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A mechanism for long-term changes of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity

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Abstract

Although previous studies reported upward trends in the basin-wide average lifetime, annual frequency, proportion of intense hurricanes and annual accumulated power dissipation index of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) over the past 30 years, the basin-wide intensity did not increase significantly with the rising sea surface temperature (SST). Observational analysis and numerical simulation conducted in this study suggest that Sahel rainfall is the key to understanding of the long-term change of Atlantic TC intensity. The long-term changes of the basin-wide TC intensity are generally associated with variations in Sahara air layer (SAL) activity and vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR), both of which are highly correlated with Sahel rainfall. The drying Sahel corresponds to an equatorward shift in the African easterly jet and African easterly wave activity, introducing the SAL to lower latitudes and increasing the MDR vertical wind shear. As a result, Atlantic TCs are more vulnerable to the suppressing effects of the SAL and vertical wind shear. Since the SST warming, especially in the tropical Indian Ocean, is a dominant factor for the Sahel drying that occurred over the past 30 years, it is suggested that the remote effect of SST warming is important for the long-term change of Atlantic TC intensity. Although influence of the AMO warm phase that started in the early 1990s alone can provide a favorable condition for TC intensification, its influence may have been offset by the influence of the ongoing SST warming, particularly in the Indian Ocean. As a result, there was no significant trend observed in the basin-wide average and peak intensity of Atlantic TCs.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the typhoon research project (2009CB421503) of the national basic research program (the 973 Program) of China, the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC grant No. 408750387), and the social commonweal research program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (GYHY200806009). This research was also supported by Dr. Ramesh Kakar (NASA HQ) through the NASA NAMMA and EOS projects. The authors appreciate Dr. Xiouhua Fu for his help in the implementation of the ECHAM4 AGCM at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. The authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments.

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  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu, China

    Liguang Wu & Li Tao

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  1. Liguang Wu
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Wu, L., Tao, L. A mechanism for long-term changes of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity. Clim Dyn 36, 1851–1864 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0768-4

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