Climate Dynamics

, Volume 46, Issue 3–4, pp 1331–1350

Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

  • Salvatore Pascale
  • Valerio Lucarini
  • Xue Feng
  • Amilcare Porporato
  • Shabeh ul Hasson
Article
  • 656 Downloads

Abstract

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than \(90\,\%\) of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

Keywords

Rainfall seasonality indicators CMIP5 models Representative concentration pathways Drought index Monsoons 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Salvatore Pascale
    • 1
    • 5
  • Valerio Lucarini
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Xue Feng
    • 4
  • Amilcare Porporato
    • 4
  • Shabeh ul Hasson
    • 1
  1. 1.Klima CampusMeteorologisches InstitutHamburgGermany
  2. 2.Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
  3. 3.Walker Institute for Climate System ResearchUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
  4. 4.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringDuke UniversityDurhamUSA
  5. 5.California Institute of TechnologyPasadenaUSA

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