Recent intensified impact of December Arctic Oscillation on subsequent January temperature in Eurasia and North Africa

Article

Abstract

This study reveals an intensified influence of December Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent January surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and North Africa in recent decades. The connection is statistically insignificant during 1957/58–1979/80 (P1), which becomes statistically significant during 1989/90–2011/12 (P2). The possible causes are further investigated. Associated with positive December AO during P2, significant anomalous anticyclone emerges over the central North Atlantic, which is accompanied with significant westerly and easterly anomalies along 45°−65°N and 20°−40°N, respectively. This favors the significant influence of December AO on the subsequent January SAT and atmospheric circulation over Eurasia and North Africa via triggering the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly that persists into the subsequent January. By contrast, the December AO-related anomalous anticyclone during P1 is weak and is characterized by two separate centers located in the eastern and western North Atlantic. Correspondingly, the westerly and easterly anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean are weak and the-related tripole SST anomaly is not well formed, unfavorable for the persistent impact of the December AO into the subsequent January. Further analyses indicate that the different anomalous anticyclone associated with the December AO over the North Atlantic may be induced by the strengthened synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic, which may be related to the interdecadal intensification of the storm track activity. Additionally, the planetary stationary wave related to the December AO propagates from surface into upper stratosphere at mid-latitudes during P2, which further propagates downward to the troposphere and causes anomalous atmospheric circulation in the subsequent January.

Keywords

Arctic Oscillation Planetary waves Storm track Interdecadal change 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants no. 41505073, 41605059, and 41375083), Research Council of Norway supported project SNOWGLACE (Grant no. 244166/E10), and the Young Talent Support Program of the China Association for Science and Technology (Grant no. 2016QNRC001). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets can be obtained from ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis.derived/. The HadISLP2r data can be obtained from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2. CRU_TS_3.21 can be obtained from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/. JRA-55 reanalysis can be obtained from http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html. The NOAA SST can be obtained from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded.

References

  1. Allan R, Ansell T (2006) A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP): 1850–2004. J Clim 19(22):5816CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andrewes DG, Holton JR, Leovy CB (1987) Middle atmosphere dynamics. Academic press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  3. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (1999) Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J Geophys Res 104:30937–30946CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Castanheira J, Graf HF (2003) North Pacific–North Atlantic relationships under stratospheric control?. J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002754 Google Scholar
  5. Chen S, Chen W, Wei K (2013a) Recent trends in winter temperature extremes in eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO. Adv Atmos Sci 30:1712–1724CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen S, Chen W, Yu B, Graf HF (2013b) Modulation of the seasonal footprinting mechanism by the boreal spring Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 40:6384–6389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chen S, Yu B, Chen W (2014) An analysis on the physical process of the influence of AO on ENSO. Clim Dyn 42:973–989CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen S, Yu B, Chen W (2015a) An interdecadal change in the influence of the spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent ENSO around the early 1970s. Clim Dyn 44:1109–1126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chen S, Wu R, Chen W (2015b) The changing relationship between interannual variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Tropical Atlantic SST. J Clim 28(2):485–504CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chen S, Chen W, Yu B (2017a) The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 48(9–10):2949–2965CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chen S, Wu R, Chen W (2017b) A strengthened impact of November Arctic oscillation on subsequent tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variation since the late-1970s. Clim Dyn.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3937-x Google Scholar
  12. Cheung HN, Zhou W, Mok HY, Wu MC (2012) Relationship between Ural-Siberian blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon in relation to the Arctic oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Clim 25:4242–4257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Christiansen B (2001) Downward propagation of zonal mean zonal wind anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere: model and reanalysis. J Geophys Res 106:27307–27322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J (2010) Winter 2009–2010: a case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys Res Lett 37(17):204–216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Deser C, Blackmon ML (1993) Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900–1989. J Clim 6:1743–1753CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Edmon J, Hoskins B, McIntyre M (1980) Eliassen–Palm cross sections for the troposphere. J Atmos Sci 37:2600–2616CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gao M, Yang J, Gong D, Kim S (2014) Unstable relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and East Asian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 34(7):2522–2528CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gong DY, Yang J, Kim SJ, Gao YQ, Guo D, Zhou TJ, Hu M (2011) Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 37:2199–2216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hartmann DL, Wallace JM, Limpasuvan V, Thompson DW, Holton JR (2000) Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci 97:1412–1417CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. He S (2013) Reduction of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability after the mid-1980s and possible cause. Chin Sci Bull 58:1331–1338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. He S (2015) Asymmetry in the Arctic Oscillation teleconnection with January cold extremes in Northeast China. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 8(6):386–391Google Scholar
  23. He S, Wang H (2013) Impact of the November/December Arctic Oscillation on the following January temperature in East Asia. J Geophy Res 118:12981–12998Google Scholar
  24. He S, Gao Y, Li F, Wang H, He Y (2017) Impact of Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian climate: A review. Earth Sci Rev (164): 48–62Google Scholar
  25. Holton JR (1992) An Introduction to dynamic meteorology, 3rd edn. Academic Press, Cambridge, p 511Google Scholar
  26. Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Jin F (2010) Eddy-induced instability for low-frequency variability. J Atmos Sci 67:1947–1964CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Jin F, Pan L, Watanabe M (2006) Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow interaction. Part I: a linear closure. J Atmos Sci 63:1677–1694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kalnay et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–470CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kim HJ, Ahn JB (2012) Possible impact of the autumnal North Pacific SST and November AO on the East Asian winter temperature. J Geophys Res 117:D12104Google Scholar
  31. Kobayashi S et al (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics, JRA-55 project. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93(1):5–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lee SS, Lee JY, Wang B, Ha KJ, Heo KY, Jin FF, Straus DM, Shukla J (2012) Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Clim Dyn 39:313–327CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Li F, Wang H (2013) Autumn sea ice cover, winter northern hemisphere annular mode, and winter precipitation in Eurasia. J Clim 26:3968–3981CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Li F, Wang H, Gao Y (2014) On the strengthened relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation: a comparison of 1950–1970 and 1983–2012. J Clim 27:5075–5091CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Li F, Wang H, Gao Y (2015) Extra-tropical ocean warming and wintertime Arctic sea ice cover since the 1990s. J Clim 28(14):5510–5522CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Luo D, Cha J (2012) The North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Atlantic jet variability: precursors to NAO regimes and transitions. J Atmos Sci 69(12):3763–3787CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Luo D, Xiao Y, Yao Y et al (2016) Impact of ural blocking on winter warm arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: blocking-induced amplification. J Clim 29(11):3926–3948Google Scholar
  38. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Nakamura T, Tachibana Y, Honda M, Yamane S (2006) Influence of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode on ENSO by modulating westerly wind bursts. Geophys Res Lett 33:L07709Google Scholar
  40. Nakamura T, Tachibana Y, Shimoda H (2007) Importance of cold and dry surges in substantiating the NAM and ENSO relationship. Geophys Res Lett 34:L22703CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Overland J, Wang M (2015) Increased variability in the early winter subarctic North American atmospheric circulation. J Clim 28(18):7297–7305CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Pan L (2005) Observed positive feedback between the NAO and the North Atlantic SSTA tripole. Geophys Res Lett 32:L06707.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022427 Google Scholar
  43. Park TW, Ho CH, Yang S (2011) Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia. J Clim 24:68–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Quadrelli R, Wallace J (2002) Dependence of the structure of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode on the polarity of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015807 Google Scholar
  45. Randel WJ (1987) A study of planetary waves in the southern winter troposphere and stratosphere. Part I: wave structure and vertical propagation. J Atmos Sci 44(6):917–935 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1982) Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon Weather Rev 110:354–384CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Schlesinger ME, Ramankutty N (1994) An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367(6465):723–726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Shubert S et al (2009) A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. J Clim 22:5251–5272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Smagorinsky J (1953) The dynamical influence of large-scale heat sources and sinks on the quasi-stationary mean motions of the atmosphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 79:342–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Thompson DW, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Thompson DW, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability*. J Clim 13:1000–1016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Thompson DW, Wallace JM (2001) Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science 293:85–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Trenberth KE, Solomon A (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wang L, Chen W (2010) Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009. Geophys Res Lett 37(9):90–98Google Scholar
  56. Wang L, Huang R, Gu L, Chen W, Kang L (2009) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. J Clim 22:4860–4872CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Watanabe M, Kimoto M, Nitta T (1999) A comparison of decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic detected in observations and a coupled GCM. J Clim 12:2920–2940CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Wei J, Lin Z (2009) The leading mode of wintertime cold wave frequency in northern China during the last 42 years and its association with Arctic Oscillation. Atmos Ocean Sci Letts 2(3):130–134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Woo SH, Kim BM, Jeong JH, Kim SJ, Lim GH (2012) Decadal changes in surface air temperature variability and cold surge characteristics over northeast Asia and their relation with the Arctic Oscillation for the past three decades (1979–2011). J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016929 Google Scholar
  60. Yu B, Shabbar A, Zwiers F (2007) The enhanced PNA-like climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability. J Clim 20:5285–5300CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Geophysical InstituteUniversity of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
  2. 2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina
  3. 3.Climate Change Research CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  5. 5.Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
  6. 6.NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air ResearchKjellerNorway

Personalised recommendations