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Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models

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Abstract

The study analyses the annual structure of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula through a second markov chain model based on the persistence concept under present and future conditions. The persistence of dryness can be considered as an indicator of drought, being useful for early warning drought systems. It can be studied as an isolated factor, here we focus the analysis on the probability of dry spells occurrence at each grid point of the domain by means of a two-state second order of Markov Chain model. Previous studies using this model along twentieth century observational data obtained successful results in the dry spells characterisation over several regions. First, the application of this theoretical model on three observational datasets over the domain, confirms the second order of markov chain characteristics of the observed dry spells. Then, the observational climate (1989–2007) EraInterim-forced regional climate model simulations from Spanish ESCENA project are successfully compared with those observational datasets results. Then, the study of climate change projections on the markovian behaviour is studied through the ECHAM5r2 global climate model and the regional models under present (1970–2000) and future (2021–2050) climate conditions. They indicate that the markovian characteristics of dry spells are kept in the future over the domain except some points in the South East coast. A decrease of the probability of occurrence of short dry spells (1–7 days) is obtained, while the longest dry spells (>12 days) are increased. These results are coherent with the analysis of the annual average of dry spells length.

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Acknowledgments

This research has been funded by the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha regional government from Spain (2010-2013; Project POII100255-8836). Project CGL2010-18013, financed by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, also contributed to this study. Spain02 and modelling data are provided by the following: ESCENA Spanish project (2008-2011, Secretaría de Estado de Cambio Climático, Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente). The E-OBS dataset was obtained from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

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  1. Noelia López-Franca

    Present address: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Ciudad Universitaria. Int. Guiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, Piso 2, C1428EGA, Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

  2. Teresa Losada

    Present address: Departamento de Física de la Tierra I, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Av. Complutense, 28040, Madrid, Spain

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain

    Enrique Sánchez, Teresa Losada & Miguel Ángel Gaertner

  2. Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain

    Noelia López-Franca, Marta Domínguez & Raquel Romera

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  1. Noelia López-Franca
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López-Franca, N., Sánchez, E., Losada, T. et al. Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models. Clim Dyn 45, 661–677 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2280-8

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