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Prediction of global patterns of dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

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Abstract

Daily output from the hindcasts by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand the skill of forecasting atmospheric variability on quasi-biweekly (QBW) time scale. Eight dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) modes identified by the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are focused. In the CFSv2, QBW variability exhibits a significant weakening tendency with lead time for all seasons. For most QBWO modes, the variance drops to only 50 % of the initial value at lead time of 11–15 days. QBW variability has better prediction skill in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Skillful forecast can reach about 10–15 days for most modes but those in the winter hemisphere have better forecast skills. Among the eight QBWO modes, the North Pacific mode and the South Pacific (SP) mode have the highest forecast skills while the Asia–Pacific mode and the Central American mode have the lowest skills. For the Asia–Pacific and Central American modes, the forecasted QBWO phase shows an obvious eastward shift with increase in lead time compared to observations, indicating a smaller propagating speed. However, the predicted feature for the SP mode is more realistic. Air–sea coupling on the QBW time scale is perhaps responsible for the different prediction skills for different QBWO modes. In addition, most QBWO modes have better forecasting skills in El Niño years than in La Niña years. Different dynamical mechanisms for various QBWO modes may be partially responsible for the differences in prediction skill among different QBWO modes.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2012CB955902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905035), Zhongshan University “985 Project” Phase 3 and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China (2009BAC51B05).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Xiaolong Jia, Yunyun Liu & Xiangwen Liu

  2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510275, Guangdong, China

    Song Yang

  3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA

    Hui Wang & Scott Weaver

  4. Hainan Meteorological Service, China Meteorological Administration, Haikou, Hainan, China

    Xun Li

Authors
  1. Xiaolong Jia
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  2. Song Yang
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  3. Xun Li
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  4. Yunyun Liu
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  5. Hui Wang
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  6. Xiangwen Liu
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  7. Scott Weaver
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Song Yang.

Additional information

This paper is a contribution to the Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 is a coupled global climate model and was implemented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in seasonal forecasting operations in March 2011. This Topical Collection is coordinated by Jin Huang, Arun Kumar, Jim Kinter and Annarita Mariotti.

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Jia, X., Yang, S., Li, X. et al. Prediction of global patterns of dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Clim Dyn 41, 1635–1650 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1877-7

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