Recent modeling studies have consistently shown that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will decrease but that of very intense tropical cyclones may increase in the future warmer climate. It has been noted, however, that the uncertainty in the projected changes in the frequency of very intense tropical cyclones, particularly the changes in the regional frequency, is very large. Here we present a projection of the changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones estimated by a statistical downscaling of ensemble of many high-resolution global model experiments. The results indicate that the changes in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones are not uniform on the globe. The frequency will increase in most regions but decrease in the south western part of Northwest Pacific, the South Pacific, and eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.
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This work was conducted under the framework of the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI program) and Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the twenty first Century (KAKUSHIN Program) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. Calculations were performed on the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC.
An erratum to this article is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3612-2.
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Sugi, M., Murakami, H. & Yoshida, K. Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones. Clim Dyn 49, 619–632 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3361-7
- Intense tropical cyclones
- Climate change
- Ensemble high-resolution global models
- Statistical downscaling
- Intensity bias correction