Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change evolution of the hydrological balance of the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas: impact of climate model resolution

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study we have evaluated the ability of the CNRM-ARPEGE CLIMATE V4 general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the present-day hydrological budget components [precipitation minus evaporation over the sea (P − E) and fresh water runoff (R)] over the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian sea basins. Three simulations were performed which were exactly identical except for horizontal resolution, allowing for a unique opportunity to isolate and study the effects of resolution on simulating the hydrological components. Model calculated values of runoff and P − E were compared to a variety of data sources and show that the model’s performance improves significantly with increased resolution, especially in regions with mountainous terrain. Corresponding future climate simulations (following the IPCC A2 scenario) were also performed and indicate that while resolution does not seem to have a significant effect on the qualitative impacts of future climate change on the hydrologic balance, quantitatively the results vary significantly among the models. These results suggests that high resolution global models, or downscaling models such as RCMs, are necessary in order to assess the magnitude of future changes in the hydrological components of these basins.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alpert P, Ben-Gai T, Baharad A, Benjamini Y, Yekutieli D, Colacino M, Diodato L, Ramis C, Homar V, Romero R, Michaelides S, Manes A (2002) The parodoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values. Geophys Res Lett 29(11). doi:10.1029/2001GL013554

  • Arpe K, Leroy S (2007) The Caspian sea level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled. Q Int 173–174:144–152. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baschek B, Send U, Lafuente J, Candela J (2001) Transport estimates in the strait of Gibraltar with a tidal inverse model. J Geophys Res 106:31033–31044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bethoux (1993) Mediterranean sapropel formation, dynamic and climatic viewpoints. Atmos Ocean 16:127–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Bethoux J (1979) Budgets of the mediterranean sea. Their dependence on the local climate and on the characteristics of the atlantic waters. Oceanol Acta 2:157–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Bethoux J, Gentili B (1999) Functioning of the Mediterranean sea: past and present changes related to freshwater input and climate changes. J Mar Syst 20:33–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bougeault P (1985) A simple parameterization of the large-scale effects of cumulus convection. Mon Weather Rev 113:2108–2121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boukthir M, Barnier B (2000) Seasonal and interannual variations in the surface freshwater flux in the Mediterranean sea from the ecmwf re-analysis project. J Mar Syst 24:343–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bryden H, Candela J, Kinder T (1994) Exchange through the strait of Gibralter. Oceanography 33:201–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Candela J (2001) The Mediterranean water and the global circulation. In: Observing and modelling the Global Ocean. Academic Press, San Diego

    Google Scholar 

  • Castellari S, Pinardi N, Leaman K (1998) A model study of air–sea interactions in the Mediterranean sea. J Mar Syst 18:89–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cruzado A (1985) Chemistry of Mediterranean waters. In: Margalef R (ed) Western Mediterranean. Pargamon Press, Oxford, pp 126–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Déqué M, Dreveton C, Braun A, Cariolle D (1994) The arpege-ifs atmosphere model: a contribution to the french community climate modelling. Clim Dyn 10:249–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Planton S, Royer J, Stephenson D, Tyteca S, Kergoat L, Lafont S, Betts R (2000) The importance of vegetation feedbacks in doubled-CO2 time-slice experiments. J Geophys Res 105:14841–14861

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elguindi N, Giorgi F (2005) Simulating multi-decadal variability of Caspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs. Clim Dyn 26:167–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elguindi N, Giorgi F (2007) Simulating future Caspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs. Clim Dyn 28:365–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • French Ministry of Environment (2006) Hydro. Data were downloaded at: http://hydro.rnde.tm.fraccueil.htm

  • Garcia-Lafuente J, Sanchez-Roman GSA, Diaz-Delrio G, Sanchez-Garrido J (2007) Recent observations of seasonal variability of the Mediterranean outflow in the strait of Gibraltar. J Geophys Res 112:1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Georgievsky V, Tsytsenko K, Shalygin A (2003) Assessment of surface water inflow to the Caspian Sea—Hydrometeorological issues of problem of the Caspian sea and its basin—Spb. Hydrometeoizdat 217–229 (in Russian)

  • Gibelin A-L, Déqué M (2003) Anthropogenic climate change over the mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Clim Dyn 20:327–339

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33(8). doi:10.1029/2006GL025734

  • Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal J (2004) Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. i. present-day climate (1961–1990). Clim Dyn 22:733–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holdridge L (1959) Simple method for determining potential evapotranspiration from temperature data. Science 130(3375):572

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Brring L, Christensen OB, Christensen JH, de Castro M, Dqu M, Giorgi F, Hagemann S, Hirschi M, Jones R, Kjellstrm E, Lenderink G, Rockel B, Snchez E, Schr C, Seneviratne SI, Somot S, van Ulden A, van den Hurk B (2007) An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Clim Change 81:31–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Josey S (2003) Changes in the heat and freshwater forcing of the eastern Mediterreanean and their influence on deep water formation. J Geophys Res 108:1–18. doi:10.1029/2003JC001778

    Google Scholar 

  • Kara A, Wallcraft A, Hurlburt H, Stanev E (2008) Air–sea fluxes and river discharges in the Black sea with a focus on the danube and bosphorus. J Mar Syst. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.11.010

  • Lacombe H, Tchernia P (1972) Caracteres hydrologiques et circulation des eaux en Mediterranee. The Mediterranean Sea: a Natural Sedimentation Laboratory. D.J. Stanley

  • Lott F (1999) Alleviation of stationary biases in a gcm through a mountain drag parameterization scheme and a simple representation of mountain lift forces. Mon Weather Rev 125:788–801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lott F, Miller M (1997) A new subgrid-scale orographic drag parametrization: its formulation and testing. Q J R Meteorol Soc 123:101–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ludwig W, Dumont E, Meybeck M, Heusser S (2009) River discharge of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black sea: major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Prog Oceanogr 80:199–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Manca B, d’Alcal MR, Theocharis A, Brenner GBS, Ozsoy E (1999) The eastern Mediterranean in the 80’s and in the 90’s: the big transition in the intermediate and deep circulations. Dyn Atmos Oceans 29:365–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Struglia M (2002) The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region and implications for the water budget of the Mediterranean sea. J Clim 15:1674–1690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Zeng N, Yoon J, Artale V, Navarra A, Alpert P, Li L (2008) Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and cmip3 simulations. Environ Res Lett 3. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001

  • Medhycos (2001) The Mediterranean hydrological cycle observing system. Medhycos phase ii, period 2002–2005. http://medhycos.mpl.ird.fr

  • Millot C, Candela J-L, Tber Y (2006) Large warming and salinification of the Mediterranean outflow due to changes in its composition. Deep Sea Res 53:656–666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morcrette J (1990) Impact of changes to the radiation transfer parameterizations plus cloud optical properties in the ecmwf model. Mon Weather Rev 118:847–873

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myers P, Haines K, Josey S (1998) On the importance of the choice of wind stress forcing to the modeling of the Mediterranean sea circulation. J Geophys Res 103, 15,729–15,749

    Google Scholar 

  • New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nixon S (2003) Replacing the nile: are anthropogenic nutrients providing the fertility once brought to the mediterranean by a great river? Ambio 32:30–39

    Google Scholar 

  • Pike J (1964) The estimation of annual runoff from meteorological data in a tropical climate. J Hydrol 2:116–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Potter R, Lozier S (2004) On the warming and salinification of the Mediterranean outflow waters in the north Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 31:l01202. doi:10.1029/2003GL018161

  • Poulos M, Drakpooulos P (2001) A reassessment of the Mediterranean river runoff. Rapp Comm Int Mer Med 36:76

    Google Scholar 

  • Ricard J, Royer J (1993) A statistical cloud scheme for use in an agcm. Ann Geophys 11:1095–1115

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov S (1994) Global and regional climate interaction: the Caspian Sea experience. Kluwer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Roether W, Klein B, Manca BB, Theocharis A, Kioroglou S (2007) Transient eastern Mediterranean deep waters in response to the massive dense-water output of the Aegean sea in the 1990s. Prog Oceanogr 74:540–571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohling E, Bryden H (1992) Man-induced salinity and temperature increases in western mediterranean deep water. J Geophys Res 97:11919–11198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez-Gomez E, Somot S, Josey SA, Elguindi N, Déqué M (2009a) Evaluation of the Mediterranean sea water and heat budgets as simulated by an ensemble of high resolution regional climate models. J Geophys Res Oceans (submitted)

  • Sanchez-Gomez E, Somot S, Mariotti A (2009b) Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi:10.1029/2009GL040120

  • Schroeder K, Ribotti A, Borghini M, Sorgente R, Perilli A, Gasparini GP (2008) An extensive western Mediterranean deep water renewal between 2004 and 2006. Geophys Res Lett 35. doi:10.1029/2008GL035146

  • Sheffield J, Wood E (2008) Projected changes in drought occurence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario scenario, ipcc ar4 simulations. Clim Dyn 31:79–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiklomanov I, Georgievsky V, Shalygin A (2003) Reasons of the caspian sea level rise—hydrometeorological issues of problems of the Caspian sea and its basin—Spb. Hydrometeoizdat 254–266 (in Russian)

  • Skliris N, Lascaratos A (2004) Impacts of the Nile river damming on the thermohaline circulation and water mass characteristics of the Mediterranean sea. J Meteorol Soc 52:121–143

    Google Scholar 

  • Somot S, Sevault F, Déqué M (2006) Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean sea for the twenty-first century using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Clim Dyn 27:851–879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stanev E, Traon P-YL, Peneva E (2000) Sea level variations and their dependency on meteorological and hydrological forcing: analysis of altimeter and surface data for the black sea. J Geophys Res 105:17203–17216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Struglia M, Mariotti A, Filograsso A (2004) River discharge into the Mediterranean sea: climatology and aspects of the observed variability. J Clim 17:4740–4751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thorpe R, Bigg G (2000) Modelling the sensitivity of the Mediterranean outflow to anthropogenically forced climate change. Clim Dyn 16:355–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tixeront J (1970) Le bilan hydrologique de la mer noire et de la mer méditerranéé. Cah Oceanogr 3:227–236

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomczak M, Godfrey J (1994) Regional oceanography: an introduction. Pargamon, Great Britain, pp 300–309

    Google Scholar 

  • Trigo I, Davies T, Bigg G (2000) Decline in Mediterranean rainfall caused by weakening of Mediterranean cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 27(18). doi:10.1029/2000GL011526

  • Tsimplis M, Baker T (2000) Sea level drop in the Mediterranean sea: an indicator of deep-water salinity and temperature changes? Geophys Res Lett 27:1731–1734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uppala S, Kallberg P, Simmons A, Andrae U, Bechtold VDC, Fiorino M, Gibson J, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan R, Adersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M, Beljaars A, Berg LVD, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins B, Isaksen L, Janssen P, Jenne R, McNally A, Mahfouf J-F, Morcrette J-J, Rayner N, Saunders R, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The era-40 reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131, 2961–3012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valero F, Doblas F, Gonzales J (1996) On long-term evolution of seasonal precipitation in southwestern europe. Ann Geophys 14:976–985

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vorosmarty C, Fekete B, Tucker B (1998) River discharge database, version1.1 (rivdis v1.0 supplement). Available through the institute for the study of earth, oceans, and space/university of new hampshire, durham nh (USA)

  • Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Burkard R, Patrikas I, Maheras P (2000) Connection between the large-scale 500 hpa geopotentiel height fields and precipitation over greece during wintertime. Clim Res 14, 129–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zervakis V, Georgopoulos D, Drakopoulos P (2000) The role of the North Aegean in triggering the recent eastern Mediterranean climatic changes. J Geophys Res 105:26103–26116

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions which greatly helped to improve this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire D’Aerologie, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Nellie Elguindi

  2. Météo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

    S. Somot & M. Déqué

  3. CNRS, CEFREM, UMR 5110 CNRS, University of Perpignan, Perpignan, France

    W. Ludwig

Authors
  1. Nellie Elguindi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S. Somot
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. M. Déqué
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. W. Ludwig
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nellie Elguindi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Elguindi, N., Somot, S., Déqué, M. et al. Climate change evolution of the hydrological balance of the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas: impact of climate model resolution. Clim Dyn 36, 205–228 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0715-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0715-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation