Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.

Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.

Abstract

The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from −0.1 to −0.3), particularly in the upper 100–200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

References

  1. Ambar I, Howe MR (1979a) Observations of the Mediterranean out-flow: I. mixing in the Mediterranean outflow. Deep-Sea Res I 26:535–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Ambar I, Howe MR (1979b) Observations of the Mediterranean outflow II—the deep circulation in the vicinity of the Gulf of Cadiz. Deep-Sea Res A 26(5):555–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Antonov JI, Seidov D, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Garcia HE, Baranova OK, Zweng MM, Johnson DR (2010) World Ocean Atlas 2009, vol 2. In: Salinity SL Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69 Washington, DC, 184 pp

  4. Bakun A (1990) Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science 247(4939):198–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Barton ED, Field DB, Roy C (2013) Canary current upwelling: more or less? Prog Oceanogr 116:167–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cordeiro Pires A, Nolasco R, Rocha A, Ramos AM, Dubert J (2014) Global climate Models as forcing for regional ocean modeling: a sensitivity study. Clim Dyn 43:1083–1102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. da Silva AM, Young CC, Levitus S (1994) Atlas of surface marine data 1994. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 10, U.S. Department of Commerce

  8. Demarcq H (2009) Trends in primary production, sea surface temperature and wind in upwelling systems (1998–2007). Prog Oceanogr 83(1–4):376–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Di Lorenzo E, Miller AJ, Schneider N, McWilliams JC (2005) The Warming of the California current system: dynamics and ecosystem implications. J Phys Oceanogr 35:336–362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Fiúza AFG, Macedo ME, Guerreiro MR (1982) Climatological space and time variation of the Portuguese coastal upwelling. Oceanol Acta 5(1)31–40

    Google Scholar 

  11. Frouin R, Fiúza AFG, Ambar I, Boyd TJ (1990) Observations of a poleward surface current off the coasts of Portugal and Spain during winter. J Geophys Res 95(C1):679–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Garreaud RD, Falvey M (2009) The coastal winds off western tropical South America in future climate scenarios. Int J Climatol 29:543–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Hewitson BC, Crane RG (1996) Climate downscaling: techniques and application. Clim Res 7:85–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Holt J, Wakelin S, Lowe J, Tinker J (2010) The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf. Prog Oceanogr 86(3–4):361–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Huybrechts P, Gregory J, Janssens I, Wilde M (2004) Modelling Antarctic and Greenland volume changes during the 20th and 21st centuries forced by GCM time slice integrations. Glob Planet Change 42:83–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Lee T, Waliser DE, Li JLF, Landerer FW, Gierach MM (2013) Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 wind stress climatology using satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis products. J Clim 26:5810–5826

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Lemos RT, Pires HO (2004) The upwelling regime off the west Portuguese coast, 1941–2000. Int J Climatol 24:511–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Garcia HE, Baranova OK, Zweng MM, Johnson DR (2010) World Ocean Atlas 2009, vol 1: temperature. In: Levitus S (ed) NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69 Washington, DC, 184 pp

  19. Marchesiello P, McWilliams JC, Shchepetkin A (2003) Equilibrium structure and dynamics of the California current system. J Phys Oceanogr 33:753–783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC (2007) Global climate projections. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of WGI to AR4 of the IPCC, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL eds. Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA

  21. Miranda PMA, Alves JMR, Serra N (2012) Climate change and upwelling: response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate scenario. Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2813–2824

    Google Scholar 

  22. Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grubler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher HM, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith SJ, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 599 pp

    Google Scholar 

  23. Narayan N, Paul A, Mulitza S, Schulz M (2010) Trends in coastal upwelling intensity during the late 20th century. Ocean Sci Discuss 7:335–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Nolasco R, Cordeiro Pires A, Cordeiro N, Le Cann B, Dubert J (2013) A high-resolution modeling study of the Western Iberian Margin mean and seasonal upper ocean circulation. Ocean Dyn 63(9–10):1041–1062

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Pardo PC, Padín XA, Gilcoto M, Farina-Busto L, Pérez FF (2011) Evolution of upwelling systems coupled to the long-term variability in sea surface temperature and Ekman transport. Clim Res 48:231–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Pauly D, Christensen V (1995) Primary production required to sustain global fisheries. Nature 374:255–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Peliz A, Dubert J, Santos AMP, Oliveira PB, Le Cann B (2005) Winter upper ocean circulation in the Western Iberian Basin—Fronts, Eddies and Poleward Flows: an overview. Deep-Sea Res I 52:621–646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Pires AC (2013) Modeling the Western Iberian margin circulation: present and future. PhD thesis, Univ Aveiro, Portugal

  29. Ramos AM, Cordeiro Pires A, Sousa PM, Trigo RM (2013) The use of circulation weather types to predict upwelling activity along the western Iberian Peninsula coast. Cont Shelf Res 69:38–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Ramos AM, Cortesi N, Trigo RM (2014) Circulation weather types and spatial variability of daily precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula. Front Earth Sci 2:25

    Google Scholar 

  31. Relvas P, Barton ED, Dubert J, Oliveira PB, Peliz A, da Silva JCB, Santos AMP (2007) Physical oceanography of the western Iberia ecosystem: latest views and challenges. Prog Oceanogr 74:149–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Relvas P, Luis J, Santos AMP (2009) Importance of the mesoscale in the decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system. Geophys Res Lett 36:L22601

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Ruiz-Villarreal M, Álvarez-Salgado XA, Cabanas JM, Fernández-Pérez F, González-Castro C, Herrera-Cortijo JL, Piedracoba-Varela S, Rosón-Porto G (2008) Variabilidade Climática e Tendencias Decadais nos Forzamentos Meteorolóxicos e as Propiedades das Augas Adjacentes a Galiza. In: Evidencias e Impactos do Cambio Climático en Galicia, chapter 13, Xunta da Galiza, Spain (http://siam.cmati.xunta.es/resultados-do-proxecto)

  34. Santos AMP, Kasmin AS, Peliz A (2005) Decadal changes in the Canary upwelling system as revealed by satellite observations: their impact on productivity. J Mar Res 63:359–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Seidel DJ, Fu Q, Randel WJ, Reichler TJ (2008) Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nat Geosci 1:21–24

    Google Scholar 

  36. Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2003) A method for computing horizontal pressure-gradient force in an oceanic model with a non-aligned vertical coordinate. J Geophys Res 108(C3):3090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2005) The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Mod 9(4):347–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Diffenbaugh NS, Bell JL (2003) Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett 30(15)

  39. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

  40. Stouffer RJ (2004) Time scales of climate response. J Climate 17:209–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Stouffer RJ, Yin J, Gregory JM, Dixon KW, Spelman MJ, Hurlin W, Weaver AJ, Eby M, Flato GM, Hasumi H, Hu A, Jungclaus JH, Kamenkovich IV, Levermann A, Montoya M, Murakami S, Nawrath S, Oka A, Peltier WR, Robitaille DY (2006) Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J Clim 19(8):1365–1387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Wang M, Overland JE, Bond NA (2010) Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems. J Mar Sys 79:258–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Woolings T (2010) Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future. Phil Trans R Soc A 368:3733–3756

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

A. Cordeiro Pires was supported by the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) through PhD fellowship SFRH/BD/47500/2008. R. Nolasco was supported by the FCT program “Ciência 2007″. A.M. Ramos was supported by FCT through post-doctoral fellowship SFRH/BPD/84328/2012. This work was supported by the Spanish project CTM2011-30155-C03-01 (Ministério de Economia y Competitividad). We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), and the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy for the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. The authors would like to thank the reviewers of this paper, whose comments have greatly improved the manuscript, and who have contributed to its current form.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ana Cordeiro Pires.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOC 1010 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cordeiro Pires, A., Nolasco, R., Rocha, A. et al. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling. Clim Dyn 47, 451–464 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2848-y

Download citation

Keywords

  • Hydrography
  • Ocean circulation
  • ROMS
  • Seasonality
  • Upwelling
  • IPCC