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Relationship between eastern tropical Pacific cooling and recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation

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Abstract

During 1979–2014, eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures significantly cooled, which has generally been attributed to the transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to its negative phase after 1999. We find the eastern tropical Pacific cooling to be associated with: (1) an intensified Walker Circulation during austral summer (December–February, DJF) and autumn (March–May, MAM); (2) a weakened South Pacific Hadley cell and subtropical jet during MAM; and (3) a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies between 50 and 60°S during DJF and MAM. Observed cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific is linearly congruent with 60–80 % of the observed Southern Hemisphere positive zonal-mean zonal wind trend between 50 and 60°S during DJF (~35 % of the interannual variability), and around half of the observed positive zonal-mean zonal wind trend during MAM (~15 % of the interannual variability). Although previous studies have linked the strengthened DJF and MAM circumpolar westerlies to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gases, we note that the continuation of the positive SAM trends into the twenty-first century is partially associated with eastern tropical Pacific cooling, especially during MAM when zonal wind anomalies associated with eastern tropical Pacific cooling project strongly onto the observed trends. Outside of DJF and MAM, eastern tropical Pacific cooling is associated with opposing zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific and Indian sectors, which we infer is the reason for the absence of significant positive SAM trends outside of DJF and MAM despite significant eastern tropical Pacific cooling seen during all seasons.

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Acknowledgments

Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their comments that helped us improve our main points. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is acknowledged for providing ERA-Interim data, which was accessed freely online at http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim_full_moda). The Met Office Hadley Centre is acknowledged for providing SST data, also accessed freely online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). KRC is supported by a Victoria University Doctoral Scholarship.

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  1. School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Cotton Building, Room 311, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand

    Kyle R. Clem, James A. Renwick & James McGregor

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  1. Kyle R. Clem
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  2. James A. Renwick
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  3. James McGregor
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Correspondence to Kyle R. Clem.

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Clem, K.R., Renwick, J.A. & McGregor, J. Relationship between eastern tropical Pacific cooling and recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation. Clim Dyn 49, 113–129 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3329-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3329-7

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