Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable?

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Future projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its large-scale thermodynamic driver are studied by using CMIP5 model outputs. While all models project an increasing precipitation in the future warming scenario, most of them project a weakening large-scale thermodynamic driver arising from a weakening of the upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) gradient over south Asian summer monsoon region. The weakening of the UTT gradient under global warming scenarios is related to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) leading to a stronger increase of UTT over the EIO region relative to the northern Indian region, a hypothesis supported by a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments forced by projected SSTs. To diagnose the inconsistency between the model projections of precipitation and the large-scale thermodynamic driver, we have examined the rate of total precipitation explained by convective and stratiform precipitations in observations and in CMIP5 models. It is found that most models produce too much (little) convective (stratiform) precipitation compared to observations. In addition, we also find stronger precipitable water—precipitation relationship in most CMIP5 models as compared to observations. Hence, the atmospheric moisture content produced by the model immediately gets converted to precipitation even though the large-scale thermodynamics in models weaken. Therefore, under global warming scenarios, due to increased temperature and resultant increased atmospheric moisture supply, these models tend to produce unrealistic local convective precipitation often not in tune with other large-scale variables. Our results questions the reliability of the ISMR projections in CMIP5 models and highlight the need to improve the convective parameterization schemes in coupled models for the reliable projections of the ISMR.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and hydrological cycle. Nature 419:224–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Xie SP, McCreary JP, Murtugudde R (2005) Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing ElNino. J Clim 18:302–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20:1071–1092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arakawa A, Schubert WH (1974) Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, part I. J Atmos Sci 31:674–701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashfaq M, Shi Y, Teng W, Trapp RJ, Gao X, Pal JS, Diffenbaugh NS (2009) Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 36:L01704. doi:10.1029/2008GL036500

    Google Scholar 

  • Bollasina MA, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the south Asian summer monsoon. Science 334:502–505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bougeault P (1985) A simple parameterization of the large scale effects of cumulus convection. Mon Weather Rev 4:469–485

    Google Scholar 

  • Carbon RE, Tuttle JD, Ahijevych DA, Trier SB (2002) Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. J Atmos Sci 59:2033–2056

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chattopadhyay R, Goswami BN, Sahai AK, Fraedrich K (2009) role of stratiform rainfall in modifying the northward propagation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. J Geophys Res 114(D19):1–15. doi:10.1029/2009JD011869

    Google Scholar 

  • Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802

    Google Scholar 

  • Chikira M, Sugiyama M (2010) A cumulus parameterization with state-dependent entrainment rate. Part I: description sensitivity to temperature and humidity profiles. J Atmos Sci 67:2171–2193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2006) Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. J Clim 19:4605–4630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donner LJ, Seman CJ, Hemler RS, Fan SM (2001) A cumulus parameterization including mass fluxes, convective vertical velocities, and mesoscale effects: thermodynamic and hydrological aspects in a general circulation model. J Clim 14(16):3444–3463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Royer JF, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB, Valdes PJ (2000) Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian summer monsoon: robust versus model-dependent responses. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 78:421–439

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1991) A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J Atmos Sci 48:2313–2335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1993) A cumulus representation based on the episodic mixing model: the importance of mixing and microphysics in predicting humidity. AMS Meteorol Monogr 24(46):185–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan F, Mann ME, Lee S, Evans JL (2012) Future changes in the south Asian summer monsoon: an analysis of the CMIP3 multimodel projections. J Clim 25:3909–3928

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Gadgil S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ Politic Week 41:4887–4895

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58:175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18717. doi:10.1029/2005GL023216

    Google Scholar 

  • Grandpeix JY, Lafore JP (2010) A density current parameterization coupled with Emanuel’s convection scheme. Part I: the models. J Atmos Sci 67(4):881–897

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grandpeix JY, Lafore JP, Cheruy F (2010) A density current parameterization coupled with Emanuel’s convection scheme. Part II: 1d simulations. J Atmos Sci 67(4):898–922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory D, Rowntree PR (1990) A mass flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability dependant closure. Mon Weather Rev 118:1483–1506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hazra A, Goswami BN, Chen JP (2013) Role of interactions between aerosol radiative effect, dynamics and cloud microphysics on transitions of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. J Atmos Sci 70:2073–2087

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hazra A, Chaudhari HS, Rao SA, Goswami BN, Dhakate A, Pokhrel S, Saha SK (2014) Improvement of Indian Summer Monsoon simulations for NCEP CFSv2 through modification of cloud microphysical scheme. J Clim (in review)

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robest responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu ZZ, Latif M, Roeckner E, Bengtsson L (2000) Intensified Asian summer monsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentartions. Geophys Res Lett 27:2681–2684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iguchi T, Kozu T, Meneghine R, Awaka J, Okamoto K (2000) Rain-profiling algorithm for the TRMM precipitation radar. J Appl Meteorol 39:2038–2052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Chaudhari HS (2007) South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 90:133–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnakumar K, Kamala K, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling MP, Eischeid JK, Patwardhan SK, Srinivasan G, Goswami BN, Nemani R (2011) The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate. Clim Dyn 36:2159–2170. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0974-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Tebaldi C (2005) Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18719. doi:10.1029/2005GL023680

    Google Scholar 

  • Menon A, Levermann A, Schewe J, Lehmann J, Frieler K (2013) Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models. Earth Sys Dynam 4:287–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moorthi S, Saurez MJ (1992) Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert. A parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 120:978–1002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naidu CV, Durgalakshmi K, Krishna KM, Rao SR, Satyanarayana GC, Lakshminarayana P, Rao LM (2009) Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? J Geophys Res 114:D24108. doi:10.1029/2008JD011288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neale RB, Richter JH, Jochum M (2008) The impact of convection on ENSO: from a delayed oscillator to a series of events. J Clim 21:5904–5924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordeng TE (1994) Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. ECMWF Tech Memo 206:41

    Google Scholar 

  • Pan DM, Randall DA (1998) A cumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure. Q J R Meteorol Soc 124:949–981

    Google Scholar 

  • Pokhrel S, Sikka DR (2013) Variability of the TRMM-PR total and convective and stratiform rain fractions over the Indian region during the summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 41:21–44. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1502-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao SA, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Goswami BN (2010) Unusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008: role of southern tropical Indian ocean warming. J Clim 23:5163–5174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter JH, Rasch PJ (2008) Effects of convective momentum transport on the atmospheric circulation in the community atmosphere model, version 3. J Clim 21:1487–1499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodell M, Velicogna I, Famiglietti JS (2009) Satellite-based estimates of ground water depletion in India. Nature 460:999–1002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E et al (2006) Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J Clim 19:3771–3791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, Ajayamohan RS, Murtugudde R (2012) On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift. Clim Dyn 39:841–859. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1269-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabeerali CT, Dandi AR, Dhakate A, Salunke K, Mahapatra S, Rao SA (2013) Simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the latest CMIP5 coupled GCMs. J Geophys Res 118:4401–4420. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50403

    Google Scholar 

  • Schumacher C, Rah Jr, Kraucunas I (2004) The tropical dynamical response to latent heating estimates derived from the TRMM precipitation radar. J Atmos Sci 61:1341–1358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stowasser M, Annamalai H, Hafner J (2009) Response of the South Asian summer monsoon to global warming: mean and synoptic systems. J Clim 22:1014–1036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swapna P, Krishnan R, Wallace JM (2013) Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1787-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao WK, Lang S, Simpson J, Adler R (1993) Retrieval algorithms for estimating the vertical profiles of latent heat release: their applications for TRMM. J Atmos Sci 71:685–700

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1779–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmusen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205,1205-1217

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate change and the south Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Change 2:587–595. doi:10.1038/nclimate1495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Salzen K, Scinocca JF, McFarlane NA, Li J, Cole JNS, Plummer D, Reader MC, Ma X, Lazare M, Solheim L (2013) The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Physical processes. Atmos Ocean 51:104–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE et al (2009) Cloud ice: a climate model challenge with signs and expectations of progress. J Geophys Res 114:D00A21. doi:10.1029/2008JD010015

    Google Scholar 

  • Wicox EM, Donner LJ (2007) The frequency of extreme rain events in satellite rain-rate estimates and an atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 20:53–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xavier PK, Marzin C, Goswami BN (2007) An objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon season and a new perspective on the ENSO-monsoon relationship. Q J R Meteorol Soc 133:749–764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA, Adler R, Gruber A, Ferraro R, Huffman GJ, Curtis S (2003) GPCP pentad precipitation analyses: an experimental dataset based on gauge observations and satellite estimates. J Clim 16(13):2197–2214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang GJ, McFarlane NA (1995) Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. Atmos Ocean 33:407–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, New Delhi. We thank the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for making available the gridded rainfall data. We are also thankful to NASA website for providing the TRMM-PR data and Dr. S. Pokhrel for useful discussions on TRMM data processing. We also acknowledge the ECMWF for their ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets. NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ are also acknowledged. The authors are also thankful to Dr. Anupam Hazra for simulating scientific discussions particularly about the cumulus parameterization schemes in models. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The authors would like to thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their time and valuable comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India

    C. T. Sabeerali, Suryachandra A. Rao, A. R. Dhakate, K. Salunke & B. N. Goswami

Authors
  1. C. T. Sabeerali
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Suryachandra A. Rao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. R. Dhakate
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. K. Salunke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. B. N. Goswami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Suryachandra A. Rao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sabeerali, C.T., Rao, S.A., Dhakate, A.R. et al. Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable?. Clim Dyn 45, 161–174 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2269-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2269-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation