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Six centuries of May–July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings

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Abstract

A May–July precipitation nested reconstruction for the period AD 1415–2010 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus nigra, Pinus brutia, and Cedrus brevifolia for Cyprus. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1917–2010 show a good level of skill, and split-sample validation over 1917–2010 supports temporal stability of the tree-ring signal for precipitation. Smoothed annual time series of reconstructed precipitation and a tally of drought events in a moving time window indicate that the calibration period is not representative of the full range of drought variability. While convective precipitation in the warm season may be driven strongly by local factors, composite maps of geopotential height anomaly for dry years and wet years support large-scale atmospheric-flow influence related to height anomalies over the broader region of northeast Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Emerging positive trend in reconstruction residuals may be an early sign of exacerbation of drought stress on trees by recent warming in May–July. Future warming expected from increases in greenhouse gases poses a threat to forest resources in Cyprus and elsewhere in the Mediterranean.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the Cyprus Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Forestry, and the Cyprus Forestry College, Mr. Konstantinos Rovanias and Mr. Loizos Constantinou for their help and support. We thank Christopher Baisan, Elina Minaidou, Loizos Constantinou for his valuable help in the field. We thank Martin Munro for helping with the graphics. Funding was provided by the US National Science Foundation under Grant Earth System History (Grant No. 0075956) and ATM-GEO/ATM-Paleoclimate Program 0758486.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St. Bldg. No. 45B, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    Ramzi Touchan & David M. Meko

  2. Department of Forests, 1414, Nicosia, Cyprus

    Andreas K. Christou

Authors
  1. Ramzi Touchan
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  2. Andreas K. Christou
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  3. David M. Meko
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Correspondence to Ramzi Touchan.

Electronic supplementary material

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382_2014_2104_MOESM1_ESM.tif

Supplementary material Figure 1S. Comparison of actual and estimated May-July precipitation for the period 1917-2002 and 2010. (TIFF 8227 kb)

382_2014_2104_MOESM2_ESM.eps

Supplementary material Figure 2S. Average May-July geopotential height anomaly for the six individual years of the “dry observed” composite. Composite is Figure 7A in paper. Red star marks location of Cyprus. (EPS 1167 kb)

382_2014_2104_MOESM3_ESM.eps

Supplementary material Figure 3S. Average May-July geopotential height anomaly for the six individual years of the “dry reconstructed” composite. Composite is Figure 7C in paper. Red star marks location of Cyprus. (EPS 1169 kb)

382_2014_2104_MOESM4_ESM.eps

Supplementary material Figure 4S. Average May-July geopotential height anomaly for the six individual years of the “wet observed” composite. Composite is Figure 7B in paper. Red star marks location of Cyprus. (EPS 1125 kb)

382_2014_2104_MOESM5_ESM.eps

Supplementary material Figure 5S. Average May-July geopotential height anomaly for the six individual years of the “wet reconstructed” composite. Composite is Figure 7D in paper. Red star marks location of Cyprus. (EPS 1142 kb)

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Touchan, R., Christou, A.K. & Meko, D.M. Six centuries of May–July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings. Clim Dyn 43, 3281–3292 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2104-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2104-x

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