Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 49, Issue 7–8, pp 2237–2247 | Cite as

Probabilistic projections of regional climatic changes over the Great Lakes Basin

  • Xiuquan Wang
  • Guohe Huang
  • Brian W. Baetz
  • Shan Zhao
Article

Abstract

As the largest surface fresh water system on earth, the Great Lakes is facing the threat of climate change. Understanding how the hydrologic cycle in the Great Lakes region would be affected by human-induced global warming is important for developing informed adaptation strategies. In this study, high-resolution regional climate ensemble simulations based upon the PRECIS modeling system are conducted to project future climatic changes over the Great Lakes Basin. The results show that the Great Lakes Basin is very likely to experience a continuous warming-up throughout the 21st century. Particularly, mean air temperatures will rise by 2.6 °C in the forthcoming decades (i.e., 2030s), 3.8 °C in the middle of the century (i.e., 2050s), and 5.6 °C to the end of the century (i.e., 2080s), respectively. The warming air temperatures are very likely to result in more precipitation over the entire basin. The annual total precipitation over the Great Lakes Basin is projected to increase by 8.9% in the 2030s and 12.2% in the 2050s, while the magnitude of precipitation increase would decline to 7.1% in the 2080s. The slow-down of the precipitation increase from the 2050s to the 2080s indicates a shift from the aggressive increase of precipitation before and in the middle of this century to the eventual decrease by the end of this century, suggesting that a nonlinear response relationship between precipitation and temperature may exist in the Great Lakes Basin and such a relationship is also likely to vary in response to global warming.

Keywords

Global warming Regional climate change Ensemble simulation Precipitation increase The Great Lakes Basin 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Natural Sciences Foundation (51190095, 51225904), the Program for Innovative Research Team in University (IRT1127), the 111 Project (B14008), the National Basic Research Program (2013CB430401), and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

References

  1. Abdel-Fattah S, Krantzberg G (2014) Commentary: climate change adaptive management in the Great Lakes. J Gt Lakes Res 40(3):578–580CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ahmadi A, Moridi A, Han D (2015) Uncertainty assessment in environmental risk through Bayesian networks. J Environ Inform 25(1):46–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Angel JR, Kunkel KE (2010) The response of Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron. J Gt Lakes Res 36:51–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Assel R, Cronk K, Norton D (2003) Recent trends in Laurentian Great Lakes ice cover. Clim Change 57(1–2):185–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Austin JA, Colman SM (2007) Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: a positive ice‐albedo feedback. Geophys Res Lett 34(6):L06604CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Austin J, Colman S (2008) A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior. Limnol Oceanogr 53(6):2724–2730CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bates GT, Giorgi F, Hostetler SW (1993) Toward the simulation of the effects of the Great Lakes on regional climate. Mon Weather Rev 121(5):1373–1387CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Collins M, Booth BB, Harris GR, Murphy JM, Sexton DM, Webb MJ (2006) Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change. Clim Dyn 27(2–3):127–147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Danz NP, Niemi GJ, Regal RR, Hollenhorst T, Johnson LB, Hanowski JM, Axler RP, Ciborowski JJ, Hrabik T, Brady VJ (2007) Integrated measures of anthropogenic stress in the US Great Lakes basin. Environ Manage 39(5):631–647CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. ECCC (2013) Great Lakes quickfacts. Environ Clim Change Can. https://www.ec.gc.ca/grandslacs-greatlakes/default.asp?lang=En&n=B4E65F6F-1
  11. Ghanbari RN, Bravo HR (2008) Coherence between atmospheric teleconnections, Great Lakes water levels, and regional climate. Adv Water Resour 31(10):1284–1298CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Glantz MH (2005) Climate variability, climate change and fisheries. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  13. Gronewold AD, Fortin V, Lofgren B, Clites A, Stow CA, Quinn F (2013) Coasts, water levels, and climate change: a Great Lakes perspective. Clim Change 120(4):697–711CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gula J, Peltier WR (2012) Dynamical downscaling over the Great Lakes basin of North America using the WRF regional climate model: the impact of the Great Lakes system on regional greenhouse warming. J Clim 25(21):7723–7742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hayhoe K, VanDorn J, Croley T, Schlegal N, Wuebbles D (2010) Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. J Gt Lakes Res 36:7–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25(15):1965–1978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hofmann H, Lorke A, Peeters F (2008) Temporal scales of water-level fluctuations in lakes and their ecological implications. Springer, BerlinCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report, summary for policymakers. Intergov Panel Clim Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
  19. Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Handbook, ExeterGoogle Scholar
  20. Jones ML, Shuter BJ, Zhao Y, Stockwell JD (2006) Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 63(2):457–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kling GW, Hayhoe K, Johnson LB, Magnuson JJ, Polasky S, Robinson SK, Shuter BJ, Wander MM, Wuebbles DJ, Zak DR, Lindroth RL, Moser SC, Wilson ML (2003) Confronting climate change in the Great Lakes region: impacts on our communities and ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  22. Li W, Zhang HT, Zhu Y, Liang ZW, He B, Hashmi MZ, Chen ZL, Wang YS (2015a) Spatiotemporal classification analysis of long-term environmental monitoring data in the northern part of Lake Taihu, China by using a self-organizing map. J Environ Inform 26(1):71–79Google Scholar
  23. Li Z, Huang GH, Fan YR, Xu JL (2015b) Hydrologic risk analysis for nonstationary stream flow records under uncertainty. J Environ Inform 26(1):41–51Google Scholar
  24. Mao D, Cherkauer KA (2009) Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region. J Hydrol 374(1):71–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. McSweeney C, Jones R (2010) Selecting members of the ‘QUMP’perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, p 9Google Scholar
  26. McSweeney CF, Jones RG, Booth BB (2012) Selecting ensemble members to provide regional climate change information. J Clim 25(20):7100–7121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Booth BBB, Brown CC, Clark RT, Collins M, Harris GR, Kendon EJ, Betts RA, Brown SJ, Humphrey KA, McCarthy MP, McDonald RE, Stephens A, Wallace C, Warren R, Wilby R, Wood RA (2009) UK climate projections science report: climate change projections. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, ExeterGoogle Scholar
  28. Myers P, Lundrigan BL, Hoffman SM, Haraminac AP, Seto SH (2009) Climate-induced changes in the small mammal communities of the Northern Great Lakes Region. Glob Change Biol 15(6):1434–1454CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Notaro M, Bennington V, Vavrus S (2015) Dynamically downscaled projections of lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes Basin*,+. J Clim 28(4):1661–1684CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rahel FJ, Olden JD (2008) Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species. Conserv Biol 22(3):521–533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Rahmani MA, Zarghami M (2015) The use of statistical weather generator, hybrid data driven and system dynamics models for water resources management under climate change. J Environ Inform 25(1):23–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Sellinger CE, Stow CA, Lamon EC, Qian SS (2007) Recent water level declines in the Lake Michigan—Huron System. Environ Sci Technol 42(2):367–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Sharma S, Jackson DA, Minns CK, Shuter BJ (2007) Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change? Glob Change Biol 13(10):2052–2064CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Steinman AD, Ogdahl ME, Weinert M, Thompson K, Cooper MJ, Uzarski DG (2012) Water level fluctuation and sediment–water nutrient exchange in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. J Gt Lakes Res 38(4):766–775CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Trumpickas J, Shuter BJ, Minns CK (2009) Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures. J Gt Lakes Res 35(3):454–463CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Wang J, Bai X, Hu H, Clites A, Colton M, Lofgren B (2012) Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover, 1973–2010*. J Clim 25(4):1318–1329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Wang C, Lu G, Wang P, Wu H, Qi P, Liang Y (2011a) Assessment of environmental pollution of Taihu Lake by combining active biomonitoring and integrated biomarker response. Environ Sci Technol 45(8):3746–3752CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Wang P, Cao M, Ao Y, Wang C, Hou J, Qian J (2011b) Investigation on Ce-doped TiO2-coated BDD composite electrode with high photoelectrocatalytic activity under visible light irradiation. Electrochem Comm 13:1423–1426Google Scholar
  39. Wang X, Huang G, Lin Q, Nie X, Cheng G, Fan Y, Li Z, Yao Y, Suo M (2013) A stepwise cluster analysis approach for downscaled climate projection–a Canadian case study. Environ Model Softw 49:141–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Wang X, Huang G, Lin Q, Liu J (2014a) High-resolution probabilistic projections of temperature changes over Ontario, Canada. J Clim 27(14):5259–5284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wang X, Huang G, Liu J (2014b) Projected increases in intensity and frequency of rainfall extremes through a regional climate modeling approach. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(23):13271–13286CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wang X, Huang G, Lin Q, Nie X, Liu J (2015a) High-resolution temperature and precipitation projections over Ontario, Canada: a coupled dynamical-statistical approach. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141(689):1137–1146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang X, Huang G, Liu J, Li Z, Zhao S (2015b) Ensemble projections of regional climatic changes over Ontario, Canada. J Clim 28(18):7327–7346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wilcox DA, Thompson TA, Booth RK, Nicholas J (2007) Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes. US Geological Survey Circular 1311Google Scholar
  45. Xia XH, Wu Q, Mou XL, Lai YJ (2015) Potential impacts of climate change on the water quality of different water bodies. J Environ Inform 25(2):85–98CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xiuquan Wang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Guohe Huang
    • 1
  • Brian W. Baetz
    • 3
  • Shan Zhao
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable CommunitiesUniversity of ReginaReginaCanada
  2. 2.Faculty of EngineeringDalhousie UniversityHalifaxCanada
  3. 3.Faculty of EngineeringMcMaster UniversityHamiltonCanada

Personalised recommendations