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Unusual growth in intense typhoon occurrences over the Philippine Sea in September after the mid-2000s

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Abstract

During the global warming hiatus period (1998–present), a pronounced increase in the number of intense typhoon occurrences was identified over the Philippine Sea (PS: 5°–25°N, 125°–140°E) in September after the mid-2000s. Comparing two periods before and after the mid-2000s indicates that intense typhoons rarely occurred over the PS in September before the mid-2000s, with a frequency of fewer than 0.4 per year, but reached up to nearly 1.5 per year after the mid-2000s. The abrupt increase in intense typhoon occurrences over the PS was primarily attributed to increased tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and favorable large-scale conditions for TC intensification. The increase in TC genesis number over the PS was caused by contributory dynamical conditions, including positive low-level relative vorticity anomalies and anomalous ascents, which corresponded to a southwestward shift and strengthening of the monsoon trough. In addition, among the favorable large-scale conditions, the increased relative humidity that resulted from intensified moisture flux convergence exerted essential effect on the TC intensification. These changes in atmospheric environmental conditions favoring intense typhoon occurrences over the PS were primarily associated with the change in the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) around the mid-2000s. Besides that, the positive feedback TCs exerted on the circulation was also conducive to the unusual growth in intense typhoon occurrences over the PS. And note that the role of SST anomalies in the air–sea interaction is the key to interpret why the unique phenomenon only occurred in September.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Dr. Bo Wu for his constructive comments. This study was financially supported by the National Basic Research Program (‘973’ Program) of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41375003 and 41321001). BW acknowledges the support from Climate Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation under award No NOAA/DYNAMO # NA13OAR4310167 and the National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea through a Global Research Laboratory (GRL) grant (MEST, #2011-0021927). This is the ESMC publication 110.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Haozhe He, Jing Yang, Daoyi Gong & Miaoni Gao

  2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Haozhe He, Jing Yang, Daoyi Gong & Miaoni Gao

  3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Liguang Wu

  4. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96825, USA

    Bin Wang

  5. Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Bin Wang

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He, H., Yang, J., Wu, L. et al. Unusual growth in intense typhoon occurrences over the Philippine Sea in September after the mid-2000s. Clim Dyn 48, 1893–1910 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3181-9

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