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Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed

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Abstract

For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported under the Florida Sea Grant College Program, a partnership between the Florida Board of Education, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Florida’s citizens and governments, under Project R-CS-58 with assistance from the Pinellas County Government. We would like to acknowledge Streamline Technologies Inc. for their amazing work on generating a detailed model of the Cross Bayou Watershed which was instrumental in our studies. We would also like to acknowledge Dr. Joel Casey Dietrich at North Carolina State University regarding his work on the FigureGen software which has been an invaluable tool for visualizing ADCIRC + SWAN output.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA

    Justin Joyce & Ni-Bin Chang

  2. Watershed Management Section, Pinellas County Government, Clearwater, FL, USA

    Rahim Harji

  3. Florida Sea Grant College Program, Miami, FL, USA

    Thomas Ruppert

  4. Streamline Technologies, Inc., Winter Springs, FL, USA

    Peter Singhofen

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  1. Justin Joyce
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  2. Ni-Bin Chang
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  3. Rahim Harji
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ni-Bin Chang.

Appendix: boundary condition test

Appendix: boundary condition test

See Fig. 21.

Fig. 21
figure 21

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Integration between ADCIRC + SWAN and ICPR during Tropical Storm Barry in 2007: a ADCIRC + SWAN and ICPR Interface at Cross Bayou Canal inlets. b Comparison of incorporating flux and no-flux boundaries near Cross Bayou Canal southwestern inlet during tropical storm Barry in 2007. c Comparison of incorporating flux and no-flux boundaries near Cross Bayou Canal northeastern inlet during tropical storm Barry in 2007.

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Joyce, J., Chang, NB., Harji, R. et al. Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed. Clim Dyn 51, 383–409 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3930-4

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