Climate Dynamics

, Volume 44, Issue 9–10, pp 2623–2635

The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5

  • Andrew D. King
  • Markus G. Donat
  • Lisa V. Alexander
  • David J. Karoly
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2159-8

Cite this article as:
King, A.D., Donat, M.G., Alexander, L.V. et al. Clim Dyn (2015) 44: 2623. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2159-8

Abstract

Australian rainfall is strongly influenced by El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and rainfall in eastern Australia is non-linear; the magnitude of La Niña events has a greater effect on rainfall than does the magnitude of El Niño events, and the cause of the non-linearity is unclear from previous work. The twentieth century reanalysis succeeds in capturing the asymmetric ENSO-rainfall relationship. In the reanalysis the asymmetry is strongly related to moisture availability in the south-west Pacific whereas wind flow is of less importance. Some global climate models (GCMs) in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) archive capture the asymmetric nature of the ENSO-rainfall relationship whilst others do not. Differences in thermodynamic processes and their relationships with ENSO are the primary cause of variability in model performance. Analysis of an atmosphere-only run of a GCM which fails to capture the non-linear ENSO-rainfall relationship is also conducted. The atmospheric run forced by observed sea surface temperatures shows no significant improvement in the ENSO-rainfall relationship over the corresponding coupled model run in the CMIP5 archive. This result suggests that some models are failing to capture the atmospheric teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and Australia, and both this and a realistic representation of oceanic ENSO characteristics are required for coupled models to accurately capture the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection. These findings have implications for the study of rainfall projections in the region.

Keywords

Twentieth century reanalysis Precipitation Dynamics Thermodynamics Asymmetry El Niño-southern oscillation 

Supplementary material

382_2014_2159_MOESM1_ESM.eps (8.1 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (EPS 8311 kb) (a-b) Maps of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the Oct-Mar Niño-3.4 index and precipitation in AWAP in (a) seasons where the Niño-3.4 index is negative only and (b) seasons where the Niño-3.4 index is positive only. Stippling indicates correlations significant at the 5 % level

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Andrew D. King
    • 1
  • Markus G. Donat
    • 1
  • Lisa V. Alexander
    • 1
  • David J. Karoly
    • 2
  1. 1.ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, Level 4, Mathews BuildingUniversity of New South WalesSydneyAustralia
  2. 2.ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and School of Earth SciencesUniversity of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia

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