Abstract
The head Bay region bordering the northern Bay of Bengal is a densely populated area with a complex geomorphologic setting, and highly vulnerable to extreme water levels along with other factors like sea level rise and impact of tropical cyclones. The influence of climate change on wind–wave regime from this region of Bay of Bengal is not known well and that requires special attention, and there is a need to perform its long-term assessment for societal benefits. This study provides a comprehensive analysis on the temporal variability in domain averaged wind speed, significant wave height (SWH) utilizing satellite altimeter data (1992–2012) and mean wave period using ECMWF reanalysis products ERA-Interim (1992–2012) and ERA-20C (1992–2010) over this region. The SWH derived from WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model along with the ERA-Interim reanalysis supplements the observed variability in satellite altimeter observations. Further, the study performs an extensive error estimation of SWH and mean wave period with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas that shows a high degree of under-estimation in the wave atlas mean wave period. Annual mean and wind speed maxima from altimeter show an increasing trend, and to a lesser extent in the SWH. Interestingly, the estimated trend is higher for maxima compared to the mean conditions. Analysis of decadal variability exhibits an increased frequency of higher waves in the present decade compared to the past. Linear trend analysis show significant upswing in spatially averaged ERA-20C mean wave period, whereas the noticed variations are marginal in the ERA-Interim data. A separate trend analysis for the wind-seas, swell wave heights and period from ERA-20C decipher the fact that distant swells governs the local wind–wave climatology over the head Bay region, and over time the swell activity have increased in this region.
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Acknowledgments
The authors sincerely thank the Ministry of Human Resources Development (MHRD), Government of India for the financial support. This study is conducted as a part of the Mega Project “Future of Cities” under the module ‘Effect of Climate change on local sea level rise and its impact on coastal areas: Kolkata region as a pilot study’ supported by MHRD at IIT Kharagpur. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical comments and suggestion that improved the overall scientific quality of this article. The authors are also thankful to Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Hyderabad for providing the wave rider buoy data and National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai for providing the wave atlas data.
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Figure S1
Trends in ERA-20C wind speed (m/s) (JPEG 107 kb)
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Patra, A., Bhaskaran, P.K. Temporal variability in wind–wave climate and its validation with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas for the head Bay of Bengal. Clim Dyn 49, 1271–1288 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3385-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3385-z