Climate Dynamics

, Volume 50, Issue 5–6, pp 1581–1596 | Cite as

Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

  • Molulaqhooa L. Maoyi
  • Babatunde J. AbiodunEmail author
  • Joseph M. Prusa
  • Jennifer J. Veitch


Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999–2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.



The project was supported with grants and bursaries from National Research Foundation (NRF, South Africa), Water Research Commission (WRC, South Africa), and the Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) project. Computing facility was provided by Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC, South Africa). We thank the two anonymous reviewers, whose comments have helped in improving the quality of the manuscript.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Molulaqhooa L. Maoyi
    • 1
  • Babatunde J. Abiodun
    • 1
    Email author
  • Joseph M. Prusa
    • 2
  • Jennifer J. Veitch
    • 3
    • 4
  1. 1.Climate System and Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical ScienceUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
  2. 2.Teraflux CorporationBoca RatonUSA
  3. 3.Department of OceanographyUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
  4. 4.South African Environmental Observation Network, Egagasini NodeCape TownSouth Africa

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