Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The recent 2014–2016 period was marked by a failed El Niño favoring a subsequent extreme El Niño with dramatic worldwide impacts. Here this new type of major event so-called the delayed super El Niño is realistically captured by a simple dynamical model for the equatorial Pacific with emphasis on the role of state-dependent stochastic wind bursts. We analyze qualitative analogues for this event compared and contrasted with the 1997–1998 super El Niño in ensemble experiments based on the simple model. In agreement with recent studies, the timing and intensity of such an event is strongly controlled by atmospheric wind bursts, both easterly and westerly. In particular, the early stalling by easterly wind bursts and subsequent development by westerly wind bursts as observed during 2014–2016 is consistently retrieved. We show in addition that individual wind bursts may control the main characteristics of the event only during its early development while sequences of consecutive wind bursts have more important cumulative effects. Another important result from the present analysis is the significant statistical occurence of the delayed super El Niño (around 20–30%) compared with the one of directly formed super events as that of 1997–1998. Such a high occurence is directly linked to the random evolution of wind bursts and is retrieved here for all phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation used for the initiation of the ensemble experiments. These results suggest that the delayed super El Niño is not an unusual type of super event and could reoccur in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Behringer D, Ji M, Leetmaa A (1998) An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I: The ocean data assimilation system. Mon Wea Rev 126:1013–1021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M, van Rensch P, Collins M, Vecchi G, Timmermann A, Santoso A, McPhaden M, Wu L, England M, Wang G, Guilyardi E, Jin F-F (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 4:111–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen D, Lian T, Fu C, Cane M, Tang Y, Murtugudde R, Song X, Wu Q, Zhou L (2015) Strong influence of westerly wind bursts on El Niño diversity. Nat Geosci 8:339–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen N, Majda A (2016) Simple dynamical models capturing the key features of the central Pacific El Niño. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:11732–11737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen N, Majda A (2017) Simple stochastic dynamical models capturing the statistical diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 4(7):1468–1473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen N, Majda A (2018) Observations and mechanisms of a simple stochastic dynamical model capturing El Niño diversity. J Clim 31(1):449–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiodi M, Harrison D (2017) Observed El Niño SST development and the effects of easterly and westerly events in 2014/2015. J Clim 30:1505–1519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen HM, Berner J, Coleman DRB, Palmer TN (2017) Stochastic parameterization and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J Clim 17:17–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke AJ (2008) An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, p 324

  • Deng Q, Khouider B, Majda AJ (2015) The MJO in a coarse-resolution GCM with a stochastic multicloud parameterization. J Atmos Sci 72:55–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng Q, Khouider B, Majda AJ, Ajayamohan RS (2015) Effect of stratiform heating on the planetary-scale organization of tropical convection. J Atmos Sci 73:371–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eisenman I, Yu L, Tziperman E (2005) Westerly wind bursts: ENSO’s tail rather than the dog? J Clim 18:5224–5238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov A (2002) The response of the coupled tropical ocean–atmosphere to westerly wind bursts. Q J R Meteorol Soc 128:1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov A, Hu S, Lengaigne M, Guilyardi E (2015) The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development and diversity of El Niño events. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2126-4

  • Frankignoul C, Hasselman K (1977) Stochastic climate models, Part II Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus 29:289–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gebbie G, Eisenman I, Wittenberg A, Tziperman E (2007) Modulation of westerly wind bursts by sea surface temperature: a semistochastic feedback for ENSO. J Atmos Sci 64:3281–3295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswani BB, Khouider B, Phani R, Mukhopadhay P, Majda AJ (2017) Improving synoptic and intraseasonal variability in CFSv2 via stochastic representation of organized convection. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071542

  • Harrison D, Vecchi G (1997) Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific. J Clim 10:3131–3156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann K (1977) Stochastic climate models Part I Theory. Tellus 28:473–485

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendon H, Wheeler M, Zhang C (2007) Seasonal dependence of the MJO–ENSO relationship. J Clim 20:531–543

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu S, Fedorov AV, Lengaigne V, Guilyardi E (2014) The impact of westerly wind bursts on the diversity and predictability of El Niño events, an ocean energetics perspective. Geophys Res Lett 41:4654–4663

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Jha B, Wang W, Huang Bohua, Huang Boyin (2012) An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Niños: air–sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends. Clim Dyn 38:2017–2035

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu S, Fedorov A (2016) Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:2005–2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu S, Fedorov A (2017) The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00,382-017-3531-2

  • Jin F-F, Lin L, Timmermann A, Zhao J (2007) Ensemble-mean dynamics of the ENSO recharge oscillator under state-dependent stochastic forcing. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027,372

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kessler WS (2002) Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015924

  • Kleeman R (2008) Stochastic theories for the irregularity of ENSO. Philos Trans R Soc 366:2509–2524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawler GF (2006) Introduction to Stochastic Processes. Chapman and Hall/CRC, p 192

  • Lengaigne M, Boulanger JP, Delecluse P, Menkes C, Guilyardi E, Slingo J (2004) Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacic and their influence on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system: a review. In: Wang C, Xie SP, Carton JA (eds) Earth’s climate. AGU, Washington D.C., pp 49–69. https://doi.org/10.1029/147GM03

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine A, McPhaden M (2016) How the July 2014 easterly wind burst gave the 2015–2016 El Niño a head start. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069204

  • L’Heureux M, Takahashi K, Watkins A, Barnston A, Becker E, Di Liberto T, Gamble F, Gottschalck J, Halpert M, Huang B, Mosquera-Vasquez K, Wittenberg A (2017) Observing and Predicting the 2015–16 El Niño. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1

  • Lian T, Chen D (2017) Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Niño events. Clim Dyn 60(9):1589–1600

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin J-L, Kiladis GN, Mapes BE, Weickmann KM, Sperber KR, Lin W, Wheeler MC, Schubert SD, Del Genio A, Donner LJ, Emori S, Gueremy J-F, Hourdin F, Rasch PJ, Roeckner E, Scinocca JF (2006) Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals. J Clim 19:2665–2690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Majda A, Klein R (2003) Systematic multiscale models for the Tropics. J Atmos Sci 60:393–408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Majda AJ, Harlim J (2012) Filtering complex turbulent systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 368

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Majda AJ, Stechmann SN (2009) The skeleton of tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:8417–8422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McPhaden M (2015) Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nat Clim Change 5:791–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menkes CE, Lengaigne M, Vialard J, Puy M, Marchesiello P, Cravatte S, Cambon G (2014) About the role of Westerly Wind Events in the possible development of an El Niño in 2014. Geophys Res Lett 41:6476–6483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min Q, Su J, Zhang R, Rong X (2015) What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014? Geophys Res Lett 42:6762–6770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore AM, Kleeman R (1999) Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 12:1199–1220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC, Jin F-F, Wakata Y, Yamagata T, Zebiak SE (1998) ENSO theory. J Geophys Res Oceans 103(C7):261–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paek H, Yu J-Y, Qian C (2016) Why were the 2015/2016 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niños different. Geophys Res Lett 44:1848–1856

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng P, Kumar A, Hu Z-Z (2017) What drove the Pacific and North America climate anomalies in winter 2014-15? Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4035-9

  • Perez CL, Moore A, Zavala-Garay J, Kleeman R (2005) A comparison of the influence of additive and multiplicative stochastic forcing on a coupled model of ENSO. J Clim 18:5066–5085

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philander S, Fedorov A (2003) Is El Niño Sporadic or Cyclic? Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci 31:579–594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Puy M, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, Guilyardi E (2016) Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves. Clim Dyn 46:2155–2178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Puy M, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, Guilyardi E, Voldoire A, Madec G (2016) Modulation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to westerly wind events by the oceanic background state. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3480-1

  • Reynolds R, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seiki A, Takayabu YN, Yasuda T, Sato N, Takahashi C, Yoneyama K, Shirooka R (2011) Westerly wind bursts and their relationship with ENSO in CMIP3 models. J Geophys Res 116:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stechmann S, Ogrosky H (2014) The Walker circulation, diabatic heating, and outgoing longwave radiation. Geophys Res Lett 41:9097–9105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takahashi K, Dewitte B (2015) Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes. Clim Dyn 41(5–6):1627–1645

    Google Scholar 

  • Thual S, Majda A, Stechmann S (2014) A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO. J Atmos Sci 71:697–715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thual S, Majda A, Chen N, Stechmann S (2016) Simple Stochastic model for El Niño with Westerly Wind Bursts. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113(37):10245–10250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tziperman E, Yu L (2007) Quantifying the dependence of westerly wind bursts on the large-scale tropical Pacific SST. J Clim 20:2760–2768

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi G, Harrison D (2000) Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño, and equatorial westerly wind events. J Clim 13(11):1814–1830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisheimer A, Corti S, Palmer T, Vitart F (2014) Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Philos Trans R Soc A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0290

  • Zebiak S, Cane M (1987) A Model El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Month Wea Rev 115:2262–2278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J, Kumar A, Huang B, Balmaseda MA, Hu Z-Z, Marx L, Kinter JL (2016) The role of off-equatorial surface temperature anomalies in the 2014 El Niño prediction. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep19677

Download references

Acknowledgements

The research of A. J. M. is partially supported by the Office of Naval Research grant ONR MURI N00014-12-1-0912 and the center for Prototype Climate Modeling at the NYU Abu Dhabi Research Institute. S.T. and N.C. are supported as postdoctoral fellows through A.J.M.’s ONR MURI Grant. Reanalysis data in supplementary information is provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA from their website (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). The code and data of the experiments are available on application to the corresponding author.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, and Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, USA

    Sulian Thual, Andrew J. Majda & Nan Chen

  2. Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

    Andrew J. Majda

Authors
  1. Sulian Thual
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Andrew J. Majda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Nan Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nan Chen.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 12258 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Thual, S., Majda, A.J. & Chen, N. Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model. Clim Dyn 52, 2351–2366 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4265-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4265-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation