Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Anomalous convective activity over sub-tropical east Pacific during 2015 and associated boreal summer monsoon teleconnections

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The eastern Pacific Ocean received a record highest number of sub-tropical convective activities during boreal summer (June–September) of 2015, since last four decades. The associated rainfall distribution was also atypical with anomalously enhanced rainfall extending from equator to sub-tropical central-eastern Pacific. The present analysis reveals a pronounced meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across central-eastern Pacific, with the mean SST exceeding 28 °C over sub-tropical north Pacific, setting up favorable conditions for these enhanced convective activities. It is found that these anomalous features promoted northward spanning of westerly anomalies and drastically modified the east–west circulation over sub-tropical north Pacific. This seems to induce large-scale subsidence over the off-equatorial monsoon regions of south and south-east Asia, thus constituting an east–west asymmetry over sub-tropical Indo-Pacific region. Based on our observational study, it can be concluded that the sub-tropical convective activities over east Pacific may play a pivotal role in mediating the Pacific-monsoon teleconnection through the unexplored meridional SST gradient across Pacific.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El-Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnections. J Geophys Res 112:C11007. doi:10.1029/2006JC003798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Sabin TP, Swapna P, Murtugudde RG (2012) Is a global warming signature emerging in the tropical Pacific? Geophys Res Lett 39:L02701. doi:10.1029/2011GL050232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang HR, Webster PJ (1990) Energy accumulation and emanation at low latitudes. Part II: nonlinear response to strong episodic forcing. J Atmos Sci 47:2624–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen G, Tam CY (2010) Different impact of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37:L01803. doi:10.1029/2009GL041708

    Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Wallace JM (1990) Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific. J Clim 3:1254–1281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J, Webster PJ (2002) Hydrological signatures relating the Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. J Clim 15:3082–3095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462. doi:10.1002/qj.49710644905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamza V, Singh BB, Sooraj KP, Joshi MK, Preethi B, Mujumdar M, Rajeevan M (2015) Chapter 1-large scale features of southwest monsoon during 2015. In: Mujumdar M, Gnanaseelan C, Rajeevan M (eds) Research report: the 2015 southwest monsoon RR-185, IITM, pp 2–13. http://www.tropmet.res.in/~lip/Publication/RR-pdf/RR-185.pdf

  • Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2009GL040000

    Google Scholar 

  • Jadhav J, Swapna P, Marathe S, Ashok K (2015) On the possible cause of distinct El Niño types in the recent decades. Sci Rep 5:17009. doi:10.1038/srep17009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph PV, Sabin TP (2008) An ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism for the active break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 30:553–566. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0305-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph PV, Srinivasan J (1999) Rossby waves in May and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Tellus A 51:854–864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ju J, Slingo JM (1995) The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 121:1133–1168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Krishnamurti TN (1978) Northern summer tropical circulations during drought and normal rainfall months. Mon Weather Rev 106:331–347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keshavamurty RN (1982) Response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and the teleconnections of the southern oscillation. J Atmos Sci 39:1241–1259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Goswami BN (2000) Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. J Clim 13:579–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Mujumdar M (1999) Remotely and regionally forced pre-monsoon signals over northern India and neighbourhood. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:55–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Venkatesan C, Keshavamurti RN (1998) Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: a GCM study. Proc Indian Acad Sci (Earth Planet Sci) 107:65–90

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar V, Krishnan R (2005) On the association between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone activity over the Northwest Pacific. Curr Sci 88:602–612

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284(5423):2156–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Lim H (1984) On the dynamics of equatorial forcing of climate teleconnections. J Atmos Sci 41:161–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Clim 13:4287–4309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau NG, Wang B (2006) Interaction between the Asian monsoon and El Niño/southern oscillation. In: wang B (ed) The Asian monsoon. Praxis, New York, pp 479–512

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Wang B (2005) A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: Synoptic-to-inter annual variabilities. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 16:285–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen RS, Nigam S (1987) On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2418–2436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall AG, Hendon HH, Wang G (2016) On the role of anomalous ocean surface temperatures for promoting the record Madden-Julian oscillation in March 2015. Geophys Res Lett 43:472–481. doi:10.1002/2015GL066984

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 44:25–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mujumdar M, Kumar V, Krishnan R (2007) The Indian summer monsoon drought of 2002 and its linkage with tropical convective activity over northwest Pacific. Clim Dyn 28(7–8):743–758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mujumdar M, Preethi B, Sabin TP, Ashok K, Saeed S, Pai DS, Krishnan R (2012) The Asian summer monsoon response to the La Nina event of 2010. Meteorol Appl 19:216–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noreen EW (1989) Computer-intensive methods for testing hypotheses: an introduction. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Pant GB, Parthasarathy B (1981) Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon. Arch Meteorol, Geophys Bioklimatol, Ser B 29:245–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pradhan PK, Preethi B, Ashok K, Krishnan R, Sahai AK (2011) Modoki, Indian Ocean dipole, and western North Pacific typhoons: possible implications for extreme events. J Geophys Res 116:D18108. doi:10.1029/2011JD015666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasmussen EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Weather Rev 111:517–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ratnam JV, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2010) Pacific Ocean origin for the 2009 Indian summer monsoon failure. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2010GL042798

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14(15):3192–3211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarkar S, Singh RP, Kafatos M (2004) Further evidences for the weakening relationship of Indian rainfall and ENSO over India. Geophys Res Lett 31:L13209. doi:10.1029/2004GL020259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shankar D, Shetye SR, Joseph PV (2007) Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal. J Earth Syst Sci 116:385–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J, Paolino DA (1983) The Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 111:1830–1837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sikka DR (1980) Some aspects of the large-scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. Proc Indian Acad Sci-Earth Planet Sci 89:179–195

    Google Scholar 

  • Sikka DR (1999) Monsoon drought in India. Joint COLA/CARE tech rep no. 2: Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies and Center for the Application of Research on the Environment, p 93

  • Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) 1997: the El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128(6):1778–1797

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Dominiak S (2005) Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation: a new perspective. J Clim 18:1351–1368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Delecluse P, Labattu S, Terray L (2003) Sea surface temperature associations with the late Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 21:593–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Dominiak S, Delecluse P (2005) Role of the southern Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Clim Dyn 24:169–195. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Masson S, Prodhomme C, Roxy MK, Sooraj KP (2016) Impacts of Indian and Atlantic Oceans on ENSO in a comprehensive modeling framework. Clim Dyn 46:2507–2533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein T, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Troup AJ (1965) The ‘southern oscillation’. Q J R Meteorol Soc 91(390):490–506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi GA, Harrison DE (2002) Monsoon breaks and sub seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J Clim 15:1485–1493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker GT (1910) On the Meteorological evidence for supposed changes of climate in India. Mem India Meteorol Dep 21:1–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker GT (1914) The liability to drought in India as compared with that in other countries. Mem India Meteorol Dep 21:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker GT (1918) Correlation in seasonal variation of weather. Q J R Meteorol Soc 44:223–224

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai MU, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res Oceans 103(C7):14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Moore AM, Loschnigg JP, Leben RR (1999) The great Indian Ocean warming of 1997–1998: evidence of coupled-atmospheric instabilities. Nature 401:356–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng H, Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Yamagata T (2007) Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. Clim Dyn 29:113–129. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0234-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie S-P, Saiki N (1999) Abrupt onset and slow seasonal evolution of summer monsoon in an idealized GCM simulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:949–968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Kug JS, Dewitte B, Kwon MH, Kirtman BP, Jin FF (2009) El-Niño in a changing climate. Nature 461:511–514. doi:10.1038/nature08316

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for the constructive comments. The authors acknowledge discussions with Dr. Harry Hendon, BOM, Melbourne, Australia. Dr. P. Terray is also acknowledged for his code on testing statistical significance and valuable suggestions. The CCCR, IITM is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, 411008, India

    Milind Mujumdar, K. P. Sooraj, R. Krishnan, B. Preethi, Manish K. Joshi, Hamza Varikoden & Bhupendra B. Singh

  2. Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), New Delhi, 110003, India

    M. Rajeevan

Authors
  1. Milind Mujumdar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. K. P. Sooraj
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Krishnan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. B. Preethi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Manish K. Joshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Hamza Varikoden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Bhupendra B. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. M. Rajeevan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Milind Mujumdar.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOC 530 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mujumdar, M., Sooraj, K.P., Krishnan, R. et al. Anomalous convective activity over sub-tropical east Pacific during 2015 and associated boreal summer monsoon teleconnections. Clim Dyn 48, 4081–4091 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3321-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3321-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation