Skip to main content

Influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December

Abstract

The relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) activity in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during October–December under cold (1950–1974) and warm (1975–2006) phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated. A statistically significant difference in the formation of total number of TCs and intense TCs (Category-1 and above) between El Niño and La Niña years is observed when the PDO was in warm phase. Our analysis shows that, there is a tendency to form more number of TCs during La Niña years (2.62 TCs per season) than during El Niño years (1.6 TCs per season) under warm phase of PDO. Moreover, the difference is quite high for intense TCs cases, such as, relatively more number of intense TCs forms in the BoB during La Niña years (1.4 TCs per season) compared to El Niño years (0.10 TCs per season) under warm phase of PDO. However, the difference in the formation of total number of TCs and intense TCs between La Niña and El Niño years is not significant under cold phase of PDO. Significant enhancement in low level cyclonic vorticity and mid-troposphere humidity during La Niña years compared to El Niño years when the PDO was in warm phase, rather than the PDO was in cold phase leads to this difference. Our analysis further shows that how the ENSO related teleconnection to the Indian Ocean region differ under warm and cold phase of PDO.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

References

  1. Burls NJ, Reason CJC, Penven P, Philander SG (2012) Energetics of the tropical Atlantic zonal mode. J Clim 25(21):7442–7466. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00602.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Camargo SJ, Emanuel KA, Sobel AH (2007) Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J Clim 20:4819–4830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Chen GT-J, Wang C–C, Lin L-F (2006) A diagnostic study of a retreating Mei-Yu front and the accompanying low-level jet formation and intensification. Mon Weather Rev 134:874–896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Chiang J, Sobel A (2002) Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate*. J Clim 15:2616–2631. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2616:TTTVCB>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chowdary JS, Xie S-P, Tokinaga H, Okumura YM, Kubota H, Johnson N, Zheng X-T (2012) Interdecadal variations in ENSO teleconnection to the Indo-Western Pacific for 1870–2007*. J Clim 25:1722–1744. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00070.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. DeBlander EF (2012) Relationship between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and southern Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Master of Science Thesis, Oregon State University

  7. DeMaria M (1996) The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change. J Atmos Sci 53:2076–2088. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2076:TEOVSO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455:92–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Emanuel KA (1999) Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature 401:665–669. doi:10.1038/44326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Evan AT, Kossin JP, Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2011) Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature 479:94–97. doi:10.1038/nature10552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Felton C, Subrahmanyam B, Murty VSN (2013) ENSO Modulated cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal. J Clim 26:9806–9818

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2715–2725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106(449):447–462. doi:10.1002/qj.49710644905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M (2012) The influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2011JC007417

    Google Scholar 

  15. Goodrich GB (2007) Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on winter precipitation and drought during years of neutral ENSO in the Western United States. Weather Forecast 22:116–124. doi:10.1175/WAF983.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys Res Lett 32(18):L18717. doi:10.1029/2005GL023216

    Google Scholar 

  17. Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society. Reading, UK, pp 155–218

    Google Scholar 

  18. Hui S, Neelin D, Meyerson JE (2003) Sensitivity of tropospheric temperature to see surface temperature forcing. J Clim 16:1283–1301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Hui S, Neelin D, Meyerson JE (2005) Mechanisms for lagged atmospheric Response to ENSO SST forcing*. J Clim 18:4195–4215. doi:10.1175/JCLI3514.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Kaplan J, DeMaria MJ, Knaff A (2010) A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Basins. Weather Forecast 25:220–241. doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Kim J-W, Yeh S-W, Chang E-C (2013) Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1730-z

    Google Scholar 

  23. Klotzbach PJ (2012) El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2012JD017714

    Google Scholar 

  24. Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:363–376. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Kousky VE, Kagano MT, Cavalcanti IFA (1984) Review of the Southern Oscillation: oceanic–atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus Ser A 36:490–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2013) Influence of PDO on South Asian summer monsoon and monsoon–ENSO relation. Clim Dyn 42:2397–2410. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1856-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0330-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Kumar P, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M, Sahai AK (2007) On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Clim Dyn 28:649–660. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0210-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Latif M, Barnett TP (1996) Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability. J Clim 9:2407–2423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2001) Impact of ENSO on SST variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic: seasonal dependence and role of extratropical sea–air coupling. J Clim 14:2846–2866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Lee HS, Yamashita T, Mishima T (2012) Multi-decadal variations of ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 105:67–80. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.04.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Li Z, Yu W, Li T, Murty VSN, Tangang F (2013) Bimodal character of cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal modulated by monsoon seasonal cycle. J Clim 26:1033–1046. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00627.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Lübbecke JF, Böning CW, Keenlyside NS, Xie S-P (2010) On the connection between Benguela and equatorial Atlantic Niños and the role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone. J Geophys Res 115(C9):C09015. doi:10.1029/2009JC005964

    Google Scholar 

  35. Lupo AR, Johnston GJ (2000) The variability in Atlantic Ocean Basin hurricane occurrence and intensity as related to ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation. Natl Wea Dig 24(1–2):3–13

    Google Scholar 

  36. Lupo AR, Latham TK, Magill TH (2008) The interannual variability of hurricane activity in the Atlantic and East Pacific regions. Natl Wea Dig 32:11–33

    Google Scholar 

  37. Mantuna NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal Ocillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Mantuna NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. McPhaden MJ (2002) El Niño and La Niña: causes and global consequences. In: Munn T (ed) Encyclopedia of global environmental change. Wiley, Chichester, pp 353–370

    Google Scholar 

  40. Ng EKW, Chan JCL (2012) Interannual variations of tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 32:819–830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Niyas NT, Srivastava AK, Hatwar HR (2009) Variability and trend in the cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean. Met Monogr, no. 3, Cyclone warning-3/2009

  42. Parker DE, Folland CK, Jackson M (1995) Marine surface temperature: observed variations and data requirements. Clim Chang 31:559–600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Picaut J, Ioualalen M, Delcroix T, Masia F, Murtugudde R, Vialard J (2001) The oceanic zone of convergence on the eastern edge of the Pacific warm pool: a synthesis of results and implications for El Niño–Southern Oscillation and biogeochemical phenomena. J Geophys Res 106:2363–2386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Pottapinjara V, Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M, Murtugudde R (2014) Influence of the Atlantic Zonal mode on monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal during boreal summer. JGR Atmos. doi:10.1002/2014JD021494

    Google Scholar 

  45. Power SB, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Rajeevan M, McPhaden MJ (2004) Tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content variations and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 31:L18203. doi:10.1029/2004GL020631

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Rajeevan M, Sridhar L (2008) Interannual relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L21704. doi:10.1029/2008GL036025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Rajeevan M, Srinivasan J, Niranjankumar K, Gnanaseelan C, Ali MM (2013) On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Atmos Sci Lett 14(4):249–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Rasmusson E, Carpenter T (1982) Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon Weather Rev 110:354–384. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0354:VITSST>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363. doi:10.1038/43854

    Google Scholar 

  52. Tanimoto Y, Iwasaka N, Hanawa K, Toba Y (1993) Characteristic variation of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific. J Clim 6:1153–1160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO–monsoon system. J Clim 12:2679–2710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Tziperman E, Cane MA, Zebiak S, Xue Y, Blumenthal B (1998) Locking of El Niño’s peak time to the end of the calendar year in the delayed oscillator picture of ENSO. J Clim 11:2191–2199. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2191:LOENOS>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Wang L, Chen W, Huang R (2008) Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20702. doi:10.1029/2008GL035287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Webster PJ, Moore AW, Loschnigg JP, Leben RR (1999) Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–1998. Nature 401:356–360. doi:10.1038/43848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Wu L, Su H, Fovell RG, Wang B, Shen JT, Kahn BH, Hristova-Veleva SM, Lambrigtsen BH, Fetzer EJ, Jiang JH (2012) Relationship of environmental relative humidity with North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification rate. Geophys Res Lett 39:L20809. doi:10.1029/2012GL053546

    Google Scholar 

  58. Xie S-P, Carton JA (2004) Tropical Atlantic variability: patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. In: Wang C, Xie SP, Carton JA (eds) Earth’s climate. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  59. Yadav RK (2012) Why is ENSO influencing Indian northeast monsoon in the recent decades? Int J Climatol 32:2163–2180. doi:10.1002/joc.2430

    Google Scholar 

  60. Yadav RK, Yoo JH, Kucharski F, Abid MA (2010) Why is ENSO influencing Northwest India Winter precipitation in recent decades? J Clim 23:1979–1993. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3202.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Zebiak SE (1993) Air–sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J Clim 6(8):1567–1586. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1567:AIITEA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Climate. 10:1004–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The encouragement provided by the Director, INCOIS is gratefully acknowledged. We would also like to acknowledge two anonymous reviewers, whose comments and suggestions greatly improved the manuscript. The ONI used in this study was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Graphics are generated using Ferret. This is INCOIS publication 199.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. S. Girishkumar.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Girishkumar, M.S., Thanga Prakash, V.P. & Ravichandran, M. Influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. Clim Dyn 44, 3469–3479 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2282-6

Download citation

Keywords

  • Tropical cyclone
  • Bay of Bengal
  • El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)