Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Asian droughts in the last millennium: a search for robust impacts of Pacific Ocean surface temperature variabilities

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigates the robustness of hydroclimate impacts in Asia due to major drivers of climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Composite analyses are carried out on a tree ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index as well as on a long coupled global climate model control experiment. El Niño (La Niña) has a robust impact on wet (dry) conditions in West Asia and dry (wet) conditions in South Asia. For the PDO, impacts are found throughout the Asia domain. However, identifying the robust signals due to PDO from these analyses is more challenging due to the limited lengths of the data. Results indicate that West Asia (South and Southeast Asia) experiences wet (dry) conditions during periods of positive PDO. For East Asia, there is indication that positive (negative) PDO is associated with wet (dry) conditions around and southward of 30°N and dry (wet) conditions north of this latitude. This result is consistent with the current understanding of the role of PDO in the “southern-flood northern-drought” phenomenon in China. We suggest that specific extreme events or periods have regional impacts with strong intensities that cannot be fully explained through the composite analysis of ENSO, PDO, or any combination thereof. Two such examples are shown to illustrate this: the Strange Parallel Drought (1756–1768 CE) and the Great Drought (1876–1878 CE). Additionally, during these climate events, ENSO and PDO can be in phases which are not consistent with the required phases of these drivers that explain the concurrent drought and pluvial conditions in Asia. Therefore, not all historical drought and pluvial events in Northeast Asia and northern China can be related back to ENSO or PDO. Finally, we also examine the dynamical characteristics of the reported hydroclimatic impacts in the global climate model experiment. There is moisture transport into (out of) regions that exhibit wet (dry) conditions in a manner consistent with the various ENSO and PDO composites, thereby providing physical explanation of the index-based results.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alley WM (1984) Palmer Drought Severity Index: limitations and assumptions. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:1100–1109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buckley BM, Anchukaitis KJ, Penny D et al (2010) Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia. Proc Nat Acad Sci 107(15):6748–6752. doi:10.1073/pnas.0910827107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, D’Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC, Wright WE (2010) Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328:486–489. doi:10.1126/science.1185188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai AG, Trenberth KE, Qian TT (2004) A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130. doi:10.1175/JHM-386.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dilley M, Heyman BN (1995) ENSO and disaster: droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events. Disasters 19(3):181–193. doi:10.1111/j.1467-7717.1995.tb00338.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong X (2016) Influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian summer monsoon in non-ENSO years. Atmos Sci Lett 17:115–120. doi:10.1002/asl.634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289(5487):2068–2074. doi:10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haines A, Kovats RS, Campbell-Lendrum D, Corvalán C (2006) Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public Health 120(7):586–596. doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2006.01.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamon WR (1961) Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Proc Am Soc Civ Eng 87:107–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Hernandez M, Ummenhofer CC, Anchukaitis KJ (2015) Multi-scale drought and ocean-atmosphere variability in monsoon Asia. Environ Res Lett 10:074010. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobi J, Perrone D, Duncan LL, Hornberger G (2013) A tool for calculating the Palmer drought indices. Water Resour Res 49:6086–6089. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR (1986) Sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer’s Z-index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25:77–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2007) Low-frequency variability of the Indian Monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: the “weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s. J Clim 20:4255–4266. doi:10.1175/JCLI4254.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC, Nath MJ (2006) ENSO modulation of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the East Asian Monsoon—a model study. J Clim 19:4508–4530. doi:10.1175/JCLI3878.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Dai A, Zhou T, Lu J (2010) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000. Clim Dyn 34:501–514. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Xie SP, Cook ER, Huang G, D’Arrigo R, Liu F, Ma J, Zheng XT (2011) Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium. Nat Clim Change 1(2):118–114. doi:10.1038/nclimate1086

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Gille EP, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Overpeck JT, Keimig FT, Gross WS (2000) Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation. IGBP Pages/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2000-075. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME et al (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly. Science 326:1256–1260. doi:10.1126/science.1177303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712. doi:10.1002/joc.1181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Otto-Bliesner B, Brady E, Fasullo J, Jahn A, Landrum L, Stevenson S, Rosenbloom N, Mai A, Strand G (2016) Climate variability and change since 850 CE: an ensemble approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper 45 US Department of Commerce p 58

  • Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311):43–51. doi:10.1038/nature09364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C, Zhou TJ (2014) Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2100. J Clim 27:1210–1222. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rockstrom J, Lannerstad M, Falkenmark M (2007) Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:6253–6260. doi:10.1017/S1355770X05002329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shah T (2008) Taming the anarchy: groundwater governance in South Asia. RFF Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi F, Zhao S, Guo Z, Goosse H (2017) Multi-proxy reconstructions of precipitation field in China over the past 500 years. Clim Past Discuss. doi:10.5194/cp-2017-2 (in review)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sivakumar MVK, Das HP, Brunini O (2005) Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics. Clim Change 70:31–72. doi:10.1007/1-4020-4166-7_4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song F, Zhou T, Qian Y (2014) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/2013GL058705

    Google Scholar 

  • Syed FS, Giorgi F, Pal JS, King MP (2006) Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central southwest Asia part 1: observations. Theor Appl Climatol 86:147–160. doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0217-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The NCAR Command Language (2014) Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. doi:10.5065/D6WD3XH5

  • Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38(1):55–94. doi:10.2307/210739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tong J, Qiang Z, Deming Z, Yijin W (2006) Yangtze floods and droughts (China) and teleconnections with ENSO activities (1470–2003). Quat Int 144(1):29–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vorosmarty JC, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers R (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284–288. doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Otterå OH, Gao Y, Wang HJ (2012) The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Clim Dyn 39:2917. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1373-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Wang HJ, Otterå OH, Gao YQ, Suo LL, Furevik T, Yu L (2013) Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in late 1970s. Atmos Chem Phys 13(24):12433–12450. doi:10.5194/acp-13-12433-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Huang J, He Y, Guan Y (2014) Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry–wet Changes. Sci Rep 4:6651. doi:10.1038/srep06651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Hu Z, Kirtman B (2003) Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in East Asia. J Clim 16(22):3742–3758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang F, Shi F, Kang S, Wang S, Xiao Z, Nakatsuka T, Shi J (2013) Comparison of the dryness/wetness index in China with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. Theor Appl Climatol 114:553. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0858-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L, Furevik T, Otterå OH, Gao YQ (2015) Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China: a comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model. Clim Dyn 44(1):475–494. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2141-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Clim 10:1004–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Li H, Stuecker MF, Jin F-F, Turner AG (2016) A new understanding of El Nino’s impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO Combination Mode. J Clim 29:4347–4359. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0104.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu YL, Wang HJ, Ma JH, Wang T, Sun JQ (2015) Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific decadal oscillation to the late 1990s’ shift in East China summer rainfall. J Geophys Res 120(17):8817–8827. doi:10.1002/2015JD023545

    Google Scholar 

  • Zou X, Zhai P, Zhang Q (2005) Variations in droughts over China 1951–2003. Geophys Res Lett 32(L04707). doi:10.1029/2004GL021853

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701). EY acknowledges the support of Uni Research Climate for a research visit to Bergen in 2015. MPK thanks the Bjerknes Centre FTI internal grant. We also thank our institutes for encouraging this collaborative study. Comments from the reviewers have led to improvements in this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Entao Yu & Yongqi Gao

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Entao Yu

  3. Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre of Climate Research, 5008, Bergen, Norway

    Martin P. King, Stefan Sobolowski & Odd Helge Otterå

  4. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Yongqi Gao

Authors
  1. Entao Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Martin P. King
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Stefan Sobolowski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Odd Helge Otterå
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yongqi Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin P. King.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PPT 1902 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yu, E., King, M.P., Sobolowski, S. et al. Asian droughts in the last millennium: a search for robust impacts of Pacific Ocean surface temperature variabilities. Clim Dyn 50, 4671–4689 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3897-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3897-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation