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On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians

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Abstract

The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that prevail over the eastern Mediterranean during the extended summer season. The performance of five high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the Etesian climatology as well as the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated. The model outputs are validated against reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, 20CR-v2c and ERA20-C) and daily station observations covering the period May to September 1989–2004. Results show that most RCMs coherently reproduce the number of observed Etesian days, the duration of their episodes and the wind field over the Aegean Sea. The majority of RCMs better reproduce in situ wind speed than the driving model, especially over the central and southwestern Aegean Sea. All models represent very well the mean state of the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with Etesians both at the surface and at mid to upper troposphere, compared to reanalyses. Statistically significant differences vary depending on the subperiod, generally with a better performance for September. The performance of the models improves significantly with decreasing pressure gradient over the Aegean. Finally, results highlight the ability of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in simulating the Etesians over the Aegean, especially the DMI, SMHI and IPSL, which makes them efficient tools for wind energy applications.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Dr. Michel Deque and Dr. Clotilde Dubois (CNRM), Dr. Grigory Nikulin (SMHI), Dr. Fredrik Boberg (DMI) as well as Dr. Robert Vautard and Dr. Isabelle Tobin (IPSL) for providing the ALADIN v5.3, ARPEGE-v5.2, RCA-v4, HIRHAM371 and WRF3.3.1 simulations respectively. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which improved the manuscript. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Greek State Scholarships Foundation and the DFG (German Science Foundation) project “The Etesian wind system and energy potential over the Aegean Sea; past, present, future”. We are indebted to the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for the observational dataset.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany

    Stella Dafka, Jürg Luterbacher & Elena Xoplaki

  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

    Andrea Toreti

  3. Centre of International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, 35390, Giessen, Germany

    Jürg Luterbacher

  4. Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Prodromos Zanis

  5. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

    Evangelos Tyrlis

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Correspondence to Stella Dafka.

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Dafka, S., Toreti, A., Luterbacher, J. et al. On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians. Clim Dyn 51, 1687–1706 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3977-2

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