyn 40:493–509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Li T (2014) Recent advance in understanding the dynamics of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Meteorol Res 28:001–033

    Google Scholar 

  33. Li RCY, Zhou W (2013) Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO. Part I: genesis and intensity. J Clim 26:2904–2918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277

    Google Scholar 

  35. Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Maloney ED, Hartmann DL (2000) Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Science 287:2002–2004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Mao JY, Chan JCL (2005) Intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon. J Clim 18:2388–2402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 44:25–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Murakami M (1976) Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuation over India. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 54:15–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Plaut G, Vautard R (1994) Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 51:210–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Suhas E, Neena JM, Goswami BN (2013) An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification. Clim Dyn 40:2605–2616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Székely E, Giannakis D, Majda AJ (2016) Extraction and predictability of coherent intraseasonal signals in infrared brightness temperature data. Clim Dyn 46:1473–1502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Takens F (1981) Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. In: Rand DA, Young L-S (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence lecture notes in mathematics, vol 898. Springer, Berlin, pp 366–381

    Google Scholar 

  46. Ventrice MJ, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH, Schreck CJ, Thorncroft CD (2013) A modified multivariate Madden Julian oscillation index using velocity potential. Mon Weather Rev 141:4197–4210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Wang B, Rui H (1990) Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975–1985. Meteorol Atmos Phys 44:43–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Wang XL, João CR, Zhang XB (1996) Intraseasonal oscillations and associated spatial-temporal structures of precipitation over China. J Geophys Res 101:19035–19042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Wang HJ, Sun JH, Zhao SX, Fu SM (2014) A mesoscale study of extreme rainfall along the eastern coast of Hainan island in October 2010. J Trop Meteorol 30:518–532 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  50. Weare BC, Nasstrom JS (1982) Examples of extended empirical orthogonal function analyses. Mon Weather Rev 110:481–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Wen M, Li T, Zhang RH, Qi YJ (2010) Structure and origin of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the Tropical Indian Ocean in boreal spring. J Atmos Sci 67:1965–1982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Yoshida R, Kajikawa Y, Ishikawa H (2014) Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on environment of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Sola 10:15–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Zhang C (2005) Madden–Julian oscillation. Rev Geophys 43:RG2003

    Google Scholar 

  56. Zhao HK, Jiang XA, Wu LG (2015) Modulation of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis by the intraseasonal variability. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93:81–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Zhao HK, Wang CZ. Yoshida R (2016) Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific by the quasi-biweekly oscillation. Adv Atmos Sci 33:1361–1375

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1505804), China National 973 Project (2015CB453200) and the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province, China (KYCX17_0872). KK acknowledges the support by the NOAA of the U.S., Climate Program Office (Grants NA13OAR4310165 and NAl70AR4310250). This paper is contribution number 10638 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, and contribution number 1359 of the International Pacific Research Center.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pang-Chi Hsu.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 756 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Qian, Y., Hsu, P. & Kazuyoshi, K. New real-time indices for the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim Dyn 53, 2603–2624 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04644-0

Download citation

Keywords

  • Quasi-biweekly oscillation
  • Real-time monitoring
  • EEOF analysis