Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

Abstract

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854–1999), climate proxies (AD 1600–1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600–1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16–27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2–7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55–80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47–54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16–32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

References

  1. Abreu JA, Beer J, Ferriz-Mas A (2010) Past and future solar activity from cosmogenic radionuclides. In: Cranmer RS, J. Hoeksema JT, Kohl JL (eds) SOHO-23: understanding a peculiar solar minimum. AstrSoc P 428:287–295

  2. Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426:274–278. doi:10.1038/nature02101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Anet JG, Muthers S, Rozanov EV, Raible CC, Peter T, Stenke A, Shapiro AI, Beer J, Steinhilber F, Brönnimann S, Arfeuille FX, Brugnara Y, Schmutz W (2013a) Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum. Atmos Chem Phys 13:10951–10967. doi:10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Anet JG, Rozanov EV, Muthers S, Peter T, Brönnimann Stefan, Arfeuille FX, Beer J, Shapiro AI, Raible CC, Steinhilber F, Schmutz WK (2013b) Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/grl.50806

    Google Scholar 

  5. Arfeuille F, Weisenstein D, Mack H, Rozanov E, Peter T, Brönnimann S (2014) Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present. Clim Past 10:359–375. doi:10.5194/cp-10-359-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Latif M, Dommenget D (1999) Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin. Geophys Res Lett 26:615–618. doi:10.1029/1999GL900042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Bhend J, Franke J, Folini D, Wild M, Brönnimann S (2012) An ensemble based approach to climate reconstructions. Clim Past 8:963–976. doi:10.5194/cp-8-963-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Booth BBB, Dunstone NJ, Halloran PR, Andrews T, Bellouin N (2012) Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 484(7393):228–232. doi:10.1038/nature10946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Breitenmoser P, Beer J, Brönnimann S, Frank D, Steinhilber F, Wanner H (2012) Solar and volcanic fingerprints in tree-ring chronologies over the past 2000 years. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 313–314:127–139. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.10.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Brönnimann S, Annis JL, Vogler C, Jones PD (2007) Reconstructing the quasi-biennial oscillation back to the early 1900s. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2007GL031354

    Google Scholar 

  11. Chenhua S (2015) Analysis of detrended time-lagged cross-correlation between two nonstationary time series. Phys Lett A 379:680–687. doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.12.036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Anchukaitis KJ (2008) ENSO reconstructions from long tree-ring chronologies: unifying the differences? Talk presented at a special workshop on “Reconciling ENSO Chronologies for the Past 500 Years”, held in Moorea, French Polynesia on April 2–3

  13. D’Orgeville M, Peltier WR (2007) On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: might they be related? Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2007GL031584

    Google Scholar 

  14. Dong BW, Sutton RT (2002) Adjustment of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to a sudden change in the thermohaline circulation. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2002GL0115229

    Google Scholar 

  15. Dong BW, Sutton RT (2007) Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in coupled GCM. J Clim 20:4920–4939. doi:10.1175/JCLI4284.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Dong BW, Sutton RT, Scaife AA (2006) Multidecadal modulation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2006GL025766

    Google Scholar 

  17. Dong K, Zhang H, Gao Y (2014) Modeling complex system correlation using detrended cross-correlation coefficient. Math Probl Eng. doi:10.1155/2014/230537

    Google Scholar 

  18. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080. doi:10.1029/2000GL012745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Fan F, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2009) Understanding Changes in the Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium: insights from a long-term coupled model simulation. J Clim 22:1736–1748. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2336.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Fedorov AV, Philander SG (2000) Is El Niño changing? Science 288:1997–2002. doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Fedorov AV, Philander SG (2001) A stability analysis of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: bridging measurements and theory for El Niño. J Clim 14:3086–3101. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3086:ASAOTO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Frauen C, Dommenget D (2012) Influences of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on the predictability of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2011GL050520

    Google Scholar 

  23. Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta D, (2006) A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2005GL024803

    Google Scholar 

  24. Gray ST, Graumlich LJ, Betancourt JL, Pederson GT (2004) A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2004GL019932

    Google Scholar 

  25. Gray LJ, Woolings TJ, Andrews M, Knight J (2016) Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking. Q J R Meteorol Soc 142:1890–1903. doi:10.1002/qj.2782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hajian S, Movahed MS (2010) Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of sunspot numbers and river flow fluctuations. Physica A 389:4942–4957. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.06.025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. He LY, Chen SP (2011) A new approach to quantify power-law cross-correlation and its application to commodity markets. Physica A 390:3806–3814. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2011.06.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Huang B, Banzon VF, Freeman E, Lawrimore J, Liu W, Peterson TC, Smith TM, Thorne PW, Woodruff SD, Zhang HM (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): part I. Upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Huang B, Thorne P, Smith T, Liu W, Lawrimore J, Banzon V, Zhang H, Peterson T, Menne M (2016) Further exploring and quantifying uncertainties for extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) Version 4 (v4). J Clim 29:3119–3142. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0430.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Jiang P, Yu Z, Gautam MR (2013) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influence on the spatiotemporal variability of heavy precipitation in the western United States. Global Planet Change 109:38–45. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.07.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Jiang H, Muscheler R, Björck S, Seidenkrantz MS, Olsen J, Sha L, Sjolte J, Eiríksson J, Ran L, Knudsen KL, Knudsen MF (2015) Solar forcing of Holocene summer sea-surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic. Geology. doi:10.1130/G36377.1

    Google Scholar 

  32. Joly M, Voldoire A (2009) Influence of ENSO on the West African monsoon: Temporal aspects and atmospheric processes. J Clim 22:3193–3210 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2450.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Joshi MK, Pandey AC (2011) Trend and spectral analysis of rainfall over India during 1901–2000. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2010JD014966

    Google Scholar 

  34. Kang DD, Lee DI, Jung JW (2013) Dynamical characteristics in time series between PM10 and wind speed. In: Proceedings of the international conference on environment, energy, ecosystems and development Seoul Korea: 78–82

  35. Kang IS, No HH, Kucharski F (2014) ENSO amplitude modulation associated with the mean SST changes in the tropical Central Pacific induced by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J Clim 27:7911–7920. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00018.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Kayano MT, Capistrano VB (2014) How the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) modifies the ENSO influence on the South American rainfall. Int J Climatol 34(1):162–178. doi:10.1002/joc.3674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Kim S (2015) ppcor: an R package for a fast calculation to semi-partial correlation coefficients. Commun Stat Appl Methods 22(6):665–674. doi:10.5351/CSAM.2015.22.6.665

    Google Scholar 

  38. Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA (2006) Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 33(17). doi:10.1029/2006GL026242

  39. Knudsen MF, Jacobsen BH, Seidenkrantz MS, Olsen J (2014) Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation since termination of the little ice age. Nat Commun. doi:10.1038/ncomms4323

    Google Scholar 

  40. Kodera K (2004) Solar influence on the Indian Ocean monsoon through dynamical processes. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2004GL020928

    Google Scholar 

  41. Kodera K (2005) Possible solar modulation of the ENSO cycle. Pap Meteorol Geophys 55(1/2):21–32. doi:10.2467/mripapers.55.21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Kristoufek L (2015) Measuring correlations between non-stationary series with DCCA coefficient. Phys A 402:291–298. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2014.01.058

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Krivova NA, Solanki SK, Unruh YC (2011) Towards a long-term record of solar total and spectral irradiant. J Atmos Sol Terr Phy 73:223–234. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.11.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Kucharski F, Kang IS, Farneti R, Feudale L (2011) Tropical Pacific response to 20th century Atlantic warming. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2010GL046248

    Google Scholar 

  45. Kucharski F, Ikram F, Molteni F, Farneti R, Kang IS, No HH, King MP, Giuliani G, Mogensen K (2015) Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability. Clim Dyn 46(7):2337–2351. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2705-z

    Google Scholar 

  46. Kugiumtzis D (2000) Surrogate data test on time series. In: Soofi A, Cao L (eds) Modeling and forecasting financial data. Springer, New York, pp 267–282

    Google Scholar 

  47. Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science 314:115–119. doi:10.1126/science.1131152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Lapp SL, Jacques SJM, Elaine BM, David SJ (2012) GCM projections for the Pacific decadal oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century. Int J Climatol 32(9):1423–1442. doi:10.1002/joc.2364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Lean J, Beer J, Bradley R (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 22(23):3195–3198. doi:10.1029/95GL03093

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Liu W, Huang B, Thorne PW, Banzon VF, Zhang HM, Freeman E, Lawrimore J, Peterson TC, Smith TM, Woodruff SD (2014) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): part II. parametric and structural uncertainty estimations. J Clim 28:931–951. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00007.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Lockwood M (2010) Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum. Proc R Soc A Math Phys 466:303–329. doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. MacDonald GM, Case RA (2005) Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2005GL022478

    Google Scholar 

  53. Maher N, McGregor S, England MH, Sen Gupta A (2015) Effects of volcanism on tropical variability. Geophys Res Lett 42:6024–6033. doi:10.1002/2015GL064751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Malik A, Brönnimann S, Stickler A, Raible CC, Muthers S, Anet J, Rozanov E, Schmutz W (2017) Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3529-9

    Google Scholar 

  55. Mann ME, Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Clement A (2005) Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years. J Clim 18:447–456. doi:10.1175/JCLI-3276.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell D, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly. Science 326:1256–1260. doi:10.1126/science.1177303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Ocenogr 58(1):35–44. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Marinho EBS, Sousa AMYR, Andrade RFS (2013) Using detrended cross correlation analysis in geophysical data. Phys A 392:2195–2201. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2012.12.038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 101:4136–4141. doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. McGregor S, Timmermann A (2011) The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO. J Clim 24(8):2178–2191. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3990.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. McGregor S, Timmermann A, Stuecker MF, England MH, Merrifield M, Jin FF, Chikamoto Y (2014) Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nature. Clim Change 4:888–892. doi:10.1038/nclimate2330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Matthes K, Sassi F, Loon HV (2009) Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing. Science. doi:10.1126/science.1172872

    Google Scholar 

  64. Mehta VM, Lau WKM (1997) Influence of solar irradiance on the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship at decadal-multidecadal time scales. Geophys Res Lett 24(2):159–162. doi:10.1029/96GL03778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Mo KC, Schemm JE (2008) Relationships between ENSO and drought over the southeastern United States. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2008GL0346

    Google Scholar 

  66. Muthers S, Anet JG, Stenke A, Raible C, Rozanov E, Brönnimann S, Peter T, Arfeuille FX, Shapiro AI, Beer J, Steinhilber F, Brugnara Yuri, Schmutz W (2014) The coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM. Geosci Model Dev 7(5):2157–2179. doi:10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  67. Muthers S, Raible CC, Rozanov E, Stocker TF (2016) Response of the AMOC to reduced solar radiation—the modulating role of atmospheric chemistry. Earth Syst Dyn 7:877–892. doi:10.5194/esd-7-877-2016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Narashima R, Bhattacharyya S (2010) A wavelet cross-spectral analysis of solar-ENSO rainfall connections in the Indian monsoons. Appl Comput Harmon Anal 28:285–295. doi:10.1016/j.acha.2010.02.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Newman M (2007) Interannual to decadal predictability of tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures. J Clim 20:2333–2356. doi:10.1175/JCLI4165.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Newman M, Compo GP, Alexander MA (2003) ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J Clim 16(23):3853–3857. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Newman M, Alexander MA, Ault TR, Cobb KM, Deser C, Di Lorenzo E, Mantua NJ, Miller AJ, Minobeh S, Nakamura H, Schneider N, Vimont DJ, Phillips AS, Scott JD, Smith CA (2016) The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. J Clim 29:4399–4427. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Ohba M, Shiogama H, Yokohata T, Watanabe M (2013) Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions on ENSO simulated in a coupled GCM. J Clim 26:5169–5182. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Otterå OH, Bentsen M, Drange H, Suo L (2010) External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nat Geosci 3:688–694. doi:10.1038/ngeo955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Pausata FSR, Chafik L, Caballero R, Battistid DS (2015) Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(45):13784–13788. doi:10.1073/pnas.1509153112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Piao L, Fu Z, Yuan N (2016) “Intrinsic” correlations and their temporal evolutions between winter-time PNA/EPW and winter drought in the west United States. Sci Rep. doi:10.1038/srep19958

    Google Scholar 

  76. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Latif M (2000) Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and mid-latitudes on decadal timescales. J Clim 13:1173–1194. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1173:CBTPOT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Podobnik B, Stanley HE (2008) Detrended cross correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two non-stationary time series. Phys Rev Lett. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.100.084102

    Google Scholar 

  78. Ramaswamy V, Boucher O, Haigh J, Hauglustaine D, Haywood J, Myhre G, Nakajima T, Shi GY, Solomon S (2001) Radiative forcing of climate change. In: Houghton J, Ding Y, Griggs D et al (eds) IPCC third assessment report: climate change 2001. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 350–416

    Google Scholar 

  79. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Google Scholar 

  80. Reichler T, Kim J, Manzini E, Kröger J (2012) A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability. Nat Geosci 5:783787. doi:10.1038/ngeo1586

    Article  Google Scholar 

  81. Schneider N, Cornuelle BD (2005) The forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J Clim 18:4355–4373. doi:10.1175/JCLI3527.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Shapiro AI, Schmutz W, Rozanov E, Schoell M, Haberreiter M, Shapiro AV, Nyeki S (2011) A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astron Astrophys. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201016173

    Google Scholar 

  83. Shen C, Wang WC, Gong W, Hao Z (2006) A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2005GL024804

    Google Scholar 

  84. Steinhilber F, Beer J (2013) Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years. J Geophys Res 118(5):1861–1867. doi:10.1002/jgra.50210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. Stenchikov G, Delworth TL, Ramaswamy V, Stouffer RJ, Wittenberg A, Zeng F (2009) Volcanic signals in oceans. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2008JD011673

    Google Scholar 

  86. Sutton R, Hodson DLR (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 20:891–907. doi:10.1175/JCLI4038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. Swingedouw D, Ortega P, Mignot J, Guilyardi E, Masson-Delmotte V, Butler PG, Khodri M, Séférian R (2014) Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions. Nat Commun. doi:10.1038/ncomms7545

    Google Scholar 

  88. Timmermann A, An SI, Krebs U, Goosse H (2005) ENSO suppression due to weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 18:3122–3139. doi:10.1175/JCLI3495.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  89. Timmermann A, Okumura Y, An SI, Clement A, Dong B, Guilyardi E, Hu A, Jungclaus JH, Renold M, Stocker TF, Stouffe RJ, Sutton R, Xie SP, Yin J (2007) The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO. J Clim 20:4899–4919. doi:10.1175/JCLI4283.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  90. Vassoler RT, Zebende GF (2012) DCCA cross-correlation coefficient apply in time series of air temperature and air relative humidity. Phys A 391:2438–2443. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. Vimont DJ, Battisti DS, Hirst AC (2001) Footprinting: a seasonal connection between the tropics and midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett 28:3923–3926. doi:10.1029/2001GL013435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. Vimont DJ, Battisti DS, Hirst AC (2003a) The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the CSIRO general circulation models. J Clim 16:2653–2667. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2653:TSFMIT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  93. Vimont DJ, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (2003b) The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: implications for ENSO. J Clim 16:2668–2675. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  94. Visbeck M, Chassignet EP, Curry RG, Delworth TL, Dickson RR, Krahmann G (2003) The ocean's response to North Atlantic oscillation variability. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) The North Atlantic Oscillation: climatic significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC

  95. Wei W, Lohmann G (2012) Simulated Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation during the. Holocene J Clim 25:6989–7002. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00667.1

    Google Scholar 

  96. Wu S, Liu Z, Zhang R (2011) On the observed relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 67:27–35. doi:10.1007/s10872-011-0003-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  97. Yeh SW, Kirtman BP (2003) On the relationship between the interannual and decadal SST variability in the north Pacific and tropical Pacific Ocean. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2002JD002817

    Google Scholar 

  98. Yuan N, Fu Z, Zhang H, Piao L, Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J (2015) Detrended partial-cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing correlations in complex system. Sci Rep. doi:10.1038/srep08143

    Google Scholar 

  99. Zanchettin D, Timmreck C, Graf HF, Rubino A, Lorenz S, Lohmann K, Krüger K, Jungclaus JH (2012) Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Clim Dyn 39(1–2):419–444. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  100. Zebende G (2011) DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: quantifying level of cross-correlation. Phys A 390:614–618. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.10.022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  101. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. GeophysRes Lett. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267

    Google Scholar 

  102. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2007) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on north Pacific climate variability. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2007GL031601

    Google Scholar 

  103. Zhang L, Wang C (2013) Multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations. J Geophys Res Oceans 118:5772–5791. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  104. Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Iwasaka N (1996) Is climate variability over the north Pacific a linear response to ENSO? J Clim 9:1468–1478

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge support from the Federal Commission for Scholarships for Foreign Students for the Swiss Government Excellence Scholarship (ESKAS no. 2013.0516) for the academic year(s) 2013-16/17, SNF project FUPSOL2 (CRSII2-147659), and the EC FP7 project ERA-CLIM2: 607029. We are grateful to NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/) for providing ERSST dataset. Paolo Perona wishes to thank the Climatology Research Group at the Institute of Geography of the University of Bern for hosting him as academic guest in the Fall 2015.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abdul Malik.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Malik, A., Brönnimann, S. & Perona, P. Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability. Clim Dyn 50, 3649–3670 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3832-5

Download citation

Keywords

  • Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation
  • Pacific decadal oscillation
  • El Niño southern oscillation
  • Solar activity
  • Volcanic eruptions
  • De-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis