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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 40, Issue 1–2, pp 155–173 | Cite as

Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models

  • Cathrine Fox MauleEmail author
  • Peter Thejll
  • Jens H. Christensen
  • Synne H. Svendsen
  • Jamie Hannaford
Article

Abstract

An ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the European framework project ENSEMBLES is compared with observations of low precipitation events across a number of European regions. We characterize precipitation deficits in terms of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Models that robustly describe the observations for the period 1961–2000 in given regions are identified and an assessment of the overall performance of the ensemble is provided. The results show that in general, models capture the most severe drought events and that the ensemble mean model also performs well. Some regions that appear to be more problematic to simulate well are also identified. These are relatively small regions and have rather complex topographical features. The analysis suggests that assessment of future drought occurrence based on climate change experiments in general would appear to be robust. But due to the heterogeneous and often fine-scaled structure of drought occurrence, quantitative results should be used with great care, particularly in regions with complex terrain and limited information about past drought occurrence.

Keywords

Drought ENSEMBLES ERA40 SPI sc-PDSI 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the climate modellers, who provided the RCM data to the ENSEMBLES regional data distribution centre at DMI making it accessible from http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk. Ben Lloyd-Hughes (Walker Institute, University of Reading) generated the RSPI data, provided to this project under license from the Environment Agency, England and Wales. This study received financial support from the European Union within the FP6 project WATCH (contract 036946) and the Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation and is a part of the Centre for regional Change in the Earth System (CRES).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Cathrine Fox Maule
    • 1
    Email author
  • Peter Thejll
    • 1
  • Jens H. Christensen
    • 1
  • Synne H. Svendsen
    • 1
  • Jamie Hannaford
    • 2
  1. 1.Danish Meteorological InstituteCopenhagen ØDenmark
  2. 2.Centre for Ecology and HydrologyWallingfordUK

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