A study of quasi-millennial extratropical winter cyclone activity over the Southern Hemisphere
- 307 Downloads
The winter extratropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere during the last one thousand years within a global climate simulation was analyzed by tracking cyclones, and then clustering them into ten clusters consecutively for each hundred years. There is very strong year-to-year variability for Southern Hemispheric winter extratropical cyclone numbers and larger variations on centennial time scale, more so than for its Northern Hemispherical counterparts. However, no obvious trend can be found. The mean tracks of clusters over the Southern Indian Ocean and near New Zealand shift poleward from the eleventh to the twentieth century while the clusters in the central Southern Pacific shift equatorward. Storm track clusters with largest deepening rates are found over the Southwestern Indian Ocean. In the twentieth century, rapidly deepening cyclones appear more often while long lifespan cyclones appear less frequently. The winter storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere is closely related to the Antarctic Oscillation. The cyclone frequency over the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean can be associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation respectively.
KeywordsQuasi-millennium Extratropical cyclone Southern Hemisphere Cyclone numbers
We thank Eduardo Zorita for providing the ECHO-G simulation data, his support with statistic routines, and helpful discussions. We appreciate Kevin I. Hodges’ help with his tracking algorithm which was used for our study. We also acknowledge the German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ) Hamburg for the provision of high performance computing platforms. This study is sponsored by Yunnan Applied Basic Research Project (Foundation No. 2014FD003). The authors appreciate two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments and suggestions.
- Alexandersson H, Schmith T, Iden K, Tuomenvirta H (1998) Longterm variations of the storm climate over NW Europe. Global Atmos Ocean Syst 6:97–120Google Scholar
- Goodwin ID, Browning S, Lorrey AM, Mayewski PA et al (2014) A reconstruction of extratropical Indo-Pacific sea-level pressure patterns during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Clim Dyn 43:1197–1219Google Scholar
- Meinardus W, Mecking L (1928) Das Beobachtungsmaterial der internationalen meteorologischen Kooperation und seine Verwertung nebst Erläuterungen zum meteorologischen Atlas. In: E.v. Drygalski (Hrsg.): Deutsche Südpolar-Expedition 1901–1903 im Auftrage des Reichsamtes des Innern. Verlag Georg Reimer, Berlin, Bd. III: Meteorologie Band I, 2. Hälfte, Heft, vol 1, pp 1–42Google Scholar
- Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data Part I: development and operation of the scheme. Aust Meteorol Mag 39:155–166Google Scholar
- Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmopheric general circulation model ECHAM4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Report No. 218, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr 55, HamburgGoogle Scholar
- Stendel M, Roeckner E (1998) Impacts of horizontal resolution on simulated climate statistics in ECHAM4. Report No. 253, MaxPlanck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr 55, HamburgGoogle Scholar
- van Loon H, Taljaard JJ (1962) Cyclogenesis, cyclones and anticyclones in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter and spring of 1957. Notos 11:3–20Google Scholar
- van Loon H, Taljaard JJ (1963) Cyclogenesis, cyclones and anticyclones in the Southern Hemisphere during summer 1957–1958. Notos 12:37–50Google Scholar
- Wang XLL, Swail VR, Zwiers FW (2004) Climatology and changes of extra-tropical storm tracks and cyclone activities as derived from two global reanalyses and the Canadian CGCM2 projections of future climate. In: Preprints of the eighth international workshop on wave forecast and hindcast, 14–19 November 2004, North Shore, HawaiiGoogle Scholar
- Wolff JO, Maier-Reimer E, Legutke S (1997) The Hamburg Ocean primitive equation model. Technical Report, No. 13, German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ), HamburgGoogle Scholar