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The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4

Climate Dynamics volume 42, pages 2019–2031 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

The change in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region’s socio-economic well being.

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Acknowledgments

This research forms a part of the Ph.D. dissertation of A.S. We gratefully acknowledge funding from ONR (N00014-13-1-0139) and NSF (OCE-0960770). This research was initiated during a visit by A.S. to NCAR funded by the SUNNY (Scripps/UCSD/NCAR New and Young) Program. A.S. acknowledges NCARs computational support for simulations conducted for this study. We thank Mitch Moncrieff and Brian Mapes for erudite comments, and criticism of this work. A.S. extends heartfelt thanks to Bruce Cornuelle and Ian Eisenman for many invaluable gems of wisdom on science and data analysis. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. SIO, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA

    Aneesh Subramanian & Arthur J. Miller

  2. Climate and Geophysics Division, The Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Markus Jochum

  3. Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Richard Neale

  4. Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

    Hyodae Seo

  5. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Duane Waliser

  6. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Raghu Murtugudde

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  1. Aneesh Subramanian
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  2. Markus Jochum
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  7. Raghu Murtugudde
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Correspondence to Aneesh Subramanian.

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Subramanian, A., Jochum, M., Miller, A.J. et al. The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4. Clim Dyn 42, 2019–2031 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1846-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1846-1

Keywords

  • MJO
  • Climate change
  • CCSM4