Probabilistic projections of regional climatic changes over the Great Lakes Basin
- 514 Downloads
As the largest surface fresh water system on earth, the Great Lakes is facing the threat of climate change. Understanding how the hydrologic cycle in the Great Lakes region would be affected by human-induced global warming is important for developing informed adaptation strategies. In this study, high-resolution regional climate ensemble simulations based upon the PRECIS modeling system are conducted to project future climatic changes over the Great Lakes Basin. The results show that the Great Lakes Basin is very likely to experience a continuous warming-up throughout the 21st century. Particularly, mean air temperatures will rise by 2.6 °C in the forthcoming decades (i.e., 2030s), 3.8 °C in the middle of the century (i.e., 2050s), and 5.6 °C to the end of the century (i.e., 2080s), respectively. The warming air temperatures are very likely to result in more precipitation over the entire basin. The annual total precipitation over the Great Lakes Basin is projected to increase by 8.9% in the 2030s and 12.2% in the 2050s, while the magnitude of precipitation increase would decline to 7.1% in the 2080s. The slow-down of the precipitation increase from the 2050s to the 2080s indicates a shift from the aggressive increase of precipitation before and in the middle of this century to the eventual decrease by the end of this century, suggesting that a nonlinear response relationship between precipitation and temperature may exist in the Great Lakes Basin and such a relationship is also likely to vary in response to global warming.
KeywordsGlobal warming Regional climate change Ensemble simulation Precipitation increase The Great Lakes Basin
This research was supported by the Natural Sciences Foundation (51190095, 51225904), the Program for Innovative Research Team in University (IRT1127), the 111 Project (B14008), the National Basic Research Program (2013CB430401), and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
- ECCC (2013) Great Lakes quickfacts. Environ Clim Change Can. https://www.ec.gc.ca/grandslacs-greatlakes/default.asp?lang=En&n=B4E65F6F-1
- Glantz MH (2005) Climate variability, climate change and fisheries. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report, summary for policymakers. Intergov Panel Clim Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
- Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Handbook, ExeterGoogle Scholar
- Kling GW, Hayhoe K, Johnson LB, Magnuson JJ, Polasky S, Robinson SK, Shuter BJ, Wander MM, Wuebbles DJ, Zak DR, Lindroth RL, Moser SC, Wilson ML (2003) Confronting climate change in the Great Lakes region: impacts on our communities and ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Li W, Zhang HT, Zhu Y, Liang ZW, He B, Hashmi MZ, Chen ZL, Wang YS (2015a) Spatiotemporal classification analysis of long-term environmental monitoring data in the northern part of Lake Taihu, China by using a self-organizing map. J Environ Inform 26(1):71–79Google Scholar
- Li Z, Huang GH, Fan YR, Xu JL (2015b) Hydrologic risk analysis for nonstationary stream flow records under uncertainty. J Environ Inform 26(1):41–51Google Scholar
- McSweeney C, Jones R (2010) Selecting members of the ‘QUMP’perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, p 9Google Scholar
- Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Booth BBB, Brown CC, Clark RT, Collins M, Harris GR, Kendon EJ, Betts RA, Brown SJ, Humphrey KA, McCarthy MP, McDonald RE, Stephens A, Wallace C, Warren R, Wilby R, Wood RA (2009) UK climate projections science report: climate change projections. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, ExeterGoogle Scholar
- Wang P, Cao M, Ao Y, Wang C, Hou J, Qian J (2011b) Investigation on Ce-doped TiO2-coated BDD composite electrode with high photoelectrocatalytic activity under visible light irradiation. Electrochem Comm 13:1423–1426Google Scholar
- Wilcox DA, Thompson TA, Booth RK, Nicholas J (2007) Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes. US Geological Survey Circular 1311Google Scholar