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Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico

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Abstract

Anticyclonic cold surges entering the Gulf of Mexico (Nortes) generate ocean waves that disrupt maritime activities. Norte derived waves are less energetic than the devastating waves from tropical cyclones, but more frequent (~ 22 events/year) and with larger spatial influence. Despite their importance, few studies characterize Nortes derived waves and assess the effects of climate change on their occurrence. This study presents a method to identify and characterize Nortes with relation to their derived waves in the Gulf of Mexico. We based the identification of Nortes on synoptic measurements of pressure differences between Yucatan and Texas and wind speed at different buoy locations in the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, we identified the events in the CFSR reanalysis (present climate) and the CNRM-M5 model for the present climate and the RCP 8.5 scenario. We then forced a wave model to characterize the wave power generated by each event, followed by a principal component analysis and classification by k-means clustering analysis. Five different Nortes types were identified, each one representing a characteristic intensity and area of influence of the Norte driven waves. Finally, we estimated the occurrence of each Norte type for the present and future climates, where the CNRM-M5 results indicate that the high-intensity events will be less frequent in a warming climate, while mild events will become more frequent. The consequences of such changes may provide relief for maritime and coastal operations because of reduced downtimes. This result is particularly relevant for the operational design of coastal and marine facilities.

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Acknowledgements

UNAM provided funding for this study through the Instituto de Ingeniería internal Project no. 5358/4340 and PAPIIT Project IA100418. We would like to thank for the valuable comments provided by Tereza Cavazos and the anonymous reviewers, Gonzalo Martin and Iván Adrián for the IT support, as well as to José López González. Christian M. Appendini acknowledges support from PASPA-UNAM. J.A. Kurczyn acknowledges support from Cátedras CONACYT Project 1912 and Ciencia Básica Project 257075.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto de Abrigo s/n, 97356, Sisal, Yucatán, Mexico

    Christian M. Appendini

  2. ICTS-SOCIB, 07122, Palma, Spain

    Jaime Hernández-Lasheras

  3. Programa de Maestría y Doctorado en Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico

    Rafael Meza-Padilla

  4. Cátedras Conacyt-Instituto Epomex, Universidad Autónoma de Campeche, Campeche, 24079, Mexico

    Jorge A. Kurczyn

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  1. Christian M. Appendini
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  2. Jaime Hernández-Lasheras
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  3. Rafael Meza-Padilla
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  4. Jorge A. Kurczyn
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Correspondence to Christian M. Appendini.

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Appendini, C.M., Hernández-Lasheras, J., Meza-Padilla, R. et al. Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico. Clim Dyn 51, 3747–3763 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4108-4

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