Interdecadal modulation on the relationship between ENSO and typhoon activity during the late season in the western North Pacific
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The present study identifies an interdecadal modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and typhoon activity during the late season (October–December) in the western North Pacific. The PDO is uncorrelated with ENSO during the warm phase of 1979–1997, while the PDO is positively correlated with ENSO during the cold phase of 1998–2012. Further analyses show that the warm phase is associated with the reduced ENSO–typhoon activity relationship and more typhoons, whereas the cold phase is corresponded to the enhanced ENSO–typhoon activity relationship and fewer typhoons. These variations are mainly manifested by a significant difference of typhoon activity in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific. Moreover, the change of ENSO–typhoon relationship is largely due to changes in large-scale environmental conditions especially from low-level vorticity and vertical wind shear between the two phases, which are related to the changes in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The study implies that the phase of the PDO should be taken into account when ENSO is used as a predictor for predicting typhoon activity in the western North Pacific.
KeywordsInterdecadal modulation Pacific decadal oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation Typhoon activity
The authors thank Dr. Kevin Walsh from University of Melbourne in Australia, Dr. Pao-Shin Chu from University of Hawaii in USA and Dr. Liguang Wu from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China for discussion and comments on the early stage of this manuscript. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41305050, 41275093, 41375098, 41475091), the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB430301, 2015CB452803), the Project of Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction under contract No. GASI-03-IPOVAI-04, the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office, and the base funding of NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the funding agency.
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