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Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation

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Abstract

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is observed to be stronger during the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) than during the westerly phase, with the QBO zonal wind at 50 hPa leading enhanced MJO activity by about 1 month. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from the POAMA coupled model forecast system, we show that this strengthened MJO activity during the easterly QBO phase translates to improved prediction of the MJO and its convective anomalies across the tropical Indo-Pacific region by about 8 days lead time relative to that during westerly QBO phases. These improvements in forecast skill result not just from the fact that forecasts initialized with stronger MJO events, such as occurs during QBO easterly phases, have greater skill, but also from the more persistent behaviour of the MJO for a similar initial amplitude during QBO easterly phases as compared to QBO westerly phases. The QBO is thus an untapped source of subseasonal predictability that can provide a window of opportunity for improved prediction of global climate.

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Notes

  1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml.

  2. E.g. http://iri.columbia.edu/docs/CSP/CSP3_Final.pdf.

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Acknowledgments

All data for this paper is properly cited and referred to in the reference list. We thank James Risbey and Hanh Nguyen for reviewing earlier versions of this manuscript. SWS and YL’s works were funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-2094 and 2015-2100.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Andrew G. Marshall

  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Harry H. Hendon

  3. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwanoha, Japan

    Harry H. Hendon

  4. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

    Seok-Woo Son & Yuna Lim

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  1. Andrew G. Marshall
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Correspondence to Andrew G. Marshall.

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Marshall, A.G., Hendon, H.H., Son, SW. et al. Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Clim Dyn 49, 1365–1377 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3392-0

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