Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 3–4, pp 1017–1030 | Cite as

Climate responses to volcanic eruptions assessed from observations and CMIP5 multi-models

Article

Abstract

This study analyzes climate responses to four volcanic eruptions that occurred since 1960s using observations (including reanalyses) and CMIP5 multi-model simulations. Changes in surface air temperature, specific humidity, and precipitation over the global land are examined during pre- to post-eruption years using a composite analysis. Observations exhibit consistent decreases in temperature, humidity, and precipitation following eruptions, which are reasonably captured by CMIP5 multi-models simulated including volcanic forcing. The observed and simulated decreases in temperature and humidity are stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from pre-industrial control simulations), indicating robust responses. On the other hand, the observed precipitation decrease is significant but the CMIP5 models considerably underestimate it, as reported by previous studies. In order to explore important physical processes determining climate responses to volcanic forcing, a surface energy budget is analyzed together with inter-model relationship between variables. A strong inter-model correlation (r = 0.89) appears between temperature and humidity, representing the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Interestingly, precipitation is found to be closely related with latent heat flux (r = −0.50) and vertical motion (ω) at 500 hPa level (r = −0.68), changes of which are also underestimated by models. Further, by comparing estimates of precipitation minus evaporation between land and ocean, which is significantly correlated with vertical motion (r = −0.73), it is found that monsoon circulation weakens after volcanic eruptions but CMIP5 models substantially underestimate it. Our results suggest that this dynamic response via monsoon circulation weakening can be a critical factor for models’ underestimation of precipitation reduction to volcanic forcing.

Keywords

Volcanic eruptions CMIP5 models Temperature Precipitation Surface energy budget Vertical motion Monsoon circulation 

References

  1. Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426:274–278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andres RJ, Kasgnoc AD (1998) A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions. J Geophys Res Atmos 103:25251–25261CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bala G, Duffy PB, Taylor KE (2008) Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:7664–7669CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Baran AJ, Foot JS (1994) New application of the operational sounder HIRS in determining a climatology of sulphuric acid aerosol from the Pinatubo eruption. J Geophys Res 99:25673–25679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barnes JE, Hofmann DJ (1997) Lidar measurements of stratospheric aerosol over Mauna Loa Observatory. Geophys Res Lett 24:1923–1926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bluth GJS, Rose WI, Sprod IE, Krueger AJ (1997) Stratospheric loading of sulfur from explosive volcanic eruptions. J Geol 105:671–683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cao L, Bala G, Caldeira K (2012) Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of day to weeks. Environ Res Lett 7:034015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Cao L, Bala G, Zheng M, Caldeira K (2015) Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: a linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:12037–12053CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Curry CL, Sillmann J, Bronaugh D et al (2014) A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:3900–3923Google Scholar
  11. Driscoll S, Bozzo A, Gray LJ, Robock A, Stenchikov G (2012) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res 117:D17105. doi:10.1029/2012JD017607 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Emile-Geay J, Seager R, Cane MA, Cook ER, Haug GH (2008) Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium. J Clim 21:3134–3148CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Zorita E, Tett SFB, Casty C, Wanner H (2007) European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium. Geophys Res Lett 34:L05707. doi:10.1029/2006GL027992 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B et al (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  15. Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW, Wehner MF (2004) Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12217. doi:10.1029/2004GL020044 Google Scholar
  16. Govindasamy B, Caldeira K (2000) Geoengineering Earth’s radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate change. Geophys Res Lett 27:2141–2144CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gu G, Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Curtis S (2007) Tropical rainfall variability on interannual-to-interdecadal and longer time scales derived from the GPCP monthly product. J Clim 20:4033–4046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Halpert MS, Ropelewski CF (1992) Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 5:577–593CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hegerl GC, Solomon S (2009) Risks of climate engineering. Science 325:955–956CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hegerl G, Luterbacher J, González-Rouco F, Tett SFB, Crowley T, Xoplaki E (2011) Influence on human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures. Nat Geosci 4:99–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Iles CE, Hegerl GC (2014) The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environ Res Lett 9:104012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Iles CE, Hegerl GC (2015) Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions. Nat Geosci 8:838–842CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Iles CE, Hegerl GC, Schurer AP, Zhang X (2013) The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:8770–8786CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Jones PD, Lister DH, Osborn TJ, Harpham C, Salmon M, Morice CP (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J Geophys Res 117:D05127. doi:10.1029/2011JD017139 Google Scholar
  25. Joseph R, Zeng N (2011) Seasonally modulated tropical drought induced by volcanic aerosol. J Clim 24:2045–2060CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Smith RO, Parker DE, Saunby M (2011a) Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850, part 1: Measurement and sampling uncertainties. J Geophys Res 116:D14103. doi:10.1029/2010JD015218 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Smith RO, Parker DE, Saunby M (2011b) Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations measure in situ since 1850, part 2: biases and homogenization. J Geophys Res 116:D14104. doi:10.1029/2010JD015220 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kirchner I, Stenchikov GL, Graf HF, Robock A, Autuna JC (1999) Climate model simulation of winter warming and summer cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. J Geophys Res 104:19039–19055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kodera K (1994) Influence of volcanic eruptions on the troposphere through stratospheric dynamical processes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J Geophys Res 99:1273–1282CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lambert A, Grainger RG, Remedios JJ, Rodgers CD, Corney M, Taylor FW (1993) Measurements of the evolution of the Mt. Pinatubo aerosol cloud by ISAMS. Geophys Res Lett 20:1287–1290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Liu C, Allan RP, Huffman GJ (2012) Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. Geophys Res Lett 39:L13803. doi:10.1029/2012GL052093 Google Scholar
  32. Maher N, McGregor S, England MH, Gupta AS (2015) Effects of volcanism on tropical variability. Geophys Res Lett 42:6024–6033CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Mann ME, Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Clement A (2005) Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical pacific over the past 1000 years. J Clim 18:447–456CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jonse P (2001) Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 21:1889–1922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Peng Y, Shen C, Wang WC, Xu Y (2010) Response of summer precipitation over eastern China to large volcanic eruptions. J Clim 23:818–824CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2837–2849CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38:191–219CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Robock A, Mao J (1995) The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J Clim 8:1086–1103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Robock A, MacMartin DG, Duren R, Christensen MW (2013) Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs. Clim Change 121:445–458CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Doutriaux C, Boyle JS, Hansen JE, Jones PD, Meehl GA, Roeckner E, Sengupta S, Taylor KE (2001) Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. J Geophys Res Atmos 106:28033–28059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Santer BD, Bonfils C, Painter JF et al (2014) Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat Geosci 7:185–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Self S, Rampino MR, Zhao J, Katz MG (1997) Volcanic aerosol perturbations and strong El Nino events: no general correlation. Geophys Res Lett 24:1247–1250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sterl A (2004) On the (in) homogeneity of reanalysis products. J Clim 17:3866–3873CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Stothers RB (2001) Major optical depth perturbations to the stratosphere from volcanic eruptions: stellar extinction period, 1961–1978. J Geophys Res 106:2993–3003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Trenberth KE, Dai A (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering. Geophys Res Lett 34:L15702. doi:10.1029/2007GL030524 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Mackaro J (2011) Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. J Clim 24:4907–4924CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Trepte CR, Hitchman MH (1992) Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data. Nature 355:626–628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Wegmann M, Bronnimann S, Bhend J, Franke J, Folini D, Wild M, Luterbacher J (2014) Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: possible cause for “Years without Summer”. J Clim 27:3683–3691CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Environmental Science and EngineeringPohang University of Science and TechnologyPohangKorea

Personalised recommendations