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Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

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Abstract

A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general increase from 1874 to present and an oscillation with a cycle of 25–40 years. The magnitude of the extreme events also oscillates, but with a cycle of 15–30 years and a smaller amplitude. Regional analysis of a larger Danish dataset with a shorter observations period found a countrywide low period in 1970–1979. It is furthermore concluded that the oscillation signal along the west coast of Denmark is dominated by the changeable coastal weather of this region. The eastern part of Denmark shows a more consistent signal, which partly can be explained by an index derived from sea level pressure differences between Gibraltar and Haparanda. The identification of a cyclic pattern in the extreme rainfall is highly relevant for our understanding of the non-stationarities in flood hazard.

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Acknowledgments

This work was carried out with the support of the Danish Strategic Research Council as part of the project ‘‘Centre for Regional Change in the Earth System’’, contract no. 09-066868 and from The Foundation for Development of Technology in the Danish Water Sector, contract no. 7492-2012. The authors are also grateful to the Danish Meteorological Institute and Lars Bengtsson, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Sweden for providing the data, and Patrick Willems, Hydraulics Division, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, and Martin Drews, Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, for valuable discussions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Ida Bülow Gregersen, Dan Rosbjerg & Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen

  2. DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark

    Henrik Madsen

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  1. Ida Bülow Gregersen
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  2. Henrik Madsen
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  3. Dan Rosbjerg
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  4. Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
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Correspondence to Ida Bülow Gregersen.

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Gregersen, I.B., Madsen, H., Rosbjerg, D. et al. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden. Clim Dyn 44, 3155–3169 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4

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