Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 37, Issue 11–12, pp 2511–2539 | Cite as

An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

  • Yan XueEmail author
  • Boyin Huang
  • Zeng-Zhen Hu
  • Arun Kumar
  • Caihong Wen
  • David Behringer
  • Sudhir Nadiga
Article
First Online:

Abstract

At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979–2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5° × 0.5°) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of the CFSR compare with observations better than the GODAS in the tropical Indian Ocean and extratropics, but much worse in the tropical Atlantic, probably due to discontinuity in the deep ocean temperature and salinity caused by the six data streams of the CFSR. In terms of climate variability, the CFSR provides a good simulation of tropical instability waves and oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific, and the dominant modes of HC300 that are associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Keywords

Wind Stress Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Indian Ocean Dipole Mixed Layer Depth 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Mike Halpert and Wanqiu Wang, and the two anonymous reviewers for their thorough reviews of the manuscript. We are also thankful for (1) the altimeter products produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso with support from CNES, (2) the seasonal mean temperature and 5-year mean salinity analysis and the World Ocean Atlas by National Oceanographic Data Center, (3) the TAO mooring data by NOAA, (4) the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, (5) the ISCCP global radiative flux by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, (6) the Ocean Surface Current Analysis-Real Time (OSCAR) by Earth and Space Research, (7) the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) SST by Remote Sensing Systems.

References

  1. Antonov JI, Locarnini RA, Boyer TP, Mishonov AV, Garcia HE (2006) World Ocean Atlas 2005, vol 2, Salinity. Levitus S. (ed) NOAA Atlas NESDIS 62, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 182 ppGoogle Scholar
  2. Argo Science Team (2001) The global array of profiling floats. In: Koblinsky CJ, Smith NR (eds) Observing the ocean in the 21st century. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, London, pp 248–258Google Scholar
  3. Balmaseda M, Anderson D (2009) Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill. Geophys Res Lett 36:L01701. doi: 10.1029/2008GL035561 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Balmaseda MA, Vidard A, Anderson D (2008) The ECMWF ORA-S3 ocean analysis system. Mon Weather Rev 136:3018–3034CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Balmaseda M et al (2010) Role of the ocean observing system in an end-to-end seasonal forecasting system. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D, (eds) Proceedings of oceanobs’09: sustained ocean observations and information for society (vol 2), Venice, Italy, 21–25 September 2009. ESA Publication WPP-306, VeniceGoogle Scholar
  6. Behringer DW (2007) The global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP. In: 11th Symposium on integrated observing and assimilation systems for atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, AMS 87th annual meeting, San Antonio, Texas, 12 ppGoogle Scholar
  7. Behringer DW, Xue Y (2004) Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP. In: The Pacific Ocean. Eighth symposium on integrated observing and assimilation system for atmosphere, ocean, and land surface, AMS 84th annual meeting, Washington State Convention and Trade Center, Seattle, Washington, DC, pp 11–15Google Scholar
  8. Behringer DW, Ji M, Leetmaa A (1998) An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I. The ocean data assimilation system. Mon Weather Rev 126:1013–1021CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Berry DI, Kent EC (2009) A new air-sea interaction gridded dataset from ICOADS with uncertainty estimates. Bull Am Met Soc 90:645–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bond NA, Overland JE, Spillane M, Stabeno P (2003) Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 30(23):2183. doi: 10.1029/2003GL018597 Google Scholar
  11. Boning CW, Scheinert M, Dengg J, Biastoch A, Funk A (2006) Decadal variability of subpolar gyre transport and its reverberation in the North Atlantic overturning. Geophys Res Lett 33:L21S01. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026906
  12. Bonjean F, Lagerloef GSE (2002) Diagnostic model and analysis of the surface currents in the tropical pacific ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 32:2938–2954CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Bourlès B, Lumpkin R, McPhaden MJ, Hernandez F, Nobre P, Campos E, Yu L, Planton S, Busalacchi AJ, Moura AD, Servain J, Trotte J (2008) The PIRATA program: history, accomplishments, and future directions. Bull Am Met Soc 89:1111–1125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Carton JA, Santorelli A (2008) Global upper ocean heat content as viewed in nine analyses. J Clim 21:6015–6035CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Weaver S, Kumar A (2010) Evaluating the tropospheric analyses from NCEP’s climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn (submitted)Google Scholar
  16. Chhak KC et al (2009) Forcing of low-frequency ocean variability in the northeast Pacific. J Clim 22:1255–1276CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Conkright ME et al (1999) World ocean database 1998, documentation and quality control version 2.0. National oceanographic data center internal report 14. National Oceanographic Data Center, Silver SpringGoogle Scholar
  18. de Boyer Montegut C, Mignot J, Lazar A, Cravatte S (2007) Control of salinity on the mixed layer depth in the world ocean. 1. General description. J Geophys Res 112:C06011. doi: 10.1029/2006JC003953
  19. Derber J, Rosati A (1989) A global oceanic data assimilation system. J Phys Oceanogr 19:1333–1347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Di Lorenzo E et al (2008) North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08607. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032838 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Duing W et al (1975) Meanders and long waves in the equatorial Atlantic. Nature 257:280–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Griffies SM, Harrison MJ, Pacanowski RC, Rosati A (2004) Technical guide to MOM4, GFDL ocean group technical report no. 5. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Available on-line at http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~fms
  23. Guilyardi E, Wittenberg A, Fedorov A, Collins M, Wang C, Capotondi A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Stockdale T (2009) Understanding El Nino in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Bull Am Met Soc 90:325–340CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hakkinen S, Rhines PB (2004) Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science 304:555–559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hashizume H, Takeuchi K, Xie SP, Liu WT (2001) Local and remote atmospheric response to tropical instability waves- A global view from space. J Geophys Res 106:10173–10185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hu ZZ, Huang B, Pegion K (2008) Low-cloud errors over the southeastern Atlantic in the NCEP CFS and their association with lower-tropospheric stability and air-sea interaction. J Geophys Res 113:D12114. doi: 10.1029/2007JD009514 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Huang B, Xue Y, Behringer DW (2008) Impacts of argo salinity in NCEP global ocean data assimilation system: the tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 113:C08002. doi: 10.1029/2007JC004388 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ji M, Leetmaa A, Derber J (1995) An ocean analysis system for seasonal to interannual climate studies. Mon Wea Rev 123:460–481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Jin FF (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I. Conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811–829CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Jochum M, Murtugudde R (2006) Temperature advection by tropical instability waves. J Phys Oceanogr 36:592–605CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Josey SA, Kent EC, Taylor PK (2002) Wind stress forcing of the ocean in the SOC climatology: Comparisons with the NCEP–NCAR, ECMWF, UWM/COADS, and Hellerman and Rosenstein Datasets. J Phys Oceanogr 32:1993–2019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Am Met Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kanamitsu M, Ebitsuzaki W, Woolen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Met Soc 83:1631–1643CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Keppenne CL, Rienecker MM, Jacob JP, Kovach R (2008) Error covariance modeling in the GMAO ocean ensemble kalman filter. Mon Wea Rev 136:2964–2982CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kessler WS, McPhaden MJ, Weickmann KM (1995) Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J Geophys Res 100:10613–10631CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kohl A, Stammer D (2008) Decadal sea level changes in the 50-year GECCO ocean synthesis. J Clim 21:1876–1890CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Large WG, Yeager SG (2009) The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Clim Dyn 33:341–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Levitus S (1986) Annual cycle of salinity and salt storage in the World Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 16:322–343CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Garcia HE, Mishonov AV (2009) Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys Res Lett 36:L07608. doi: 10.1029/2008GL037155 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Garcia HE (2006) World Ocean Atlas 2005, volume 1. Temperature. In: Levitus S (ed) NOAA Atlas NESDIS 61, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 182 ppGoogle Scholar
  41. Long CS, Butler AH, Lin R, Wild J, Yang SK, Zhou S, Liu H (2010) Evaluation of the stratosphere in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn (submitted)Google Scholar
  42. Lukas R, Lindstrom E (1991) The mixed layer of the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. J Geophys Res 96:3343–3357CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Mantua NJ, Hare SJ, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Amer Met Soc 78:1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. McPhaden MJ, Yu X (1999) Equatorial waves and the 1997–98 El Niño. Geophys Res Lett 26:2961–2964CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. McPhaden MJ et al (1998) The tropical ocean–global atmosphere (TOGA) observing system: a decade of progress. J Geophys Res 103:14,169–14,240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. McPhaden MJ et al (2009) RAMA: the research moored array for African–Asian–Australian monsoon analysis and prediction. Bull Amer Met Soc 90:459–480CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Meehl GA et al (2009) Decadal prediction: can it be skillful? Bull Am Met Soc 90:1467–1485CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Qiao L, Weisberg RH (1995) Tropical instability wave kinematics: observations from the tropical instability wave experiment. J Geophys Res 100:8677–8694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Rao SA, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2002) Interannual subsurface variability in the tropical Indian Ocean with a special emphasis on the Indian Ocean dipole. Deep Sea Res II 49:1549–1572CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 Google Scholar
  51. Renfrew IA, Moore GWK, Guest PS, Bumke K (2002) A comparison of surface layer and surface turbulent-flux observations over the Labrador Sea with ECMWF analyses and NCEP reanalyses. J Phys Oceanogr 32:383–400CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Risien CM, Chelton DB (2008) A global climatology of surface wind and wind stress fields from eight years of QuikSCAT scatterometer data. J Phys Oceanogr 38:2379–2413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Met Soc 91:1015–1057CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363Google Scholar
  57. Schneider EK, Huang B, Zhu Z, DeWitt DG, Kinter JL III, Kirtman B, Shukla J (1999) Ocean data assimilation, initialization, and predictions of ENSO with a coupled GCM. Mon Wea Rev 127:1187–1207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Seo KH, Xue Y (2005) MJO-related oceanic Kelvin waves and the ENSO cycle: a study with the NCEP global ocean data assimilation system. Geophys Res Lett 32:L07712. doi: 10.1029/2005GL022511 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Smith SR, Legler D, Verzone KV (2001) Quantifying uncertainties in NCEP reanalyses using high-quality research vessel observations. J Clim 14:4062–4072CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Sprintall J, Tomczak M (1992) Evidence of the barrier layer in the surface layer of the tropics. J Geophys Res 97:7305–7316CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Stammer D, Ueyoshi K, Large W, Josey S, Wunsch C (2004) Estimating air–sea fluxes of heat, freshwater and momentum through global ocean data assimilation. J Geophys Res 109. doi: 10.1029/2003JC002082
  62. Taylor P (ed) (2000) Final report of the joint WCRP/SCOR Working Group on air–sea fluxes: intercomparison and validation of ocean–atmosphere energy flux fields, WCRP-112, WMO/TDNo. 1036. World Climate Research Programme, 303 ppGoogle Scholar
  63. Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 9:303–319Google Scholar
  64. Trenberth KE, Stepaniak DP, Hurrell JW, Fiorino M (2001) Quality of reanalyses in the tropics. J Clim 14:1499–1510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteor Soc 131:2961–3012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Walker G, Bliss E (1932) World weather V. Mem Roy Meteor Soc 4:53–84Google Scholar
  67. Wang W, McPhaden MJ (1999) The surface-layer heat balance in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I. Mean seasonal cycle. J Phys Oceanogr 29:1812–1831CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Wang W, Xie P, Yoo SH, Xue Y, Kumar A, Wu X (2010) An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Clim Dyn (Conditionally accepted)Google Scholar
  69. Willis JK, Roemmich D, Cornuelle B (2004) Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales. J Geophys Res 109:C12036. doi: 10.1029/2003JC002260 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Wittenberg AT (2004) Extended wind stress analyses for ENSO. J Clim 17:2526–2540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Wyrtki K (1985) Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Nin˜o cycles. J Geophys Res 90:7129–7132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Xue Y, Leetmaa A, Ji M (2000) ENSO prediction with Markov models: the impact of sea level. J Clim 13:849–871CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Xue Y et al (2010) Ocean state estimation for global ocean monitoring: ENSO and beyond ENSO. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds) Proceedings of ocean obs’09: sustained ocean observations and information for society (vol 2), Venice, Italy, 21–25 September 2009, ESA Publication WPP-306Google Scholar
  74. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S, Jury M, Rao SA (2004) Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. In: Wang C, Xie S-P, Carton JA (eds) Earth climate: the ocean–atmosphere interaction. Geophys Monogr 147, AGU, Washington, DC, pp 189–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Yu L, Weller RA (2007) Objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes (OAFlux) for the global ocean. Bull Am Met Soc 88:527–539CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamical algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Clim 11:2628–2644CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Zhang R (2008) Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20705. doi: 10.1029/2008GL035463 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Zhang C, Gottschalck J (2002) SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific. J Clim 15:2429–2445CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Zhang Y, Rossow W, Lacis A, Oinas V, Mishchenko M (2004) Calculation of radiative flux profiles from the surface to top-of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: refinements of the radiative transfer model and input data. J Geophys Res 109. doi: 10.1029/2003JD004457
  80. Zhang S, Harrison MJ, Rosati A, Wittenberg A (2007) System design and evaluation of coupled ensemble data assimilation for global oceanic studies. Mon Wea Rev 135:3541–3564CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag (outside the USA) 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yan Xue
    • 1
    Email author
  • Boyin Huang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Zeng-Zhen Hu
    • 1
  • Arun Kumar
    • 1
  • Caihong Wen
    • 1
    • 2
  • David Behringer
    • 3
  • Sudhir Nadiga
    • 3
  1. 1.Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAACamp SpringsUSA
  2. 2.Wyle Information SystemCamp SpringsUSA
  3. 3.Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAACamp SpringsUSA

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options