Climate Dynamics

, Volume 42, Issue 5–6, pp 1291–1308 | Cite as

Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

  • Chaoxia Yuan
  • Tomoki Tozuka
  • Jing-Jia Luo
  • Toshio Yamagata
Article

Abstract

Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes is assessed using the SINTEX-F coupled model. Despite the known difficulty in predicting subtropical climate due to large internal variability of the atmosphere and weak ocean–atmosphere coupling, it is shown for the first time that the coupled model can successfully predict the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD) 1 season ahead, and the prediction skill is better than the persistence in all the 1–12 month lead hindcast experiments. There is a prediction barrier in austral winter due to the seasonal phase locking of the SASD to austral summer. The prediction skill is lower for the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD) than for the SASD, and only slightly better than the persistence till 6-month lead because of the low predictability of the sea surface temperature anomaly in its southwestern pole. However, for some strong IOSD events in the last three decades, the model can predict them 1 season ahead. The co-occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD in 1997/1998 austral summer can be predicted from July 1st of 1997. This is because the negative sea level pressure anomalies over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean in September–October (November–December) that trigger the occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD are related to the well predicted tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). Owing to the overall good performances of the SINTEX-F model in predicting the SASD, some strong IOSD, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the prediction skill of the southern African summer precipitation is high in the SINTEX-F model.

Keywords

Seasonal prediction Subtropical SST anomalies South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole ENSO IOD Southern African summer precipitation 

References

  1. Ash KD, Matyas CJ (2012) The influences of ENSO and the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole on tropical cyclone trajectories in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 32:41–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Balmaseda MA, Alves OJ, Arribas A, Awaji T, Behringer DW, Ferry N, Fujii Y, Lee T, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Stammer D (2009) Ocean initialization for seasonal forecasts. Oceanography 22:154–159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Barnston AG, Glantz MH, He Y (1999) Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:217–243CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barnston AG, Tippett MK, L’Heureux ML, Li S, DeWitt DG (2012) Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:631–651CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2001) Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 28:327–330CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African short rains: a GCGM study. J Clim 18:4514–4530CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Boulard D, Pohl B, Crétat J, Vigaud N, Pham-Xuan T (2012) Downscaling large-scale climate variability using a regional climate model: the case of ENSO over Southern Africa. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1400-6
  8. Cane MA, Zabiak SE (1985) A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science 228:1084–1087CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Ambrizzi T (2005) Opposite phase of the Antarctic Oscillation and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity in the tropics during the austral summer. J Clim 18:702–718CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chen D, Zebiak SE, Busalacchi AJ, Cane MA (1995) An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting. Implications for predictability. Science 269:1699–1702CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chen D, Cane MA, Kaplan A, Zebiak SE, Huang D (2004) Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428:733–736CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Chiodi AM, Harrison DE (2007) Mechanisms of summertime subtropical southern Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability: on the importance of humidity anomalies and the meridional advection of water vapor. J Clim 20:4835–4853CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Cook KH (2001) A southern hemisphere wave response to ENSO with implications for southern Africa precipitation. J Atmos Sci 58:2146–2162CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dyer TGJ (1979) Rainfall along the east coast of Southern Africa, the southern oscillation and the latitude of the subtropical high pressure belt. Q J R Meteorol Soc 105:445–451CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Fauchereau N, Trzaska S, Richard Y, Roucou P, Camberlin P (2003) Sea-surface temperature co-variability in the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its connections with the atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere. J Clim 23:663–677CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Fauchereau N, Pohl B, Reason CJC, Rouault M, Richard Y (2009) Recurrent daily OLR patterns in the southern Africa/southwest Indian Ocean region, implication for South African rainfall and teleconnections. Clim Dyn 32:575–591CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Goddard L, Graham NE (1999) Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J Geophys Res 104:19099–19116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gualdi S, Navarra A, Guilyardi E, Delecluse P (2003) Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann Geophys 46:1–26Google Scholar
  19. Guilyardi E, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A (2003) Mechanisms for ENSO phase change in a coupled GCM. J Clim 16:1141–1158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Harrison MSJ (1984) A generalized classification of South African summer rain-bearing synoptic systems. J Climatol 4:547–560CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hermes JC, Reason CJC (2005) Ocean model diagnosis of interannual coevolving SST variability in the South Indian and South Atlantic Oceans. J Clim 18:2864–2882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jin EK, Kinter L III, Wang B, Kang IS, Shukla J, Kirtman BP, Kug JS, Yamagata T, Luo JJ, Schemm J, Kumar A (2008) Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 31:647–664CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Karoly DJ (1989) Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. J Clim 2:1239–1252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kataoka T, Tozuka T, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2012) The Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode simulated in the CMIP3 models. Clim Dyn 39:1385–1399Google Scholar
  26. Kirtman BP, Shukla J, Huang B, Zhu Z, Schneider EK (1997) Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean–global atmosphere system. Mon Weather Rev 125:789–808CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. L’Heureux ML, Thompson DWJ (2006) Observed relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J Clim 19:276–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lee JY, Wang B, Kang IS, Shukla J, Kumar JS, Kug JKE, Luo JJ, Yamagata T, Fu X, Alves O, Stern B, Rosati T, Park CK (2010) How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle? Clim Dyn 35:267–283CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lindesay JA (1988) South African rainfall, the Southern Oscillation, and a Southern Hemisphere semi-annual cycle. J Clim 8:17–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lindesay JA, Vogel CH (1990) Historical evidence for Southern Oscillation–southern African rainfall relationships. Int J Climtol 10:679–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Liu N, Jia Z, Chen H, Hua F, Li Y (2006) Southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Chi J Oceanol Limnol 24:125–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2003) South Pacific origin of the decadal ENSO-like variation as simulated by a coupled GCM. Geophys Res Lett 30:2250. doi:10.1029/2003GL018649 Google Scholar
  33. Luo JJ, Masson S, Roeckner E, Madec G, Yamagata T (2005a) Reducing climatology bias in an ocean–atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J Clim 18:2344–2360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Shingu S, Yamagata T (2005b) Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled AOGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecast. J Clim 18:4474–4497CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2007) Experimental forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J Clim 20:2178–2190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Clim 21:84–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M, Levy C (1998) OPA 8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manual. Tech. Rep. Note 11, LODYC/IPSL, Paris, FranceGoogle Scholar
  38. Mason SJ (1995) Sea-surface temperature-South African rainfall associations, 1910–1989. Int J Climatol 15:119–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Mason SJ, Goddard L (2001) Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:619–638CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Mo KC, White GH (1985) Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev 113:22–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2010) Climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean as revealed by self-organizing maps. Clim Dyn 35:1059–1072CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2011) On the growth and decay of the subtropical dipole mode in the South Atlantic. J Clim 24:5538–5554CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Masson S, Terray P, Luo JJ, Yamagata T (2012a) Subtropical dipole modes simulated in a coupled general circulation model. J Clim 25:4029–4047CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2012b) How is the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole excited? Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1584-2
  45. Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to African rainfall. Int J Climatol 17:117–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Pohl B, Fauchereau N, Richard Y, Rouault M, Reason CJC (2009) Interactions between synoptic, intraseasonal and interannual convective variability over Southern Africa. Clim Dyn 33:1033–1050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Ratna SB, Behera SK, Ratnam JV, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2012) An index for tropical temperate troughs over southern Africa. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1540-8
  48. Ratnam JV, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2011) A simple regional coupled model experiment for summer-time climate simulation over southern Africa. Clim Dyn 1–11. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1190-2
  49. Rayner NA, Horton EB, Parker DE, Folland CK, Hackett RB (1996) Version 2.2 of the global sea-ice and sea surface temperature data set, 1903–1994. Tech. Rep. Clim Res Tech. Note 74, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United KingdomGoogle Scholar
  50. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670 Google Scholar
  51. Reason CJC (2001) Subtropical Indian Ocean dipole events and southern African rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 28:2225–2227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Reason CJC (2002) Sensitivity of the southern African circulation to dipole sea-surface temperature patterns in the South Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 22:2225–2227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Reason CJF, Rouault M (2002) ENSO-like decadal patterns and South African rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 29:1638. doi:10.1029/2002GL014663 Google Scholar
  54. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Tech. Rep. No. 218, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  56. Rouault M, Richard Y (2005) Spatial extent and intensity of droughts in Southern Africa. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15072. doi:10.1029/2005GL022436
  57. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363Google Scholar
  58. Stockdale TN, Alves O, Boer G, Deque M, Ding Y, Kumar A, Kumar K, Landman W, Mason S, Nobre P, Scaife A, Tomoaki O, Yun WT (2009) Understanding and predicting seasonal to interannual climate variability—the producer perspective. White Paper for World Climate Conference 3Google Scholar
  59. Todd M, Washington R (1999) Circulation anomalies associated with tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the southwest Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 15:937–951CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Tozuka T, Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2005) Annual ENSO simulated in coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Dyn Atmos Ocean 39:41–60Google Scholar
  61. Valcke S, Terray L, Piacentini A (2000) The OASIS coupler user guide version 2.4. Tech. Rep. TR/CGMC/00-10, CERFACE, Toulouse, FranceGoogle Scholar
  62. Venegas SA, Mysak LA, Straub DN (1997) Atmosphere-ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic. J Clim 10:2904–2920CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Vigaud N, Richard Y, Rouault M, Fauchereau N (2009) Moisture transport between the South Atlantic Ocean and southern Africa: relationships with summer rainfall and associated dynamics. Clim Dyn 32:113–123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Walker ND (1990) Links between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela Current systems. J Geophys Res 95:3297–3319CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Xie PP, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S, Jury MR, Rao SA (2004) Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. In: Wang C, Xie SP, Carton JA (eds) Earth’s climate: the ocean–atmosphere interaction, Geophysical Monograph, vol 147. AGU, Washington D. C., pp 189–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Yuan C, Tozuka T, Miyasaka T, Yamagata T (2009) Respective influences of IOD and ENSO on the Tibetan snow cover in early winter. Clim Dyn 33:509–520CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Yuan C, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2012) IOD influence on the early winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover: diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation. Clim Dyn 39:1643–1660Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chaoxia Yuan
    • 1
    • 4
  • Tomoki Tozuka
    • 1
  • Jing-Jia Luo
    • 2
    • 3
  • Toshio Yamagata
    • 1
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Research Institute for Global ChangeJAMSTECYokohamaJapan
  3. 3.Center for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchMelbourneAustralia
  4. 4.Application LaboratoryJAMSTECYokohamaJapan

Personalised recommendations