Abstract
The influence of temperature on precipitation in China is investigated from two aspects of the atmospheric water cycle: available water vapor and atmospheric instability. Daily observations are used to analyze how rainfall intensities and its spatial distribution in mainland China depend on these two aspects. The results show that rainfall intensities, and especially rainfall extremes, increase exponentially with available water vapor. The efficiency of water vapor conversion to rainfall is higher in northwestern China where water vapor is scarce than in southeastern China where water vapor is plentiful. The results also reveal a power law relationship between rainfall intensity and convective instability. The fraction of convective available potential energy (CAPE) converted to upward velocity is much larger over southeastern China than over the arid northwest. The sensitivities of precipitation to temperature-induced changes in available water vapor and atmospheric convection are thus geographically reciprocal. Specifically, while conversion of water vapor to rainfall is relatively less efficient in southeastern China, conversion of CAPE to upward kinetic energy is more efficient. By contrast, in northwestern China, water vapor is efficiently converted to rainfall but only a small fraction of CAPE is converted to upward motion. The detailed features of these relationships vary by location and season; however, the influences of atmospheric temperature on rainfall intensities and rainfall extremes are predominantly expressed through changes in available water vapor, with changes in convective instability playing a secondary role.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams DK, Souza EP (2009) CAPE and Convective Events in the Southwest during the North American Monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 137(1):83–98. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2502.1
Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419(6903):224–232
Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321:1481–1484
Arakawa A, Schubert WH (1974) Interaction of a Cumulus Cloud Ensemble with the Large-Scale Environment, Part I. J Atmos Sci 31(3):674–701
Berg P et al (2009) Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature. J Geophys Res 114:D18102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012008
Brooks H (1994) On the environments of tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones. Weather ad Forecast 9:606–618
Brooks HE, Carbin GW, Marsh PT (2014) Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States. Science 346:349–352
Chan K, Chan J (2012) Size and strength of tropical cyclones as inferred from QuikSCAT data. Mon Wea Rev 140:811–824. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05062.1
Chen GT-J (1994) Large-scale circulations associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and the Mei-Yu over South China and Taiwan. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 72:959–983
Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553–597
DeMott CA, Randall DA (2004) Observed variations of tropical convective available potential energy. J Geophys Res 109:D02102
Derbyshire SH, Beau I, Bechtold P, Grandpeix JY, Piriou JM, Redelsperger JL, Soares P (2004) Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:3055–3079
Donat M, Lowry AL, Alexander LV, O’Gorman PA, Maher N (2016) More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat Clim Change 6:508–513
Donner LJ, Phillips VT (2003) Boundary layer control on convective available potential energy: Implications for cumulus parameterization. J Geophys Res 108(D22):4701
Doswell CA III, Rasmussen EN (1994) The effect of neglecting the virtual temperature correction on CAPE calculations. Weather Forecast 9:625–629
Durre I, Vose RS, Wuertz DB (2006) Overview of the integrated global radiosonde archive. J Clim 19:53–68
Durre I, Williams CN, Yin X, Vose RS (2009) Radiosonde-based trends in precipitable water over the Northern Hemisphere: an update. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D5
Emanuel KA (1994) Atmospheric convection. Oxford Univ. Press, New York
Gordon ND, Jonko AK, Forster PM, Shell KM (2013) An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:12435–12443
Haerter JO, Berg P (2009) Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type? Nat Geosci 2:372–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo523
Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming. J Clim 19(21):5686–5699
Hettmansperger TP, Sheather SJ (1986) Confidence intervals based on Interpolated order statistics. Statist Probab Lett 4:75–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7152(86)90021-0
Jones RH, Westra S, Sharma A (2010) Observed relationships between extreme sub daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophys Res Lett 37(September):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045081
Kirkpatrick C, McCaul EW, Cohen C (2011) Sensitivities of simulated convective storms to environmental CAPE. Mon Weather Rev 139:3514–3532
Kunkel KE, Karl TR, Easterling DR, Redmond K, Young J, Yin X, Hennon P (2013) Probable maximum precipitation and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 40:1402–1408
Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat Geosci 1:511–514. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262
Lepore C, Veneziano D, Molini A (2015) Temperature and CAPE dependence of rainfall extremes in the eastern United States. Geophys Res Lett 42:74–83. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062247
Lu X, Yu H, Lei X (2011) Statistics for size and radial wind profile of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Acta Meteorol Sin 25:104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-011-0008-9
Lu E et al (2014) Changes of summer precipitation in China: the dominance of frequency and intensity and linkage with changes in moisture and air temperature. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(12):575–612, 587. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022456
North GR, Erukhimova TL (2009) Atmospheric thermodynamics. Cambridge Univ. Press, New York
Nyblom J (1992) Note on interpolated order statistics. Statist Probab Lett 14:129–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7152(92)90076-H
O’Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(35):14773–14777. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106
Singh M, O’Gorman P (2013) Influence of entrainment on the thermal stratification in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Geophys Res Lett 41:6037–6044
Subrahmanyam K, Kumar K, Babu A (2015) Phase relation between CAPE and precipitation at diurnal scales over the Indian summer monsoon region. Atmos Sci Lett 16:346–354
Taszarek M, Brooks H, Czernecki B, Szuster P, Fortuniak K (2018) Climatological aspects of convective parameters over Europe: a comparison of ERA-Interim and sounding data. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0596.1
Trapp RJ, Diffenbaugh NS, Brooks HE, Baldwin ME, Robinson ED, Pal JS (2007) Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global warming radiative forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19719–19723
Trenberth KE (1998) Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: implications for rainfall rates and climate change. Clim Change 39:667–694
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138
Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2005) Relationships between precipitation and surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14703
Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The Changing Character of Precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(9):1205–1218
Utsumi N, Seto S, Kanae S, Maeda EE, Oki T (2011) Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation? Geophys Res Lett 38:L16708 (GL048426)
Wang Y, Zhou L (2005) Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961–2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L09707
Ye H et al (2014) Impact of increased water vapor on precipitation efficiency over northern Eurasia. Geophys Res Lett 41:2941–2947. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059830
Yuan Z et al (2015) Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3
Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China. J Clim 18(7):1096–1108
Zhou T, Li Z (2002) Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM. Clim Dyn 19:167–180
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge NOAA National Centers for Environment Information for providing public access to the IGRA radiosonde data (https://doi.org/10.7289/V5X63K0Q), which are available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/weather-balloon/integrated-global-radiosonde-archive. We would like to thank National Meteorological Information Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration for providing daily gauge-based precipitation data (http://data.cma.cn/en). This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2014CB441303).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dong, W., Lin, Y., Wright, J.S. et al. Precipitable water and CAPE dependence of rainfall intensities in China. Clim Dyn 52, 3357–3368 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4327-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4327-8