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Explaining the hydroclimatic variability and change in the Salmon River basin

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Abstract

Climate change in the Pacific Northwest and in particular, the Salmon River Basin (SRB), is expected to bring about 3–5 °C rise in temperatures and an 8 % increase in precipitation. In order to assess the impacts due to these changes at the basin scale, this study employed an improved version of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which includes a parallel version of VIC combined with a comprehensive parameter estimation technique, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) to estimate the streamflow and other water balance components. Our calibration (1955–1975) and validation (1976–1999) of the model at the outlet of the basin, White Bird, resulted in an r2 value of 0.94 which was considered satisfactory. Subsequent center of timing analysis showed that a gradual advancement of snowmelt induced-peak flow advancing by about 10 days in the future. Historically, the flows have shown a general decline in the basin, and in the future while the magnitudes might not be greatly affected, decreasing runoff of about 3 % over the next 90 years could be expected and timing of peak flow would shift by approximately 10 days. Also, a significant reduction of snow water equivalent up to 25 %, increased evapotranspiration up to 14 %, and decreased soil moisture storages of about 2 % is predicted by the model. A steady decline in SWE/P from the majority of climate model projections for the basin was also evident. Thus, the earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration collectively implied the potential to trigger drought in the basin and could affect the quality of aquatic habitats and their spawning and a detailed investigation on these impacts is warranted.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and by the National Science Foundation under award number EPS-0814387. Partial support came from NOAA via the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium under award number NA10OAR4310218.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, MS 2060, Boise, ID, 83725, USA

    Venkataramana Sridhar, Xin Jin & W. T. A. Jaksa

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  1. Venkataramana Sridhar
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  2. Xin Jin
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  3. W. T. A. Jaksa
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Correspondence to Venkataramana Sridhar.

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Sridhar, V., Jin, X. & Jaksa, W.T.A. Explaining the hydroclimatic variability and change in the Salmon River basin. Clim Dyn 40, 1921–1937 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1467-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1467-0

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