Climate Dynamics

, Volume 42, Issue 7–8, pp 2079–2097 | Cite as

Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

  • F. S. Syed
  • Waheed Iqbal
  • Ahsan Ali Bukhari Syed
  • G. Rasul
Article

Abstract

The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971–2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071–2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Keywords

Regional climate model RegCM4 PRECIS South-Asia Monsoon Climate change Uncertainty 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Technical support of Burhan Ahmad and Farah Ikram is much appreciated. The authors acknowledge the RegCM4 group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, for providing the model with LBC data and also the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom for providing the PRECIS model with LBC data. Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia and University of Delaware (UDEL) are also acknowledged for providing observed Air Temperature and Precipitation data. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Max Plank Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) are also acknowledged for providing ERA40 and ECHAM5 data respectively. We are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for the very useful comments and suggestions, which resulted in the lot of improvement in the paper.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • F. S. Syed
    • 1
    • 2
  • Waheed Iqbal
    • 2
  • Ahsan Ali Bukhari Syed
    • 2
  • G. Rasul
    • 2
  1. 1.Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD), Department of MeteorologyCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyIslamabadPakistan
  2. 2.Research and Development DivisionPakistan Meteorological DepartmentIslamabadPakistan

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